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/ES WEEKLY: Week of 10/21-10/27...."Party Like It's 1999"

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  • /ES WEEKLY: Week of 10/21-10/27...."Party Like It's 1999"

    Should be an interesting week. I'm still bearish ST. Looking for a "fall correction"/shake before beginning of the "Halloween Effect"(Nov.-April). The fall corrections tend to be sharp. Then looking for 1780+ by Dec. 3rd still.

    Yes, this market is a strong one. Not top calling, just trading.

    "Anyone who thinks there's safety in numbers hasn't looked at the stock market pages. "....Irene Peter

  • #2
    Push
    "Anyone who thinks there's safety in numbers hasn't looked at the stock market pages. "....Irene Peter

    Comment


    • #3
      The fact that the market isn't really using any opportunity to take profits, is a telling one. Perhaps just relieving pressure for one more push higher before a small pullback. Its too soon for a HCL anyway...
      Last edited by Tex; 10-21-2013, 10:19 AM.
      Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

      Comment


      • #4
        Poly, can we get this stickied and the prior week's released?
        “Should you fail to pilot your own ship, don't be surprised at what inappropriate port you find yourself docked.” ― Tom Robbins, Jitterbug Perfume

        Comment


        • #5
          i am st bearish as volume is very weak today however momentum weeklies for sf and dailies t3 and sf are strong and we are not quite there yet and may take 2-4 days more before bending let alone red and with that from flat i have gone short into the close noting that credit vix fx ain't buying it except aud and eur against jpy

          am quite far from workstation so i am uncoorperative with charts however on dailies /es green is banging against upper but rising channel and we closed on it.

          why is it so quiet today?

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by ambulance View Post
            i am st bearish as volume is very weak today however momentum weeklies for sf and dailies t3 and sf are strong and we are not quite there yet and may take 2-4 days more before bending let alone red and with that from flat i have gone short into the close noting that credit vix fx ain't buying it except aud and eur against jpy

            am quite far from workstation so i am uncoorperative with charts however on dailies /es green is banging against upper but rising channel and we closed on it.

            why is it so quiet today?
            NFP data tomorrow, so everyone is just waiting for an outdated, useless report which will result is serious volatility.
            Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

            Comment


            • #7
              forecast's I am watching right now, #2 I am watching close it fullfills the next weekly high above Monday for rth, and a drop off or at least flag for overbought. should know today which one of these will be close. I have 48.5 50.25 and 54.75 ahead of the 57 pivot resistance. Not fading Monday high but may fade today's high if we get enough of a blow off. GLT!!

              Edit add: May high 1670.75 + 27.75 = aug high 1698.5 + 28.25 = sep high 1726.75. Sep high + 28 = 1754.75 = 25% extension of previous week, we should have a above 50% of hitting 1755 this week. (simple exercise for grins) Edit: 12:13CT was in a hurry this morning fixed my typo on 55 vs 54.75, now that half the day is over, not fulfilling the 54.75 should bring the upper half of last week range back into play. Excellent day for trading both sides of the tape. I am not seeing selling into highs quite the contrary they have been buying the range and supply is not hitting the market, Delta has been week since the low. vxx on the other hand continues to show strong demand. limiting spy/es upside moves for the moment at least.
              Attached Files
              Last edited by offshoreman; 10-22-2013, 12:13 PM.
              Say your prayers little one, Don't forget my son To include everyone, I tuck you in Warm within, Keep you free from sin, 'Til the sandman he comes Sleep with one eye open, Gripping your pillow tight, Exit: light, Enter: night, Take my hand, We're off to never never-land

              Comment


              • #8
                Short the ES at 1752.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by GEB View Post
                  Short the ES at 1752.
                  Could be good for PM,inverse correlation per POLY, MAY BE...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by GEB View Post
                    Short the ES at 1752.
                    Covered half of position at 1747.50. Will let the other half ride until second target around 1727.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      thanks offshoreman #2

                      bar 9 daily

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        its looking right J. nice day at least to catch both sides.
                        Say your prayers little one, Don't forget my son To include everyone, I tuck you in Warm within, Keep you free from sin, 'Til the sandman he comes Sleep with one eye open, Gripping your pillow tight, Exit: light, Enter: night, Take my hand, We're off to never never-land

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Looks like a Half Cycle top here (SnP), far too stretched.
                          "Stop thinking of income in terms of your time"

                          The Financial Tap - Cycles Analysis & Trading

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Poly View Post
                            Looks like a Half Cycle top here (SnP), far too stretched.
                            Hopefully a higher high coming first, and then a swing high... right now, a short trade would have the stop 18 points away... no bueno.
                            Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              SPY top of SOS list so far

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Originally posted by Sophia View Post
                                SPY top of SOS list so far
                                when it comes to gold that thing is an absolute crapshoot...is it relevant for the snp from your experience?
                                Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                  Hopefully a higher high coming first, and then a swing high... right now, a short trade would have the stop 18 points away... no bueno.
                                  very heavy & fast selling as soon as 1750s were hit, 10+ handle down. toppy action for a quick, deeper drop I think.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                    when it comes to gold that thing is an absolute crapshoot...is it relevant for the snp from your experience?

                                    We need few days of SoS to be a tell

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      The dips are being bought aggressively, even intraday.
                                      I think using overbought metrics in a runaway move like this is a gamble.
                                      At some point it has to correct, but it all starts with a swing high, and we dont have one yet.
                                      Patience.
                                      Intraday though, there are lots of opportunities if one is nimble enough.
                                      Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        110 SnP points in 10 days... incredible strength, needs to be respected.
                                        Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                        Comment


                                        • #21
                                          Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                          The dips are being bought aggressively, even intraday.
                                          I think using overbought metrics in a runaway move like this is a gamble.
                                          At some point it has to correct, but it all starts with a swing high, and we dont have one yet.
                                          Patience.
                                          Intraday though, there are lots of opportunities if one is nimble enough.
                                          Agreed, back to testing highs.. this train seems unstoppable.

                                          Starting to feel a bit euphoric though on twitter feeds.

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            I know you don't like price targets much Tex, but no shock to me if we see 1900+ by year end.

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                              I know you don't like price targets much Tex, but no shock to me if we see 1900+ by year end.
                                              Not saying it will happen, but 8.5% in two months should not shock anyone.
                                              Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                              Comment


                                              • #24
                                                Very fun day in ES. They just kept buying that lower range today once a big seller came in on VXX the damn opened up on the upside again. No positional for me now just daytrading until we get further directional clues, its overbought but we have barley reacted to any of it. NYMO ect ect including the delinator which has been oversold for 3 days. Be a pig as mr piggy would say!! Oink oink Seatlesun.
                                                Say your prayers little one, Don't forget my son To include everyone, I tuck you in Warm within, Keep you free from sin, 'Til the sandman he comes Sleep with one eye open, Gripping your pillow tight, Exit: light, Enter: night, Take my hand, We're off to never never-land

                                                Comment


                                                • #25
                                                  very

                                                  that's one method being classed as following the "trend"

                                                  fx was not weak all day

                                                  rotated some of today's shit into another positional add ST short

                                                  cheerios man

                                                  Comment


                                                  • #26
                                                    Closing strong can only mean one thing.. that a higher high should be in the cards for tomorrow...
                                                    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                    Comment


                                                    • #27
                                                      Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                      I know you don't like price targets much Tex, but no shock to me if we see 1900+ by year end.
                                                      So 35% gain on SPX for 2013? I'm not taking that bet 24+ months into this bull, and 55 months if you are counting since 2009.

                                                      5 best years since 1950:

                                                      1954, +45.02%.....followed 2 1/2 years of basing.
                                                      1958, +38.06%.....1st year following a bear(5th worst bear).
                                                      1995, +34.11%......followed a year of basing.
                                                      1975, +31.55% ....1st year following a bear(2nd worst bear).
                                                      1997, +31.01%.....followed a year of basing.
                                                      "Anyone who thinks there's safety in numbers hasn't looked at the stock market pages. "....Irene Peter

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #28
                                                        Originally posted by Norseman View Post
                                                        So 35% gain on SPX for 2013? I'm not taking that bet 24+ months into this bull, and 55 months if you are counting since 2009.

                                                        5 best years since 1950:

                                                        1954, +45.02%.....followed 2 1/2 years of basing.
                                                        1958, +38.06%.....1st year following a bear(5th worst bear).
                                                        1995, +34.11%......followed a year of basing.
                                                        1975, +31.55% ....1st year following a bear(2nd worst bear).
                                                        1997, +31.01%.....followed a year of basing.
                                                        The thing is though, we're heading into holliday season and its still pedal to the metal on the printing press.

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #29
                                                          Originally posted by GEB View Post
                                                          Covered half of position at 1747.50. Will let the other half ride until second target around 1727.
                                                          Covered a little more at 1738. At 1727 I will cover the rest and go long.

                                                          Good luck

                                                          Comment


                                                          • #30
                                                            Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                            The thing is though, we're heading into holliday season and its still pedal to the metal on the printing press.
                                                            I agree market strong and seasonality is upon us. Usually have a sharp correction in Fall prior to the Santa push. This chart allows for that. It has what I believe this is the best case scenario for year-end target. Based on prior bulls, seasonal, DNA(mimic of prior bulls paths) etc.

                                                            Still in the bullish channel off +1/+2 Sigma.

                                                            /ES
                                                            "Anyone who thinks there's safety in numbers hasn't looked at the stock market pages. "....Irene Peter

                                                            Comment


                                                            • #31
                                                              finally starting correcting , #2 into the end of the week looking for between 2 and 3% pullback and a choppy consolidation possible into next week with fomc. GLT!!
                                                              Say your prayers little one, Don't forget my son To include everyone, I tuck you in Warm within, Keep you free from sin, 'Til the sandman he comes Sleep with one eye open, Gripping your pillow tight, Exit: light, Enter: night, Take my hand, We're off to never never-land

                                                              Comment


                                                              • #32
                                                                Almost had a swing on the snp...close, but no cigar...yet.
                                                                Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                                Comment


                                                                • #33
                                                                  We had 9 straight days in the s&p where it broke the previous day's high without breaking the previous day's low. Basically 9 straight days of higher highs and higher lows. It seems like today we will break the previous day's low, but it just shows how strong this market is. Doing a quick research, you have to go back to 2004 and then 1995 to find a streak at least as big as this one.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                  • #34
                                                                    Overnight es inventory is net short relative to yesterday close and I would think nervous considering the last few days.Short covering off the open by weak shorts could start if we don't break the overnight low soon.there is a descending trendline from yesterday's high that crosses today's pivot(48.5) and yesterday's vpoc at 1749.Will be a good place to watch for resistance and a guage of sentiment along with the Val at 45.5.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                    • #35
                                                                      Originally posted by GEB View Post
                                                                      Covered a little more at 1738. At 1727 I will cover the rest and go long.

                                                                      Good luck
                                                                      Moving my buy-to-cover order up to 1732. Buy order to go long still at 1727.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Crude inventory due out at 10:30

                                                                        + Build of 5.2 mil barrels
                                                                        Last edited by Whitecap; 10-23-2013, 09:36 AM.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Finally...a swing high in the snp.
                                                                          Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                          • #38
                                                                            Five 15 min bars without a close below the overnight low so far.37.50 to to crack and hold so far.

                                                                            + last four have had lower highs so far and working fifth.this may be it.long wick so far.
                                                                            + and an inverted hammer
                                                                            Last edited by Whitecap; 10-23-2013, 10:22 AM.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                            • #39
                                                                              There seems to be a pattern developing of sinking low during the middle (US trading session) market session and then recovering by the close... dips are being bought. That needs to end for the market to actually correct.
                                                                              Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                              • #40
                                                                                Half Cycle

                                                                                Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                                                                Finally...a swing high in the snp.
                                                                                n/t
                                                                                BaFFeledW/BSy'all

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  MELT UP over night for the futures. Unstoppable.. guess Wednesday was the dip to buy.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    Nice Thread, just found it!

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by GEB View Post
                                                                                      Moving my buy-to-cover order up to 1732. Buy order to go long still at 1727.
                                                                                      Moving buy to cover order down to 1729.75.

                                                                                      I am cancelling my order to go long for now. Will wait further action to decide on order placement.

                                                                                      Good luck

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        was watching the asian close and they scraped through +4.75, and europe failed to add 12 more into our usa bell

                                                                                        nice rally to fade

                                                                                        what surprised me was all fx falling 2 hours before open except aud proxying resources

                                                                                        pullback is 0 sig daily at 1699 /es and if we go deeper at the end of this week it will take another month before we check for psar dangers which i doubt

                                                                                        cheerios

                                                                                        +: my eyes fail me -- aud/nzd was the only strength, but anyway eur/jpy is trying to lead strength
                                                                                        Last edited by ambulance; 10-24-2013, 09:02 AM.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                        • #45
                                                                                          VERY INTERESTING DISCUSSION TODAY, so . . .

                                                                                          Originally posted by Norseman View Post
                                                                                          So 35% gain on SPX for 2013? I'm not taking that bet 24+ months into this bull, and 55 months if you are counting since 2009.

                                                                                          5 best years since 1950:

                                                                                          1954, +45.02%.....followed 2 1/2 years of basing.
                                                                                          1958, +38.06%.....1st year following a bear(5th worst bear).
                                                                                          1995, +34.11%......followed a year of basing.
                                                                                          1975, +31.55% ....1st year following a bear(2nd worst bear).
                                                                                          1997, +31.01%.....followed a year of basing.
                                                                                          . . . perhaps B&BT-ers will find this 17 minute talk as interesting as I did:

                                                                                          Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis | Video on TED.com

                                                                                          Ellsworth
                                                                                          [COLOR="#008000"][FONT=Fixedsys][I]Looking Critically,Ellsworth

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                          • #46
                                                                                            Potential dragon on 15m cl chart needs to clear the 96. 53/4 area to get going first target would be 96.80-85 area.if it fails I would be looking toward 94.60 ish.away from desk right now and on mobile so don't have chart or exact numbers.could be a good retracement considering size of sell off.good luck
                                                                                            Last edited by Whitecap; 10-24-2013, 10:52 AM.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                            • #47
                                                                                              Consolidating before surge up through 1760 to 1780? Dips getting bought relentlessly still.

                                                                                              Keith McCullough has flipped bearish recently though, has a very good track record.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                              • #48
                                                                                                The swing high is holding, for now... very temporarily. Every dip is being bought without question.
                                                                                                Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                • #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                                                                                  The swing high is holding, for now... very temporarily. Every dip is being bought without question.
                                                                                                  This market ain't going down until nobody dares/cares to short anymore.

                                                                                                  Which means the next big drop will be one nasty SOB.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                  • #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                                                                    This market ain't going down until nobody dares/cares to short anymore.

                                                                                                    Which means the next big drop will be one nasty SOB.
                                                                                                    The close is key... the tide looks to be changing.
                                                                                                    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                    • #51
                                                                                                      Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                                                                                      The close is key... the tide looks to be changing.
                                                                                                      should have slept in today, very low volume accross the board

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                      • #52
                                                                                                        Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                                                                        should have slept in today, very low volume accross the board
                                                                                                        Too much sleep isnt good for you.
                                                                                                        There goes the buying/ramp into the close.
                                                                                                        This thing isnt done.
                                                                                                        Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                        • #53
                                                                                                          I am glad I have been out of office most of the last two days LOL I may just take off tomorrow as well
                                                                                                          Model on es is neutral here, in a bullish trend that doesn't say much, NQ obviously went bullish, YM is bullish with a lot more of expected weekly range left to go only used 54% up this week on the upside. NQ has used 170% of its weekly expected range. ES just 60%. DJT is strong with oil being weak. I saw some tweets about that, just an oil play, does it matter!! LOL Delinator is day 6 of an upcycle, granted it started without positive divergence but it has been shrugged off with higher prices. accumulators are all positive for spy qqq IWM ect since yesterday afternoon. I mad no money trying to short early this morning at 49, closed trade. I should have been more diligent with YM it has had the most potential for a rally of them all since Tuesday. The up cycle will keep this range bound to bullish at least into FOMC.(is my currant thinking) I was wrong about the timing on a price correction plain and simple.
                                                                                                          Last edited by offshoreman; 10-24-2013, 03:52 PM.
                                                                                                          Say your prayers little one, Don't forget my son To include everyone, I tuck you in Warm within, Keep you free from sin, 'Til the sandman he comes Sleep with one eye open, Gripping your pillow tight, Exit: light, Enter: night, Take my hand, We're off to never never-land

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                          • #54
                                                                                                            Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                                                                                            There seems to be a pattern developing of sinking low during the middle (US trading session) market session and then recovering by the close... dips are being bought. That needs to end for the market to actually correct.
                                                                                                            As long as the Fed is pumping $85B/mo into the investment world through QE, buying the dips should be a successful strategy. And when one considers that the US deficit is shrinking, that $85B/mo has increasing impact on the financial markets.


                                                                                                            Edit: I forgot to add this. If you look at the US equity markets, you'll usually see them climb higher after European markets close and that liquidity moves from Europe to the US markets.
                                                                                                            Last edited by iflyjetzzz; 10-25-2013, 04:47 AM.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                            • #55
                                                                                                              Originally posted by iflyjetzzz View Post
                                                                                                              As long as the Fed is pumping $85B/mo into the investment world through QE, buying the dips should be a successful strategy. And when one considers that the US deficit is shrinking, that $85B/mo has increasing impact on the financial markets.


                                                                                                              Edit: I forgot to add this. If you look at the US equity markets, you'll usually see them climb higher after European markets close and that liquidity moves from Europe to the US markets.
                                                                                                              ...and that will work until it doesnt.
                                                                                                              Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                              • #56
                                                                                                                Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                                                                                                ...and that will work until it doesnt.
                                                                                                                True, very true.

                                                                                                                In truly bad investment form, I'll quote Chuck Prince, "As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance."


                                                                                                                There are SO MANY moving parts to the investment world that it's impossible to encapsulate everything that one watches/monitors/takes their cues from. Statements such as mine, above (Fed's $85B/mo buying), and using that as the only metric monitored can make one (me) look like a fool. But I'm pretty good at making foolish statements.

                                                                                                                ... FWIW, I look at a lot of different metrics but if I were to post everything I look at, all of my posts would be a rambling mess, and plenty of my posts already are rambling messes without talking about many of the different things I look at when I make an investment decision. But I'm into fundamentals and read you, Norseman (I've followed him on a couple of other websites and was lucky enough to be told by LK that Norseman posts here, which is how I ended up here), and others who are skilled technicians.
                                                                                                                Last edited by iflyjetzzz; 10-26-2013, 02:36 AM.

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                • #57
                                                                                                                  ...and we have a new high on the snp, negating the swing high we had in place.
                                                                                                                  This thing is beasty!
                                                                                                                  Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                  • #58
                                                                                                                    YM came within 80 points of fulling its range expectations this week (it has been a serious Laggard), NQ TF flat closes but they met there's or exceeded by many points on NQ. ES came very close, needed 58. Rock on, nothing bearish in those closes.
                                                                                                                    Say your prayers little one, Don't forget my son To include everyone, I tuck you in Warm within, Keep you free from sin, 'Til the sandman he comes Sleep with one eye open, Gripping your pillow tight, Exit: light, Enter: night, Take my hand, We're off to never never-land

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                    • #59
                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                                                                                                      ...and we have a new high on the snp, negating the swing high we had in place.
                                                                                                                      This thing is beasty!

                                                                                                                      Yep. A lot of positive fundamentals; hard for the markets to have a major correction right now.

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                      • #60
                                                                                                                        IFly,
                                                                                                                        Although SPX made new high, but the breadth was not impressive. $NYMO was decreased.
                                                                                                                        Originally posted by iflyjetzzz View Post
                                                                                                                        Yep. A lot of positive fundamentals; hard for the markets to have a major correction right now.

                                                                                                                        Comment

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