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Wednesday,May 15th.

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  • Wednesday,May 15th.

    Es NQ faded a bit overnight as expected.... if we dip today, may see 2821-2824 range and then likely pull up.... vix tlt weekly chart both show signs of exhaustion - meaning mkt could hike all in a sudden into next week.... Gold is UP 4$,OIL is down 0.8%.

  • #2
    Next downside target is 2783 and after that 2759. Resistance above the market remains at 2852.Carl Futia.

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    • #3
      Got a few QQQ181 $ 24 MAY CALLS at the open.

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      • #4
        Futia:

        http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

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        • #5
          Fear & greed:

          https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

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          • #6
            S&P & Dow:

            https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...ndle-patterns/

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            • #7
              Gold:

              https://twitter.com/AdamMancini4/sta...43417729380353

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              • #8
                OK one last post before I take a real break, lol.

                It looks like GCC and DBA have bottomed. I am very cautiously optimistic that these are the going to mark historic lows. While they may have some room to run on the weekly chart, I think this year will be marked by a lot of sideways to down action after intermittent rallies. I base this mostly on the ugly Ichimoku cloud currently overhead on both charts. For GCC, there really isn't a high probability window to break above the top of that cloud until November at the earliest.

                Overall, I expect GCC and DBA to make higher highs and higher lows though. For GCC, it's the $18.60 level that is huge. While it's possible we could put on a large rally to test that level quickly, I think GCC will be stuck under that level for pretty much all of 2019. I could be wrong on that call, but you have to be a pessimist or an extremely cautious optimist in this sector.

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                • #9
                  Adam Mancini‏ @AdamMancini4 57s57 seconds ago

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                  Adam Mancini Retweeted Adam Mancini

                  Big win for $SPX bulls so far and its broken out of the downtrend that its been in all month. 2880-86 is still my first target -this is ~50% fib retrace of this whole selloff and would take partial profits there. If it can clear 2900 its likely this is more than a dead cat bounce

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                  • #10
                    Ok I lied. Another post...

                    $silver’s bollinger bands on the daily chart are the tightest they have been in at least 5 years. This type of low volatility has basically never been good for $silver in the short run. You can almost bet that we are going to get a sharp move lower very very soon. That move will expand the bollinger bands. Whether that move lower turns out to be a headfake lower will only be known in hindsight, but I am guessing it will be a massive headfake.

                    One of the very few times recently where we got a sharp move higher instead of lower out of such tight bands was early June 2018. That upwards move ended up being a very cruel headfake that lasted about a week, and silver subsequently proceeded to plummet $3 over the next 3 months.

                    Ironically, a sharp but brief move lower may turn out to be the only hope for a strong, sustained upwards move. History suggests that a ramp out of such low volatility in silver ends up being a mere pump before an epic dump. Conversely, the largest sustained up moves out of such low volatility come after sharp moves/headfakes lower--silver's drop into December 15, 2015 was preceded by extremely tight bands.

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                    • #11
                      Adam Mancini‏ @AdamMancini4
                      FollowingFollowing @AdamMancini4

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                      May hasn't been a great month for $OIL but there's still a setup here to see another high to $69. 1) The trend from December is still up, and 2) The recent pullback in this uptrend is a bull flag. It needs to break out at 63.45 to trigger and invalidate a deeper correction

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Spanky View Post
                        Ok I lied. Another post...

                        $silver’s bollinger bands on the daily chart are the tightest they have been in at least 5 years. This type of low volatility has basically never been good for $silver in the short run. You can almost bet that we are going to get a sharp move lower very very soon. That move will expand the bollinger bands. Whether that move lower turns out to be a headfake lower will only be known in hindsight, but I am guessing it will be a massive headfake.

                        One of the very few times recently where we got a sharp move higher instead of lower out of such tight bands was early June 2018. That upwards move ended up being a very cruel headfake that lasted about a week, and silver subsequently proceeded to plummet $3 over the next 3 months.

                        Ironically, a sharp but brief move lower may turn out to be the only hope for a strong, sustained upwards move. History suggests that a ramp out of such low volatility in silver ends up being a mere pump before an epic dump. Conversely, the largest sustained up moves out of such low volatility come after sharp moves/headfakes lower--silver's drop into December 15, 2015 was preceded by extremely tight bands.
                        I agree a big move is likely coming but why not higher? Silver often lags Gold in moves higher.
                        "Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." Sir John Templeton

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                        • #13
                          Adam Mancini‏ @AdamMancini4
                          FollowingFollowing @AdamMancini4

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                          The $OIL to Gasoline #RB_F ratio still suggests there's upside left in this crude rally. The ratio has formed a very nice bullish falling wedge since March and if it breaks up it would mean oil outperforming gas, which has usually meant oil heading higher. Gap to fill above

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                          • #14
                            Macro $USD: #USD first posted this version of chart w/ yellow horizontal resistance TL on Feb 11th, it held true. This ascending triangle has officially hit end of the road. A break of purple TL here confirms my cyan consolidation thesis rest of 2019 #DXY $DXY #FX #forex

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Surf City View Post

                              I agree a big move is likely coming but why not higher? Silver often lags Gold in moves higher.
                              I am just talking about the very very short run. On the daily chart going back to the 2015 low, I can't see a sustained up move in silver (i.e., more than 1 week) that wasn't preceded by a headfake lower to expand the BBs once they got this tight.

                              Of course anything is possible, but like I said above, extreme low volatility in silver means a sharp move is coming very soon, and the only bullish moves over the last 4 years in silver when the BBs (20,2) have gotten so tight have been preceded by a short but meaningful drops (like the low in November 2018 and December 2015).

                              Maybe this time is different and silver just ramps up from here without looking back. But it would be the first time in over 5 years that it does that.

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                              • #16
                                I would also add that SLV's candles over the last 3 days are ugly and look like nothing more than a small bear flag. I am guessing the next signficant move will be lower, maybe lasting 3-5 days before reversing. Like I said, maybe this time is different, and a ramp higher from today's level won't end up being a headfake like every other instance in the last 4 years.

                                What I am saying is that it looks like it is basically impossible for silver to mount a sustainable rally without having a kneejerk move lower first (lasting maybe 3-5 days) to shake out as many people as possible.
                                Last edited by Spanky; 05-15-2019, 01:50 PM.

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                                • #17
                                  black candles on SLV:GLD ratio chart over the last few days also strongly suggests silver is about to get a small pummeling.

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                                  • #18


                                    One of my favorite long ideas from the large cap Technology sector. Really like how we well it held up and hung on to its rising 20 day MA as many of its peers went as low as their 50 and 200 day MAs! Strong relative strength in $MSFT

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                                    • #19
                                      Note the extreme small BB width. I am guessing gold sells off $10-20 shortly, and silver proceeds to test the $14.20-14.40 zone. Just a guess, and I sincerely hope I am wrong.
                                      Click image for larger version  Name:	Screenshot_2019-05-15 $SILVER - Silver - Continuous Contract (EOD).png Views:	1 Size:	70.6 KB ID:	392985

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                                      • #20
                                        Gold:

                                        https://twitter.com/AdamMancini4/sta...37743448805381

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                                        • #21
                                          UUP looks bullet proof, for god knows what reason. The entire run since 2018 is surreal.

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                                          • #22
                                            David Larew‏ @ThinkTankCharts
                                            FollowingFollowing @ThinkTankCharts

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                                            XLRE - outperforming the markets. Where Bulls should be. REITs

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                                            • #23
                                              NYMO:

                                              https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

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                                              • #24
                                                NAMO:

                                                https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NAMO

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                                                • #25
                                                  Bitcoin:

                                                  https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/g....html?%24NYXBT

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                                                  • #26
                                                    Gold:

                                                    https://investorplace.com/2019/05/3-...ter&auth=buyer

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                                                    • #27
                                                      $EURUSD Daily: #EURUSD starting to form symmetrical wedge. Stochs have had a lot of trouble breaking out above 70 since Jan. With Upper BB still falling sharply upside resistance is high. 13MA did cross BC bullish, but only slightly, magenta boundaries set #EURO #FX #FOREX $EUR

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                                                      • #28
                                                        Whooooops, forgot the chart

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                                                        • #29
                                                          #Lumber Weekly: $LB yyyuuuppp, one more support test it is... $LBS #construction #housing #realestate #homebuilders

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                                                          • #30


                                                            $WTIC Daily: #WTI MACD curling in bottom at centerline. Stochs also flatlined & starting to curl up. Crude drifted up to close just below 13MA. A close tomorrow above 13MA confirms Plateau bottom is now in & 2nd touch of green TL coming soon. $CL $OIL $WTI #WTIC #OPEC

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                                                            • #31
                                                              $VIX Weekly: #VIX Weekly very rare formation developing... cannot remember the last time a black candle formed on subsequent week with Upper BB still falling. Until that Upper BB reverses, more upside cannot happen. Earliest it can reverse is next week... #volatility $TVIX #TVIX

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                                                              • #32
                                                                $VIX Daily: #VIX dropped below 13MA on closing basis, meaning this is now a possible corrective B-wave. In order for ABC to confirm for more downside to be possible, there must be a hammer doji bounce off 50MA or BC ~15.22 on closing basis to confirm. #volatility $TVIX #TVIX

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                                                                • #33
                                                                  Daily #NASDAQ : $COMPQ today was green so looks like scenario 2 from yesterday’s post playing out. Moved “A” wave target up to reflect that. Keep eye out for any shooting stars between now & Friday’s close. Stochs already hit my green target, but not over yet #NDX #NQ $NDX $NQ

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                                                                  • #34
                                                                    VIX 13MA broke support on closing basis... this is a corrective B-wave now. Keep eye out for any kind of VIX hammer off 50MA (shooting star ressitance backtest of 13MA on equities) for any sort of sign of B-wave top. No guarantee, but if do

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      The Fat Pitch:

                                                                      https://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2019/...llocation.html

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