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Friday,May 10th

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  • Friday,May 10th

    Futures are down 0.50%,gold is UP 2$,oil is flat. Resistance above the market is at 2875 and again at 2900. As long as the ES stays below 2900 it is likely to drop further into the 2630-2710 zone. Next downside targets at 2825 and 2783.Carl Futia


  • #2
    Adam Mancini‏ @AdamMancini4
    FollowingFollowing @AdamMancini4

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    Most are bullish are the dollar $DXY and with good reason given the trend, but $EURUSD may be warning here and looks set for (even more) spike. Since last September its formed a large bull wedge and after two fake break-downs in the risk is that this breaks to the upside next

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    • #3
      Futia:

      http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

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      • #4
        Fear & greed:

        https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

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        • #5
          Oil:

          https://twitter.com/seeitmarket/stat...59193663320064

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          • #6
            https://allstarcharts.com/trend-is-not-friend/ The trend is not our friend.

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            • #7
              More of the same in the metals and miners so far today. The weaker miners continue to get mollywhopped (HL, EXK etc). I gotta believe HL gets a reversal and massive bounce very soon just based on the the multiyear trendline, but right now my technical thesis for HL is in jeopardy.

              I for one hope that Gary Savage's "short squeeze in gold" call pans out, because right now, things ain't looking too hot for the sector. Obviously the swing low from last week will mark the IC low until it doesn't.

              Also notable is the massive underperformance of $HUI compared with GDX--the main difference being that $HUI doesn't include streamers like WPM, which have been relatively strong. As a matter of fact, WPM's weekly chart is one of the best looking charts out there. It is certainly the "safest" from a support standpoint. If the miners were to flip on a dime next week, I doubt WPM will do as well.


              Attached Files

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              • #8
                Silver is beyond frustrating. Palladium is up 4% today. Silver 0.14%. Yes, palladium is coming off a parabolic peak and could have further to go on the downside--I just want silver to do something, up or down. Just get it over with already!

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                • #9
                  SPX:

                  https://twitter.com/AdamMancini4/sta...53707134586880

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                  • #10
                    The $HUI cleared out its Dec 4 black candle. I keep reminding myself that the HUI hasn't left behind a black candle on the daily chart the entire run off of the 2016 low. I thought that maybe this time is different, but nope!

                    There is also a gap just below that candle at the 145 level that I reckon will get filled very soon (maybe today if $gold breaks down).

                    Click image for larger version

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                    • #11
                      I have to be honest, this type of narrow consolidation in $gold almost never ends well, especially coming off a down move. It strongly suggests continuation.

                      Add to that the horror show that has been the miners, and that silver is poised on the edge of a cliff, and the bullish impulse move upwards that Gary is predicting just seems like fantasy. And even if we were to get such a move, I can't imagine that it won't at least start with an initial plunge that gets us close to the swing low at $1267.

                      Nothing to do now but just wait and see.

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                      • #12
                        Well GLD is at least above Gary's proverbial line in the sand (the 100 day EMA), so far.

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                        • #13
                          everything was lined-up for massive gold rally, but no.

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                          • #14
                            This is what a proper cup and handle continuation pattern looks like (this is not good for metal bulls):

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                            • #15

                              Adam Mancini‏ @AdamMancini4


                              $SPX We clipped the 2825-29 support zone I mentioned and are now rallying. Great spot there for a low after an ugly week and its a good "confluence" of support as mentioned in the below post (its also the 78.6% fib retrace of the entire rally from the March 25 low). Needs to hold

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                              • #16
                                NYMEX closes in like 20 minutes. Gold never does anything once NYMEX closes except MAYBE test the high of the day’s range. More often than not it just goes sideways or down. Miners will either close where they are at NYMEX close or lower. Guaranteed.
                                It seems like it has been years since we’ve had a day where gold ramps from beginning of the day until the close of the NYSE.

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                                • #17
                                  Originally posted by rutku10 View Post
                                  everything was lined-up for massive gold rally, but no.
                                  With EUR up ,gold UP, miners have to rally.Let,s wait till next Wednesday,IF NOT a rally,big trouble for miners.

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                                  • #18
                                    David Larew‏ @ThinkTankCharts
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                                    VIX - Bear Market PMO - Reversal candle needs more follow through, to keep Bull alive.

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                                    • #19
                                      David Larew‏ @ThinkTankCharts
                                      FollowingFollowing @ThinkTankCharts

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                                      Oil - 4 days in a row of testing the 50 and 200 DMA - Bottom in??

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                                      • #20
                                        David Larew‏ @ThinkTankCharts
                                        FollowingFollowing @ThinkTankCharts

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                                        Stocks rising vs. declining in the NASDAQ - looks like externals appeared to be worse than internals. Buying was going on.

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                                        • #21
                                          Daily #NASDAQ : $COMPQ Wave 5 is definitely over . My MACD/Stochs called it to a T. 50MA is right at orange TL so possible DCB / VIX lull can happen around that area ... #NDX #NQ $NDX $NQ

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                                          • #22
                                            Short sellers come right back in with impunity at NYMEX close. I hate this sector.

                                            The bigger issue is there is no catalyst whatsoever for gold or commodities to rise. The USD is seemingly bulletproof. And even when it falls, commodities barely rise or manage to stay flat.

                                            The Fed knows that it is screwed if commodities rise or outperform the Dow. I just can't see it happening at this point.

                                            I keep betting against the Fed and getting nowhere. It's like banging your head against a wall expecting something to happen. So frustrating and frankly depressing.

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                                            • #23
                                              #Dow Weekly: $DOW had its wave 5 rally since last post & has now completed. Back to BC support at today’s intraday low. 50MA ~25,198 is last major support, could be a bounce zone but won’t last long. MACD rolling over, Stochs already crossed #Dowjones #economy #bearmarket $DJT

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                                              • #24
                                                #Dow Daily: $DOW not stopping, straight to 200MA. Blue TL failed to hold as support backtest meaning we are in correction mode. Added green target circle on Stochs indicating where next bounce zone will happen most likely (if you are trying to play it). #economy #DowJones $INDU
                                                I actually view this as a right side up H&S with the head just having completed, DCB should complete the right shoulder soon (unless it just implodes of course). Usually there is one last small right shoulder (but not guaranteed)

                                                1 reply0 retweets1 like

                                                Last edited by froll61; 05-10-2019, 12:36 PM.

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                                                • #25
                                                  SPX:

                                                  https://twitter.com/AdamMancini4/sta...01064001888257

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                                                  • #26
                                                    look at this garbage. All of this happened AFTER the Fed announced an end to QT and rate hikes. A new all time low in GCC:$indu. I'll say it once, and I'll say it again, the Fed won't let you win trying to bet against it. The peak GCC:$indu made in December probably won't get taken out for years, if ever! Just watch.

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                                                    Last edited by Spanky; 05-10-2019, 12:56 PM.

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                                                    • #27
                                                      Es recovered 30 pts from low and still deep red but VIX from up 4% to down almost 4%....big $$ clearly having a clue how mkt gonna go

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                                                      • #28
                                                        This is an even more depressing image. WOW is all I can say.


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                                                        • #29
                                                          $QQQ .... 2B reversal working well thus far. With daily charts now printing TWO hammer reversal candles off the rising 50 day MA



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                                                          • #30
                                                            Gold vs the Dow is in the same general situation as the Commodities vs the Dow. I don't think the $gold:$indu peak set in December 2018 gets taken out in our lifetime.

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                                                            • #31


                                                              $VXX sinking hard here

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                                                              • #32
                                                                This says it all. While this ratio could backtest the neckline, have no faith, it will be soundly rejected. I don't think the December '18 peak in this chart gets taken out in our lifetime. While the ratio may take some time to break down to new lows, have no doubts, it absolutely will. And its already overbought in the near term.

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                                                                • #33
                                                                  Like commodities, the HUI is trading below where it was before the Fed ended QT and rate hikes. You can't win. Even if you know exactly what the Fed will do with monetary policy, you will never be allowed to win. Just do the opposite of what you think a rational, logical individual would do.

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                                                                  • #34


                                                                    $VIX Daily: #VIX This is VIX lull I was referring, it finally came Look out for key basing dojis here in the 15-16 level green zone (especially 13MA). If 13MA holds that is the most bearish scenario for equities. 50MA still bad but not as much so. #volatility $TVIX #TVIX

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      There is literally no downside to printing money. The Fed should just mail us each $1 million. They have created REAL wealth for those holding US stocks.

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                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Got a few 186$ 17 may QQQCALLS at 2.30 pm.DCL is in i guess.

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                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Peter Brandt‏Verified account @PeterLBrandt
                                                                          FollowingFollowing @PeterLBrandt

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                                                                          What if? The Apr 1 gap has now been covered. That's what the decline has been all about. $SPY

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                                                                          • #38
                                                                            What happened to Money Flows in Wall Street Journal Site? They're gone......

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                                                                            • #39
                                                                              CoT commercial gold shorts exploded higher this week, despite gold only being $10-15 off the low.

                                                                              At this point, based on action in the miners and CoTs, I would say that my call for the $1267 low in $gold to hold is going to end up comically wrong.

                                                                              I am also taking a break. It absolutely sucks being a contrarian. It has for 11 years now.

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                                                                              • #40

                                                                                More
                                                                                $UBER #DropTheMic

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                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  NYMO:

                                                                                  https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

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                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    NAMO:

                                                                                    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NAMO

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                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      Bitcoin:

                                                                                      https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/g....html?%24NYXBT

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                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        $USDCHF Daily: #USDCHF hit my red arrow perfectly, literally did not touch it MACD crossing bearish, Stochs crossed a week ago. This pair has been the best canary in the coal mine for USD. Very high probability DXY Top is in for now in ST. #FOREX #Swiss #Franc #FX

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