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Monday ,February 11th.

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  • Monday ,February 11th.

    ES NQ weekly chart mid BB not turning flat - a clear warning signal. Mkt either hike to Dec 3 level this week then pull back huge after that into next week, or pull back first to weekly mid BB then hike to Dec 3 level then huge dip. Anyway, remember what I said in Dec.

  • #2

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    $VIX update

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    • #3
      mkt should have dropped significantly last week coz all major tech name earnings over & weekly chart showed exhaustion. yet $es_f $nq_f came back green on a Friday. so, are we going back to Dec 3 level as i mentioned? next week is KEY to set up tone for rest of 2019.

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      • #4
        short gold looks like the place to be! Not only are cycles telling us that, but also the wave structure suggests a drop to at least 1275-1300 and maybe to as low as 1236-1256. Good luck all!
        A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

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        • #5
          Futia:

          http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

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          • #6
            Parets on healthcare:

            https://allstarcharts.com/relative-s...eb9#more-94867

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            • #7
              Fear & greed:

              https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

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              • #8
                Tech:

                https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...-forming-blow/

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                • #9
                  Bob Loukas‏ @BobLoukas
                  FollowingFollowing @BobLoukas

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                  #Gold rejected at the 10-dma could be the confirmation we've looked for. WAY overdue for a larger degree weekly cycle low. $GDX $GDXJ $GLD

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                  • #10
                    ES NQ pulled back to 30min chart 50ma and lower boll. now bouncing. see if we bottom here for the day.

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                    • #11
                      ES NQ both need higher low here. can't see lower low - otherwise even bigger drop this pm. so how to conclude this hour (by 12pm EST) is key for rest of day.


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                      • #12
                        $JPM Daily: #JPM MACD was correct, ran exactly to 200MA & stopped. #JPM starting to send warning signals for #financials sector. 13MA trying to recross 50MA bearish. Rising Lower BB indicating maybe one last possible bounce to allow BB to reverse, but that’s it #Banks #XLF $XLF

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                        • #13
                          #Facebook Daily: $FB obviously popped on earnings but bearish outlook remains unchanged. In fact, it’s about to confirm a sell signal on MACD/Stochs. Gapfill to orange looks imminent as a clear bearish rising wedge is forming... time will tell #FB #Socialmedia #tech $FANGS $FANG

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                          • #14
                            $XLRE Daily: #XLRE finally hit the orange resistance TL. Let’s see how this develops over the next few days. Any kind of shooting star or red candle in the next 2 days could trigger a sell signal. Patience for confirmation ... #RealEstate

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                            • #15
                              #GOOGL Daily: $GOOGL bearish inverted hammer forming. MACD crossing bearish, Stochs magenta support failing never a good sign. If yellow support fails here, Longs GTFO. Wait for of firmaitin signal, next 48 hrs key for FANGS $GOOG #GOOG #tech $FANG $FANGS #FANGS

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                              • #16
                                $MSFT Daily: #MSFT shocking how robust of a resistance that Purple TL has been. MACD crossing bearish. If 50MA & Yellow channel support fails, XLK is in real trouble... a real nail biter here (#Microsoft⁠ ⁠⁠largest component of the $XLK) #Tech #Technology #XLK

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                                • #17
                                  $GDX Daily: $GDX sending major warning signs . Purple TL now back to acting as resistance; looks like a classic false breakout. With DXY breaking out, *IF* MACD crosses bearish & 13MA support fails, this bull move is officially over, next 48hrs key #Gold #Miners $Gold $GC $GC

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                                  • #18
                                    $VIX Daily/Weekly: #VIX forming a base here... nothing more needs to be said #volatility #riskoff



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                                    • #19
                                      $USDCAD Daily: #USDCAD played out perfectly according to plan (view previous, untouched). Now looking like almost identical setup as Feb 2018 ironically enough. With Upper BB reversing u- &MACD/Stochs both crossing bullish, this chart further supports more $$$ strength #FX #FOREX

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                                      • #20
                                        #DXY MACRO: Monthly $USD upper BB now officially reversed. This could be a sign of another magenta touch or even Upper BB touch (now 98.08). 13MA starting to curl up more aggressively, but still looking a lot like cyan consolidation from the past so far though #USD $DXY #Dollar

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                                        • #21
                                          Macro Weekly $USD: #DXY purple channel support DID hold. In doing so bearish scenario most likely off the table as long as last weeks candle was not a headfake. Stochs starting to form another centerline reversal (green). Not confirmed yet, still rangebound #FX #Forex $DXY

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                                          • #22
                                            $USD Daily: #USD Uppwe BB curling up more. MACD/Stochs really starting to rip north and gain momentum. Looking more & more like Last April’s ramp popping hard. Hard to ignore the almost identical MACD/Stochs shapes repeating themselves... (cyan circle) #DXY $DXY #FX #forex

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                                            • #23
                                              $EURUSD Weekly: #EURUSD weekly formed clear support break last week at close. With MACD.Stochs rolling over this time beakers move may actually stick. 1.13 is last key support #FX #FOREX

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                                              • #24
                                                $EURUSD Daily: #EURUSD another red candle but Lower BB still too flat. MACD/Stochs both have crossed bearish but some sort of sharp shock to downside would be needed to drastically alter Lower BB otherwise another dead cat bounce could be underway. #FX #FOREX #Eurozone

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                                                • #25
                                                  #NATGAS Daily: $NATGAS readjusted green TL to February 2018 low (ironically enough). Stochs moved up from 1.16 60 1.49 / 100 but still extremely oversold. If green TL can hold here a bottom may form but it won’t happen immediately, will take choppy few days - week to establish.

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                                                  • #26
                                                    Monthly $GBPUSD : #GBPUSD 13MA holding as resistance. Warned last time to keep eye out for reversal signs here at this key level. Starting to look eerily like mid 2015 & Stochs look a lot like mid 2016. Still early, but lookout for Lower BB curl down #FX #FOREX #BREXIT #GBP $GBP

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                                                    • #27
                                                      Originally posted by pimaCanyon View Post
                                                      short gold looks like the place to be! Not only are cycles telling us that, but also the wave structure suggests a drop to at least 1275-1300 and maybe to as low as 1236-1256. Good luck all!

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #28
                                                        Gold COTs look fine. Silver's not so much.

                                                        Despite doing a complete 180 from last October's hawkishness, Powell has managed to engineer a 4000 pt rally in the Dow, spike the dollar significantly higher and get the commodity complex to roll over (GCC). Honestly, commodities look cooked to me for the rest of the year and are on the verge of breaking down to 50+ year lows. Absolute masterclass by Powell so far.

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                                                        • #29
                                                          Despite the USD making what looks to be the beginning of a moonshot and the commodity complex (GCC) looking like it is rolling over into oblivion, the miners are holding up so far today. In fact, my portfolio, which is overweight silver miners, is actually up today. Makes no sense whatsoever.

                                                          Either the miners sell off soon or they are telegraphing that something wild is about to happen with the metals.

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                                                          • #30
                                                            Originally posted by Spanky View Post
                                                            Despite the USD making what looks to be the beginning of a moonshot and the commodity complex (GCC) looking like it is rolling over into oblivion, the miners are holding up so far today. In fact, my portfolio, which is overweight silver miners, is actually up today. Makes no sense whatsoever.

                                                            Either the miners sell off soon or they are telegraphing that something wild is about to happen with the metals.
                                                            I believe the fear trade is ON. And investors are rushing to precious metals. Cycles will have to be adjusted.

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                                                            • #31
                                                              Originally posted by froll61 View Post
                                                              Bob Loukas‏ @BobLoukas
                                                              FollowingFollowing @BobLoukas

                                                              More
                                                              #Gold rejected at the 10-dma could be the confirmation we've looked for. WAY overdue for a larger degree weekly cycle low. $GDX $GDXJ $GLD

                                                              I can't see gold falling like this. The fundamentals have changed and gold is now the go-to investment.

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                                                              • #32
                                                                Originally posted by froll61 View Post

                                                                Wishful thinking !

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                                                                • #33
                                                                  U.S. securities exchanges will be closed on Monday, February 18, for Presidents Day.

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                                                                  • #34
                                                                    Originally posted by james rangel View Post

                                                                    I can't see gold falling like this. The fundamentals have changed and gold is now the go-to investment.
                                                                    gold should have extremely solid support at the $1270 level (based on the weekly ichimoku cloud). If it were to dip below that level, I don't think it would be for very long. Silver OTOH is anyone's guess. I wouldn't be surprised if it rolled over here and went down to touch the 20 MWA. but who knows.

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/11/li...rket-dries-up/ RE in NYC.getting down,finally.

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                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Rambus Weekend Report.

                                                                        Ask yourself: How many people make big money in the markets? I am not talking about Wall Street titans, the type of people Jack Schwager interviews for his book series, Market Wizards. No, I am talking about average run of the mill smucks like you and I. People who work hard in the trenches trying to pay the bills and support a family. People who need to pull in their belts just to save some money trying to improve their lives. How many of these people score big in the market? I am not talking about small potato bragging rights to boast about around the water cooler in front of your friends, I am talking about serious money. I am not even talking about the 1,000 shares of Apple you bought at the bottom in 2009 for $10/share and sold it later on and bought a Cadillac Escalade and an around the world luxury cruise for your 25th anniversary in which you paid cash for both. No, I am talking about big money… life changing money. How many people reach this level? Profoundly few, that’s how many.

                                                                        Few ever achieve this because they don’t operate within a framework. They don’t see the possibilities that lie in front of them so they don’t have the conviction to take the major position and stick with it. Instead, they invest with the crowd, they seek validation and eventually get shaken out when the market turns against them. Furthermore, they buy what is already overvalued towards the end of a cycle. Ultimately, if they make any money at all it’s really just chump change.”

                                                                        For Rambus Members ( some well researched , interesting long term hold picks here)

                                                                        https://rambus1.com/2019/02/10/weeke...ght-sit-tight/

                                                                        “Now let me ask you this: in the great bull market from 1982-2000 when the S&P 500 went up 16X and the NASDAQ 33X how many investors captured the majority of those moves in that 18 year period? How many were able to establish major positions within a year of the bottom and stay in the investment until a year from either side of the top? That would have required holding on during the initial 20% drawdown in 1984 which lasted 10 months, then not have been shaken out in the crash of 1987. Later, one would have had to sit tight through the 20% bear market leading into the first Gulf war. Scary events of the 1990’s were the Orange County crisis of 1994, the Mexican crisis in 1995 and the LTCM shakeout in 1998. It would require one to recognize a phase III mania and exit to cash within one year of the top. How many people do you think were able to ride the bull and ultimately to grab the brass ring? I don’t know, but I bet they could only be numbered in the hundreds.

                                                                        But here is the thing, I think it’s achievable”

                                                                        “A young man is not likely to be a great investor. Unless he has had an extraordinary amount of mentorship from an early age, he must undergo many false starts and accidents before he has the seasoning to be successful over the long haul. Sure he can strike it rich in Bitcoin, but he will not be able to discern he is in a mania and will likely give most of it back and find himself back at square one having learned a valuable lesson, but at an expensive price. But after having seen many cycles play out, one begins to have a chance at recognizing a market cycle unfolding in front of him. That is where I believe we sit today. We sit at the foothills of a massive shift in the monetary order. If one can align oneself with an asset class which will benefit from the changes which are coming and hold on, you can be one of those rare few who can capture life changing returns.”

                                                                        Plunger Feb 10 2019

                                                                        Editor’s Note : Plunger is Rambus Chartology’s Resident market Historian. He has read every important book on market history and some of them multiple times . He quotes Jesse Livermore .

                                                                        “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. I’ve known many traders who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine. That is, they made no real money out of it. Traders who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.”

                                                                        SIT !

                                                                        GDX:GLD

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                                                                        • #37
                                                                          #NATGAS Weekly: $NATGAS Stochs finally bottoming out & about to cross. Looks like most of the damage is done & now will repair. Added green TL horz support (coinciding with last years Feb Low). 13MA crossing 50MA. Could be a relatively dull spring $UGAZ $DGAZ #UNG $UNG

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                                                                          • #38
                                                                            #NATGAS Daily: $NATGAS green TL held, 13MA inverted hammer rejection suggests choppy slow grind like last Feb-June. MACD divergent higher low, Stochs bottoming. NG trading season is over, no big 2nd pop this year. 50/200MA crossed. Would focus on other asset classes for now...

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                                                                            • #39
                                                                              #SILVER Daily: $SILVER showing more warning signs. BC & MACD Magenta supports have not yet crossed, but when they break that should be the signal more downside is coming. Until they do not yet confirmed bear move to 50MA has started. Couple more days needed #SLV $SLV $SL

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                                                                              • #40
                                                                                $WTIC Daily: #WTI tested Lower BB. MACD/Stochs have both crossed bearish. 13MA being rejected @ 50MA, 13MA crossing BC. However, $52 has held on closing basis as support for 18 days (adjusted purple slightly to reflect that trend), must break 52 to drop $CL $OIL $WTI $OIL #WTIC

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                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  $GBPUSD Weekly: #GBPUSD 13MA / BC failing as support. Still early in the week, but MACD/Stochs starting to roll over, further downside this week could signal Lower BB is next stop #FX #FOREX #Brexit $GBP #GBP

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                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by james rangel View Post

                                                                                    Wishful thinking !
                                                                                    cmon man. Get a grip. How many times has lucy pulled the ball out of the way of Charlie Brown?

                                                                                    So far the Fed remains in total control of all markets IMO. I was beginning to think things might be unraveling on them, but with the USD up strongly 8 days in a row despite them making "the Fed put" all but express policy at the last FOMC meeting, absolutely nothing has changed. whoop de do. Gold is up into the low 1300s. The Fed is playing games with you. This is beginning to remind me a little of 2012-13 after the Fed announced QE3.

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                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      NYMO:

                                                                                      https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

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                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        NAMO:

                                                                                        https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NAMO

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                                                                                        • #45
                                                                                          Bitcoin:

                                                                                          https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/g....html?%24NYXBT

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                                                                                          • #46
                                                                                            Stocks:

                                                                                            https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

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                                                                                            • #47
                                                                                              https://allstarcharts.com/video-market-environment/ Market environment

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