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Weekend Thread - December 29th & 30th

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  • Weekend Thread - December 29th & 30th

    Harmon on the markets:

    http://dragonflycap.com/spy-trends-a...ember-29-2018/

  • #2
    Gratitude:

    https://twitter.com/jfahmy/status/1078784990958284802

    Comment


    • #3
      Steve Burns and 6 others liked
      Sunrise Trader‏ @SunriseTrader
      21h21 hours ago

      No one knows what is next for the markets. Quiet the noise and trade your plan. If in doubt it is best to stay out. Cash is a position.

      Comment


      • #4
        Ciovacco:

        https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short...uch-lower-lows

        Comment


        • #5
          Fear & greed:

          https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

          Comment


          • #6
            The Fed:

            https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...to-raise-rate/

            Comment


            • #7
              SPX:

              https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

              Comment


              • #8
                Walter Murphy‏ @waltergmurphy 13h13 hours ago

                The weekly Coppock Curve still has a bearish bias for all 11 S&P sectors
                Last edited by Jim; 12-29-2018, 09:35 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  LMT978 Retweeted
                  Lawrence Lepard‏ @LawrenceLepard
                  14h14 hours ago

                  Reuters : “Investors are bailing out of mutual funds as if it were 2008. Mutual funds suffered redemptions of $56.2 billion in the wk ended Dec. 19. That’s the biggest outflow since the week ended Oct. 15, 2008, And the numbers over the last several weeks have only gotten worse

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Financial stocks:

                    https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/s...21422747901958

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Macro Weekly $USD: #DXY officially broke 13MA support on closing basis. #USD is now in retreat; 50MA should come in 2 weeks w/ possible intraweek overshoot to downside (does not have to hit Lower BB but it can intraweek). #FX #Forex $DXY

                      Comment


                      • #12


                        #SILVER Daily: $SILVER broke out of all resistance & clipped 200SMA (gold). DXY rolling over on rising wedge formation is finally of waking the metals up after a long slumber. Lot of air up there above yellow up to LT purple resistance ... #SLV $SLV


                        6:41 PM - 28 Dec 2018

                        Comment


                        • #13


                          $USD Daily : #USD wedge breached intraday but recovered into the close. However, Lower BB opening the trap door. 13MA about to bearish cross 50MA, once it does reaction could be violent given COT positioning. #DXY $DXY #FX #forex
                          ​​​​​​https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DviqhO4UUAAkqOf.jpg

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            $EURUSD Daily (Alternate): #EURUSD Chart cleaned & redrawn. When macro markets shift it’s important to be flexible & adapt. 13/50MA smooth curl implies building powerful base (MACD/Stoichs ramp confirming too). DXY weakness = bullish. *IF* 13/50MA crosses, 200MA next. #FX #FOREX

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              $WTIC Weekly: Totally cleaned up #WTI chart & took a fresh look. Realized #Crude #Oil just formed its first weekly bottoming Hammer right at key LT old horizontal support. Next week follow through needed for conf but 13MA backtest looks in play now... #WTIC $OIL $WTI

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                $WTIC Daily: #WTI MACD/Stoichs double dip appears to now be complete. Divergent RSI also showing bullish signs. 42.50 held as bottom, now $45 holding as support on closing basis. As long as MACD divergent bottom holds, BC or 50MA backtesting coming $WTI #Crude $OIL #WTIC #Oil

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  #NATGAS Weekly: $NATGAS broke both BC & orange TL. 50MA held this week but looks like it will fail next week back to 100/200MA as next Support zone. Natty could flush all the way to purple TL support before ramping back up into Jan/Feb mid-high 3s from ~2.9 $UGAZ $DGAZ #UNG $UNG

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    #NATGAS Daily: $NATGAS gap filled as stated. $NG now back to 200MA support. Looks like Natty is chasing magenta TL in the 2.9s before ramping higher into Jan/Feb winter season again. Lower BB in free fall mode, NG could flush hard to magenta from here $UGAZ $DGAZ $UNG

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      $VIX Daily/Weekly: #VIX Reversing Weekly Doji now red too as I alluded to yesterday. Daily bounced off 13MA, needs to break below 13MA on Monday for markets to rally from here. Notice how 13MA resistance on SPX coincides with 13MA support on VIX, keep an eye on it... $VXX #VXX



                                      Comment


                                      • #20


                                        #Biotech Daily: New Chart for $IBB by popular request. Drew this chart over 2 years ago as it marinated deep in my archives. Never looked at it again until this week & all target supports/resistances help up surprisingly well. 200MA/Yellow or 13MA backtest next... #IBB $XBI

                                        Comment


                                        • #21
                                          #Dow Daily: $DOW So far so good... needs to break 13MA Monday to confirm (which it should). Every intraday dip is being bought and it should rip up to a key backtest between Jan 4 - 8. Be patient, the next big opp is coming soon. #Dowjones #economy #bearmarket #markets

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Parets on stocks, bonds, interest rates:

                                            https://allstarcharts.com/much-rates-fall/#more-91885

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              Sunrise Trader‏ @SunriseTrader 2h2 hours ago

                                              Come to the trading table from a place of calm. Trade in a state of grace. Be at peace with the outcome prior to entry.
                                              Last edited by Jim; 12-30-2018, 06:30 PM.

                                              Comment


                                              • #24
                                                https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvouPL4V4AAniPP.jpg
                                                one kind of daily chart is VERY hard to analyze - $nvda e.g., RADIATING FIB (pic 1). channel is ENLARGING so hard to judge the EXACT trend line. BUT if use SIMPLE lines, it's forming FALLING inverted H&S - so it MUST break red line in pic2 AND move to cloud bottom to be valid.

                                                Last edited by froll61; 12-30-2018, 07:30 PM.

                                                Comment


                                                • #25


                                                  15min chart tells STRENGTH of up/down move. $amzn e.g. NOT look at candles BUT 5ma, can see blue line in W shape bottom within C&H pattern. big picture is classic C&H followed by falling wedge b/o then rising wedge break down (black line) so that's when you LOCK all rest gains https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvonbWGV4AEPHny.jpg

                                                  Comment


                                                  • #26


                                                    hourly chart give reliable DIRECTION signal of up/down move. $spx e.g. lower low green OR higher high w/ close >open price of previous red candle (blue circles) tells bottom. lower low red w/ close <close price of previous green candle (black circles) tells top. 5ma also KEY.

                                                    Comment


                                                    • #27


                                                      $dji i gave this DOW 20-yr monthly chart big picture several months ago & updated several times along the way. DOW broke down KEY parabolic trend line BUT pulled back up above it. January may see more bounce but Feb/Mar gonna be CRITICAL. we're in bear mkt until proved otherwise

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #28


                                                        $USDJPY Weekly: #USDJPY 50 MA backtest happened much faster than expected & reversed back down to chase Lower BB to close the week (very bearish development). With that reversal Lower BB is starting to curl down again opening more potential downside. $JPY #JPY #FX #FOREX

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #29
                                                          Plunger : Always poignant provocative and prescient

                                                          “The most important thing an investor must grasp in order to understand this market is the analogy of the drug addict. Yes, the market has become an addict. It is addicted to free or easy money, therefore it behaves just like a drug addict without his drugs. For 30 years now the FED has increasingly administered drugs to the market until now the market has become a hard core abuser of easy money. After the crash of 1987 the FED soothed the market with some high potency marijuana and by the time it got to QE3 in Sept 2012, it was injecting pure heroine straight into the markets veins. When an addict is starved for his hit he rolls around on the floor and screams until he gets his drugs. The market is no different, it needs it’s easy money. Over three decades it has accumulated debt levels and trading strategies which require, in fact DEMAND easy money. If it can’t get its drugs, trust me, the market will let it be known.”

                                                          and practical ( if you are shorting the Dow et al)

                                                          “Market Compression- The current bounce.

                                                          I would like to present a model to view the current rally we are witnessing in this bear market. There are two types of rallies in a bear market: BMR’s and clearing rallies.”

                                                          Comment

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