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Thursday,December 27th.

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  • Thursday,December 27th.

    Futures are down 1.5%.Gold is up 5$,oil is down 1.5%.

    Futures pulled back to daily chart 5ma as expectedright after Monday noon early close, some big $$ bot big positions in $nq_f Mar 2019 6110c. roughly 3.8M call buying. that was pretty phenomenal big $$ movement into futures recently. no matter where bottom is, a strong technical bounce is coming. but do NOT rush for bottom. wait

  • #2
    great rally day yesterday. bulls fueled up and this is not over. as i said weeks ago, likely see strong bounce in January as monthly chart 5ma far far away up there. so no surprise to also see this kind of bounce in Jan. but keep in mind this is bear mkt. don't get over excited.

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    • #3
      Futia:

      http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

      Comment


      • #4
        Fear & greed:

        https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

        Comment


        • #5
          ItzStockChartz Retweeted
          Ralph Acampora CMT‏ @Ralph_Acampora
          20m20 minutes ago

          Market, Part I: Yesterday's rally was historic & indeed impressive; many market indexes, sectors & Individual stocks experienced "engulfing patterns", suggesting a potential near-term reversal low .

          Comment


          • #6
            Chris Ciovacco‏ @CiovaccoCapital 6m6 minutes ago

            In terms of possible follow through after yesterday's big up day, futures were red overnight and first few minutes of trading are weak. Still long way to 4 pm to see what today's candle looks like, but so far not impressive. #Patient

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            • #7


              can consider add more to NVDA calls here, 4 Jan. so now 135c @ 3.42, 140c @ 1.86


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              • #8
                Deric Cadora‏ @traderderic 39m39 minutes ago

                Food for thought: the market gods are shaking out everyone who bought EOD yesterday. Watch this session close higher for confirmation of the hypothesis. $SPY $SPX

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                • #9
                  many ppl were expecting Santa rally but not happen till ystd. so it's nature that you wanna play heavy and "make it up for the missed Santa rally". BUT this is absolutely wrong mindset. there's always another opportunity. there's always another day. regulate ur own play strategy.

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                  • #10
                    Peter Brandt‏Verified account @PeterLBrandt 1h1 hour ago

                    More
                    $DJIA $ES_F $DIA Part of all of the DCB in process.

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                    • #11
                      Charlie Bilello‏Verified account @charliebilello 13m13 minutes ago

                      The Vanguard Total World stock ETF is down 20% from its Jan high. We saw the same decline during 2015-16 correction (-20%) and a 24% decline during the 2011 correction. $VT

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                      • #12
                        Damn miners. I'm venting a bit, but more or less what the situation has been for the last 7 years is just short the miners as a hedge against a long position in just about anything else. Yes, we had a 7 month window where that wasn't true, but otherwise that strategy has worked like a dream.

                        That being said, if you have been extremely selective (e.g., FNV, NEM, ABX, PAAS) you're not quite as bad off now compared to other miners. But the sector as a whole has pretty awful vs just about anything else on earth since 2011.

                        It seems like you have to have the stars and moons perfectly aligned in some sort of once every 1000 event for the miners to actually outperform.
                        Last edited by Spanky; 12-27-2018, 12:16 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Pure misery. I have absolutely no doubt this is building out a massive base, but whether the index bounces along the bottom for a few years more, or makes a beeline back to the recent highs, is a completely open question IMO. An absolutely amazing rally out of 2016 and equally amazing (and brutal) fall. Wow. (I suspect it is primed for at least a suckers' rally back to the 50 dma any day now though.)


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                          Last edited by Spanky; 12-27-2018, 12:25 PM.

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                          • #14
                            S&P 500:

                            https://twitter.com/ritholtz/status/1078291136530337793

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                            • #15
                              Amazing:

                              https://twitter.com/Animal_R_Us/stat...33673780051968

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                              • #16
                                David Rosenberg‏ @EconguyRosie 42m42 minutes ago

                                Only two other times in the past have we ever seen anything like we saw yesterday (in point terms) and both occurred in October 2008. Please don't be sucked into a suckers rally.

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                                • #17
                                  AUY typifies the weaker miners. I don't think it can break above the Ichimoku cloud (will probably get an opportunity in February), which means it is headed sideways to down in the near term. This matches up with my expectation that GDX will head lower over the next 4 weeks.

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                                  • #18
                                    AXU in the same situation as AUY. I hate to say it, but it is probably a very low risk short today.

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                                    • #19
                                      Gary has been calling for a major top in the USD over the last few weeks. If he gets this correct, I will have to give him some major credit.

                                      If USD were to precipitously fall, it's possible that it could muscle commodities and miners right through resistance. I am already 100% positioned in miners (have been for 3 years), but I would probably not be chasing here if I didn't already have a position. Based on what has transpired over the last 2 weeks in my miners, I am extremely doubtful about such a scenario could transpire. But I am never going to say never in this crazy sector.

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                                      • #20
                                        GDX put in a textbook bearish engulfing candle yesterday, at the very top of its range no less.

                                        Ira Epstein has a rule that if price can make a high above the high of the engulfing candle within two trading days, the bearish candle will have been nothing more than a bear trap. That is a tall order right here, but we will see tomorrow I suppose. GDX would have to get above 21.40 tomorrow. I'll be pleasantly shocked if it does.
                                        Last edited by Spanky; 12-27-2018, 01:04 PM.

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                                        • #21
                                          It's fair to say that GDX has put in a major low against $indu. That being said, the ratio is overbought now and could correct back downwards over the next couple of months.

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                                          • #22
                                            Liz Ann Sonders‏Verified account @LizAnnSonders 2h2 hours ago

                                            Yesterday’s surge of 4.96% in S&P was one of 20 best days in post-WWII period; unfortunately, vast majority occurred in bear markets w/ average loss over ensuing year of >15%

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                                            • #23
                                              Here's my guess on AXU's price action over the next month based primarily on the cloud.

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                                              • #24
                                                Fun Chart of the Week: Monthly $VIX #VIX 20YR shows unique perspective. Notices all of the really tall topping tails. Only once did the month end on its high (2011), the rest spikes were mid month then by end of month retreated to Upper BB (or close to it) $SPX #SPX

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                                                • #25
                                                  Originally posted by Spanky View Post
                                                  Gary has been calling for a major top in the USD over the last few weeks. If he gets this correct, I will have to give him some major credit.

                                                  If USD were to precipitously fall, it's possible that it could muscle commodities and miners right through resistance. I am already 100% positioned in miners (have been for 3 years), but I would probably not be chasing here if I didn't already have a position. Based on what has transpired over the last 2 weeks in my miners, I am extremely doubtful about such a scenario could transpire. But I am never going to say never in this crazy sector.
                                                  lil g - 10,000 piece of cake

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                                                  • #26
                                                    The Fed will continue to strip the liquidity out of the markets via reducing their bloated balance sheet and raising interest rates.

                                                    I would not be one bit surprised we see a Black Monday event.

                                                    Comment


                                                    • #27
                                                      Originally posted by james rangel View Post
                                                      The Fed will continue to strip the liquidity out of the markets via reducing their bloated balance sheet and raising interest rates.

                                                      I would not be one bit surprised we see a Black Monday event.
                                                      You could be right. I'm certainly not ruling something like that out. But I am more inclined to think the Dow will rally for a few weeks or maybe more to sucker longs back in. Sentiment is just too damn bearish right now. Conversely, gold is due for a corrective move and silver will probably drift lower along with it.

                                                      Peter Schiff has been dead on so far with his call that the market is calling the Fed's bluff (finally!). He doesn't think the market stops dropping until the Fed cranks up QE or at a minumum cuts rates back to zero or even negative. But Powell seems stubborn as hell.
                                                      Last edited by Spanky; 12-27-2018, 02:29 PM.

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                                                      • #28
                                                        Industrial Profits Fall for First Time in Three Years via @caixin in China. https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-12...&Sfrom=twitter

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                                                        • #29
                                                          I will be very very surprised if yesterday's low in the Dow is taken out in the next 3 weeks.

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                                                          • #30
                                                            Buckle up silver is going to moon!! don't lose your position

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                                                            • #31
                                                              I was thinking that GCC had bottomed, a couple of weeks ago, but I was wrong. At this point, the longer this drop continues, the harder it is to see it breaking above the weekly Ichimoku cloud in an explosive fashion.

                                                              The window for a rocket shot closes on February 11th, IMO. That doesn't mean it won't rally in 2019, but it will likely be a slog (which is probably exactly what the Fed and world CBs want).
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                                                              Last edited by Spanky; 12-27-2018, 02:56 PM.

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                                                              • #32
                                                                Originally posted by rutku10 View Post
                                                                Buckle up silver is going to moon!! don't lose your position
                                                                Too bad the silver miners aren't confirming that at all. I personally think silver is going to drift lower along with gold into late January. That is when a major move should start. I hope I am wrong and it just screams higher from here, but the miners are warning bigtime that won't happen just yet, IMO. At best it gets to the 200 dma, but I doubt even that in the near term.

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                                                                • #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Spanky View Post

                                                                  Too bad the silver miners aren't confirming that at all. I personally think silver is going to drift lower along with gold into late January. That is when a major move should start. I hope I am wrong and it just screams higher from here, but the miners are warning bigtime that won't happen just yet, IMO. At best it gets to the 200 dma, but I doubt even that in the near term.
                                                                  I think we have shallow correction and then explosion. silver miners will catch up at some point.

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                                                                  • #34
                                                                    Henrik Zeberg‏ @HenrikZeberg
                                                                    FollowingFollowing @HenrikZeberg

                                                                    More
                                                                    Replying to @Burke_Esq
                                                                    720-750-area - to unfold in 2019. I think we might see major "Black Swan". And this will be where Fed reverses - and setting Gold on new Bull path

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      The Dow just rallied about 900 pts in the space of an hour. Would be too hilarious to see another 1000 pt day tomorrow. hell, make it 2000 pts.

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                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Originally posted by Spanky View Post
                                                                        The Dow just rallied about 900 pts in the space of an hour. Would be too hilarious to see another 1000 pt day tomorrow. hell, make it 2000 pts.
                                                                        We are very close to 23500 as a strong DOW resistance.IF we break over 200MA we can go a bit more.Short sellers are covering and it is 4 year low.Economy is good first half 2019.MUCH MORE crazy swings than 2008.

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                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Originally posted by froll61 View Post

                                                                          We are very close to 23500 as a strong DOW resistance.IF we break over 200MA we can go a bit more.Short sellers are covering and it is 4 year low.Economy is good first half 2019.MUCH MORE crazy swings than 2008.
                                                                          Wouldn't shock me in the least to see an 800 pt rally tomorrow. 23900 corresponds to the 89 WMA and the lower border of the weekly Ichimoku cloud.

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                                                                          • #38


                                                                            $VIX Daily/Weekly: #VIX Intraday Update: VIX reversing. Weekly Turned red just as I said it would . Expect the actual weekly Doji body to fill red by tomorrow most likely $VXX #VXX


                                                                            https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvdLVfbVYAA-G_d.jpg

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                                                                            • #39


                                                                              #Dow Daily: $DOW Next Leg targets: Will nail between those two targets between Jan 4-Jan 8th. Keep eye inside orange circle for potential reversal ‘Nuff said #Dowjones #economy #bearmarket #markets
                                                                              ​​​​​​https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvdCxz4UcAAO66s.jpg

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                                                                              • #40
                                                                                NYMO:

                                                                                https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

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                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  NAMO:

                                                                                  https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NAMO

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                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    Bitcoin:

                                                                                    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/g....html?%24NYXBT

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                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      A current Bitcoin price:

                                                                                      https://www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin

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                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        Fear & greed:

                                                                                        https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                        • #45
                                                                                          Stocks:

                                                                                          https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...ty-perspetive/

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                                                                                          • #46
                                                                                            SPY:

                                                                                            http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2...moneyflow.html

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                                                                                            • #47
                                                                                              Ciovacco:

                                                                                              https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short...um-flexibility

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                                                                                              • #48
                                                                                                Stocks:

                                                                                                https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

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                                                                                                • #49
                                                                                                  AAII:

                                                                                                  https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/sta...18612078014464

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                                                                                                  • #50
                                                                                                    Volume:

                                                                                                    https://www.mcoscillator.com/learnin...up-volume_day/

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                                                                                                    • #51
                                                                                                      Markets:

                                                                                                      ItzStockChartz Retweeted

                                                                                                      Ralph Acampora CMT‏ @Ralph_Acampora 13h13 hours ago

                                                                                                      Market, Part III: In order to say for sure that we've witnessed the final low, I want to see a successful re-test of yesterday's low on heavy volume. Thus, it is too early to say that the current bear market is over. Be very selective.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                      • #52
                                                                                                        big bullish set-up on $spx $comp $dji after today's intraday reversal (the downside move today was coz of downward moving daily 5ma). see if mkt and stocks can bounce back to daily 10ma & mid BB. no matter what happens, be prepared & have your strategy/plan/contingencies ready.

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                                                                                                        • #53
                                                                                                          Just to clarify - if both pull up big tmr, 5ma will go up significantly so no need to touch those two levels. ES Key levels below 2486 2477 2464 2446 NQ key levels below 6281 6254 6238 6209 6186

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                                                                                                          • #54
                                                                                                            ES NQ futures daily chart 5ma turning flat from downwards BUT far far below current price level. so either we have a big pull back overnight to ES 2446 NQ 6186 or we might see fading tmr. alternatively, if both accelerate to hike way higher above 10ma, then 5ma will be pulled up

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                                                                                                            • #55
                                                                                                              LMT978 Retweeted
                                                                                                              David Ingles‏Verified account @DavidInglesTV
                                                                                                              1h1 hour ago

                                                                                                              Best and worst markets of 2018. Bottom four: Ireland, China, Greece, UAE Top four: Brazil, Tunisia, Qatar, and topping the world — Jamaica

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                              • #56
                                                                                                                CHART OF THE MONTH (Part 6) - #DOW Chart came true exactly 1 month - #DowJones bounced right below 21,994 - $DOW retraced right back to Lower BB Textbook performance. Anyone that says great technical analysis cannot predict the future, politely tell that moron to STFU.

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                                                                                                                • #57


                                                                                                                  $USD Daily : #USD wedge on verge of failure. #DXY could finally send confirmation signal by tomorrow. Yesterday appears to have been one last final bull fake. MACD/Stoichs both curling back downward. Last time MACD crossed centerline, 200MA test came fast $DXY #FX #forex

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                                                                                                                  • #58
                                                                                                                    $EURUSD Weekly: #EURUSD created false alarm yesterday, actually ended up confirming upside bullish break today. If it can hold & add to gains tomorrow & hold the 13MA (just as DXY about to break wedge to downside), #Euro will extend rally (#gold will chase it too) #FX #FOREX

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                                                                                                                    • #59
                                                                                                                      #GOLD Daily (18mo): $GOLD resistance failed to hold & has officially broken back above 2YR TL. EURUSD also breaking out of resistance just as DXY breaking down out of rising wedge. If Both DXY & EUR break respective supports/resistances, #GC rally has more to go #GLD $GLD

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                                                                                                                      • #60
                                                                                                                        $WTIC Daily: #WTI MACD/Stoichs still undergoing double dip. Yesterday’s bounce was supportive of $42 potential bottom, but today’s ugly follow up w/ steeply falling Lower BB is not a healthy sign. $WTI must undo today’s damage tomorrow for more upside. #Crude $OIL #WTIC #Oil

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