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Tuesday, December 5 2018

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  • Tuesday, December 5 2018

    Gold is now only a stone's throw from reaching $1240. This should confirm a new intermediate cycle.

    https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

  • #2
    $es_f back to 2767 $nq_f back to 6980 overnight. Now both falling wedge b/o on 15/30min chart. Remember these key levels. Also keep in mind mkt not open tmr so this week volume not enough.

    Comment


    • #3
      Cash:

      https://allstarcharts.com/cash-is-also-a-position/

      Comment


      • #4
        Futia:

        http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

        Comment


        • #5
          POLY. $USD providing a tail-wind for commodities. Has the dollar topped? Up-trend remains dominant IMO, but short term "potential" topping pattern. All about FED's Dec FOMC now. Also Trump trade rhetoric softened a little, but for how long?

          Comment


          • #6
            The Dow has today and Thursday to break down (market closed tomorrow for GWB) based on the cloud. Otherwise high odds it will be sideways to higher over the next 6+ weeks IMO.

            Click image for larger version

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            • #7
              In the very near term, I personally expect gdx to come back down to back test the 100 dma after the 50 dma crosses above it. Thereafter I think GDX makes a run to tag its 50 WMA and maybe play some games up there (in the $21 area) for a week or so before the IC tops and rolls over. I think it comes back down to test the 100 dma at that point. I think price will tag 18.90 at the next ICL sometime in late January/early February. This is just an educated guess.

              It's hard to say what the silver miners are going to do. They have absolutely been much much weaker since GDX bottomed. It's quite possible they make an undercut low at the next ICL, but that is just a pessimistic guess. The biased bull in me wants to see a V-bottom from these levels, but I am not getting my hopes up. I think GDX from now until the next ICL is a much lower risk play.

              I am confident that GDX has bottomed. I think it will be in a slow grind up for the next 2-3 years (that's how long I think it will take for the 2016 high to be left behind for good), with a parabolic blow off over the following 2-3 years. I think GDX is going to hit $300+ by the end.
              Click image for larger version  Name:	Screenshot_2018-12-04 GDX - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.png Views:	1 Size:	53.6 KB ID:	387790

              Last edited by Spanky; 12-04-2018, 01:02 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                First majestic left behind a black candle yesterday, only a day off its low. That's not an ideal situation. It's possible it could leave it behind forever and never look back but I certainly wouldn't bank on it. If it does continue to run up from here, I think that candle strongly suggests a retest or undercut of the low, perhaps at the next ICL. I would prefer if we just came back down in the next day or two and negated that candle before resuming an uptrend in order to clean up the chart.

                Again, this just suggests to me that GDX is a much safer play between now and the next ICL vs silver miners.

                Click image for larger version

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                • #9
                  WED market close on this week volume. know the risk. AMZN is next in line for big play IF mkt does want to go higher. 1766 1784 1795 1812 all key levels. if it doesn't run, no good for mkt.

                  Last edited by froll61; 12-04-2018, 12:08 PM.

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                  • #10
                    /PA palladium is at ATH,1189$.Break out to the upside,on the way to 1600$.Hope gold will run like this one day,hope in 2-3 years.IF gold 2000$ one day,palladium will be 2,3 X. /PA the best futurs play this year,BUT NOT LIQUID. THE chart is a beauty.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Thursday will tell us if the Dow will be going sideways to up or sideways to down over the next 6+ weeks. If it can close at or over approximately 25520 on Thursday, I think odds are it will be sideways to up into the new year.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by james rangel View Post
                        Gold is now only a stone's throw from reaching $1240. This should confirm a new intermediate cycle.

                        https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
                        Argh !!!!!!!!

                        I posted thinking it was the 4th of Monday. Not bothering to look at a calendar.Is there a way to edit the title?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I see lower lows and lower highs on /NQ chart,so going much lower again.
                          Last edited by froll61; 12-04-2018, 02:00 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by james rangel View Post

                            Argh !!!!!!!!

                            I posted thinking it was the 4th of Monday. Not bothering to look at a calendar.Is there a way to edit the title?
                            Thanks for opening. No way to edit the title. Don't sweat it. The day is half over. :-)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Fascinating to take a step back to view the Forest for the Trees to find that global sovereign bond markets continue to trade as if austerity is actually a politically-feasible option. What just transpired in Paris is just another hint that it is not...

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Peter Schiff thinks the US stock market will go down unless the Fed actually starts cutting interest rates--basically the market will call the Fed's bluff. Of course, he has been dead wrong for the last 10 years, but I have to admit it lines up with the way I thought the end game would play out (of course I thought this would happen in 2016 when the Fed made it's first interest rate rise).

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Massive hemorrhaging on the Russell 2000. Down almost 4%. Not only that, it is forming a bearish engulfing weekly candle.

                                  Gulp !
                                  Last edited by james rangel; 12-04-2018, 03:44 PM.

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                                  • #18
                                    Now down 4.25% with 15 min to go.


                                    Oh my!

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                                    • #19

                                      Wow. I missed that the Bloomberg economic surprise index for housing and real estate data has plunged below its crisis lows

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                                      • #20


                                        AAPL is rect today,-4.5%.May close the gap 167$.NOT good for the whole market.

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                                        • #21
                                          The elevator is still working.

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                                          • #22
                                            Can the Dow rally 500 pts on Thursday? I wouldn't rule it out.

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                                            • #23
                                              TSLA still green into close. amazing enough already.

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                                              • #24
                                                WITH those 3-4% DOWN and UP swings ,looks like a bear market,great for trading (if one at the right side)

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                                                • #25
                                                  Barring a 500 pt rally on Thursday, things aren't looking too good for the Dow into the new year at all.

                                                  If the US stock market and the Fed really are playing a game of chicken, the next few months are going to be very very interesting to say the least. My cynical self is thinking we get a convenient 500+ pt rally on Thursday. If not, the Dow is in for a prolonged bout of weakness IMO.

                                                  Click image for larger version

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                                                  • #26
                                                    Looks like we're testing some lows.

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                                                    • #27
                                                      MrMiyagi‏ @MrMiyagann 40m40 minutes ago

                                                      $NYMO down to +5 area, $TRIN at 2.17, $NYDEC at 2800+ Technically, this sets up for a $SPY $SPX bounce within two sessions (duration/extent undefined). Maybe #Bush's ghost will prop markets. $INDU $DIA $NDX $QQQ $DIA $TRAN $IYT $IWM $RUT $AMZN $AAPL $BA $FXI #G20 #Crude $XLE

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                                                      • #28
                                                        TM‏ @TraderMentality 1h1 hour ago

                                                        Trapped within the Oct lows & Nov highs twilight zone.

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                                                        • #29
                                                          Originally posted by Spanky View Post
                                                          Peter Schiff thinks the US stock market will go down unless the Fed actually starts cutting interest rates--basically the market will call the Fed's bluff. Of course, he has been dead wrong for the last 10 years, but I have to admit it lines up with the way I thought the end game would play out (of course I thought this would happen in 2016 when the Fed made it's first interest rate rise).
                                                          Even if the Fed cuts rates, this market will still go down. Because if the Fed cuts rates, then it is really sick.

                                                          Comment


                                                          • #30
                                                            NYMO:

                                                            https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

                                                            Comment


                                                            • #31
                                                              NAMO:

                                                              https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NAMO

                                                              Comment


                                                              • #32
                                                                Bitcoin:

                                                                https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/g....html?%24NYXBT

                                                                Comment


                                                                • #33
                                                                  A current Bitcoin price:

                                                                  https://www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin

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                                                                  • #34
                                                                    Silver:

                                                                    https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...arish-pattern/

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      Fear & greed:

                                                                      https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

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                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Brandt:

                                                                        https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt

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                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Joseph Fahmy‏ @jfahmy 7h7 hours ago

                                                                          It's a little worrisome when Art Cashin (who I highly respect) says there is no sign of capitulation. What's it going to take for people to get scared? I'm guessing another leg down.

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                                                                          • #38
                                                                            Here is a chart we assembled on oct 9th - its tracking perfectly h/t @HenrikZeberg @OccupyWisdom @sentimentrader @GoldmanSachs

                                                                            Last edited by froll61; 12-04-2018, 10:28 PM.

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                                                                            • #39


                                                                              $es_f $nq_f both seen ugly monthly chart after today's reversal back down. a pull-back to monthly mid BB is highly likely. key levels: ES 2766 2742 2734 2716 2704 2697 2684 2671 2652 NQ 6916 6864 6842 6781 6717 6648
                                                                              Last edited by froll61; 12-05-2018, 01:12 AM.

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                                                                              • #40
                                                                                Energy:

                                                                                https://allstarcharts.com/energy-find-bottom-here/

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                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  Nancy Boots Davison Retweeted
                                                                                  Helene Meisler‏ @hmeisler
                                                                                  8h8 hours ago

                                                                                  Down volume 94%

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    LMT978 Retweeted
                                                                                    Charlie Bilello‏Verified account @charliebilello
                                                                                    6h6 hours ago

                                                                                    The S&P 500's 3% decline today was the 5th 3% move of the year. Last year there were none. In 2008 there were 42. Some perspective on volatility...

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                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      $AAPL monthly update

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                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        *Update 11/12* $ES_F (60m) Inv. H&S Pattern + eSIX, still valid only above Neckline

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