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  • Monday,November the 12th.

    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx Markets are flat to down,oil is UP 1.30%,finally, Gold is down 2.50. $BABA Record Singles day sales. GMV totaled RMB 213.5B, beating last yrís RMB 168.2B - thatís nearly 27% YOY rise. That was, HOWEVER, smaller than the 39% YOY rise in 2017 or 32% YOY rise in 2016. Clearly slowing down. Monday gonna be interesting.

  • #2
    Brandt on industrials:

    https://www.peterlbrandt.com/industrials-softening/

    Comment


    • #3
      Option_Sniper‏ @option_snipper 21m21 minutes ago

      Puts paying huge today. Size your plays. Drop not over yet. Likely bottomed tmr.

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      • #4
        Futia:

        http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

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        • #5
          The Nasdaq looks like it wants to retest the recent lows as does the Russell 2000. The S&P 500 holding up a little better, and the DOW the strongest, but all could get dragged down and retest if the Nasdaq does.
          "Cast but a glance at riches, and they are gone, for they will surely sprout wings and fly off to the sky like an eagle."
          -Proverbs 23:5

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          • #6
            $SPX cumulative breadth peaked with both DeMark Sequential and Combo 13's (when some said breadth was "fine") Now a lower high as expected will be followed by a deeper move lower. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dr0JDNBU8AYpUj2.jpg

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            • #7
              Joseph Fahmy‏ @jfahmy 10m10 minutes ago

              Corrections tend to have 2 or 3 legs down. Worried that this second leg down could be swift. The majority of my "list of stocks holding up well" continues to fall apart. The ugly price action in growth stocks is keeping me defensive

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              • #8

                #Dow Daily: $DOW Verbatim to 2007... Just saying...https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dr0M7YQU4AM2Kdg.jpg

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                • #9
                  $VIX Daily: #VIX weekly 2nd wind I have been talking about for weeks is finally here. Expect VIX to hit 25.55 this week (Upper BB on both weekly / Daily BB) #SP500 $ES #SPX #VXX $VXX




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                  • #10
                    Months ago I said wait until early 2019 to buy the miners and metals, and unfortunately it looks like I will be proven correct. While it's possible GDX hangs on here, it doesn't look too bright right now. What's more, the silver miners are getting absolutely monkeyhammered here. AXU, for example, is down over 10% this morning.
                    GDX has not been this overbought vs AXU since the midst of the bear market. Not really a great sign for the sector. That being said, GDX:AXU popped over the down sloping 200 WMA today. It will suck if the ratio just continues to ramp higher in the weeks ahead.

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                    • #11
                      GDX needs to reverse by Wednesday. If price stays under the 50 dma for 3 days, it's a short IMO.

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                      • #12
                        Quite surprised to see metals down today. Was wrong on last Friday being just a gap-fill. Ouch !

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by james rangel View Post
                          Quite surprised to see metals down today. Was wrong on last Friday being just a gap-fill. Ouch !
                          GDX is still hanging in there. It's just that everything else is falling out of bed. That being said I did mention early on in this rally the presence of some black candles that called into question the sustainability of this rally. If GDX holds on here and doesn't take out its Sept. 11 low, I will be very surprised.

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                          • #14
                            $HUI looks worse than GDX, and could be leading the way lower. If it doesn't reverse hard back to the 50 dma by EOD tomorrow, I would be inclined to take a short position at EOD tomorrow.

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                            • #15
                              #Dowjones Theory: #transports backtested previous blue TL support as resistance & is now backtesting 13MA as support. *IF* 13MA/BC fails here this will chase Lower BB all but confirming Bear Market is near (if not already here). Stoichs rolling too Critical area! #DOW #SPX $DJT

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                              • #16
                                More
                                $TLT Weekly: #TLT bottom is in... 110 was never reached. Expect a 13MA backtest w/ 2nd bottom back at 112. Stoichs/MACD both indicating 112 is the bottom (more strength than expected, more bullish than 110 scenario). Blue TL breakout by Jan #bonds #treasury #usd $USD #DXY

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                                • #17


                                  $SPX Daily: #SPX hole-in-one Tiger style Literally did not touch target circle since first drawn... Bearish backtest complete $ES #markets #economy #stocks

                                  ​​​​​​

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                                  • #18
                                    $SPX Weekly (Bear): New #SPX thread illustrating potential bear market scenario. #SP500 resting on 50MA today. *IF* 50MA fails & chases lower BB, confirmation of bear w/ potential flush to 200MA. MACD looks extremely bearish if cross below centerline. 13/50MA bearish cross soon

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                                    • #19
                                      Joe Kunkle‏ @OptionsHawk 36m36 minutes ago

                                      Growth being sold hard again today with weakest groups Software, Semi's, Biotech

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                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by Spanky View Post
                                        $HUI looks worse than GDX, and could be leading the way lower. If it doesn't reverse hard back to the 50 dma by EOD tomorrow, I would be inclined to take a short position at EOD tomorrow.

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                                        Delayed in buying metals last Friday. Sometimes it pays to be a procrastinator. If GDX does not pull up now, then the E-Wavers are definitely going to have something to cheer about.

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                                        • #21
                                          Bob Loukas‏ @BobLoukas
                                          FollowingFollowing @BobLoukas

                                          More
                                          All good #gold rallies are likely counter-trending now, so time to short rips. I was bullish on this Cycle a few weeks back, and a good example of why STOPS always trump bias/views. Respect the price. $GDX $GLD

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                                          • #22
                                            I think you can kiss GDX bye bye. If it does follow the rest of the complex lower, expect some sort of bounce in around the next FOMC in late December, possibly in early January. If that low doesn't mark the final low, well then, I think the next next low would probably come in the summer of 2019. If that plays out, I expect GDX to at least make a marginal new low below the 2016 low.

                                            Thereafter, GDX will probably bounce in a trading range for a couple of years, before making a triple bottom in 2020/2021, just as the Fed's dot plot tells us interest rates will be topping out.

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                                            • #23
                                              Absolute misery being long the miners for the last 3 years, I must say. A 100% roundtrip back to the 2016 low (and likely at least marginally lower) looks like it will happen, in time over the next 9 months.

                                              The 2016 rally in the PM miners is going to prove to be one of the greatest sucker's rallies in the history of stocks IMO. There was absolutely no basis for the rally whatsoever except to reset sentiment, and it did that like a charm.

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                                              • #24
                                                https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/up...1/iGdKdvz8.png https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/up...bU-800x591.jpg Clear as mud.SILVER.

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                                                • #25
                                                  I personally am not bearish U.S. stocks at all. I still expect an overall upward trajectory over the next few months followed by an eventual retest of the flattening 50 WMA at the next ICL. So a fairly narrow trading range.

                                                  No way the Fed let's this market fall apart. Sideways at worst over the next 3-6 months.

                                                  If you want to short anything, short PMs and PM miners over the same period.

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                                                  • #26




                                                    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-30/eurozone-gdp-hits-4-year-low-i... "only 0.2% in Q3" Yeah, this roaring EU economy is going to get that Euro trading higher right after the election, isn't that correct Jim?? Those European stock markets will really enable them to hike rates and cut off QE, right Jim? The EU is in big trouble, they're going to start losing tax revenue (from declining stock markets) and since they MUST have almost no government deficits, all the countries are going to have to CUT spending which is going to throw all of the EU into recession. This is where the US is also headed, declining asset prices will = less tax revenue= spending cuts for the peasants. The ultimate result will be 0% GDP and 0% interest rates- just like the EU today.

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                                                    • #27
                                                      Oil DOWN

                                                      Check out WTI oil, now down to $61.50 and down -17% in the past 4 weeks. Key support lies around $54, if that breaks watch out.

                                                      Can someone please explain how investors should be afraid of inflation and higher rates when commodities are tanking?

                                                      This is all part of the deflating process, we're going to have low "growth" and low "inflation" to keep interest rates lower from here, there's no other choice.

                                                      Can the stock market deal with this potential economic weakness? Well, lower costs and lower interest rates just might hold the stock market up.

                                                      In other news, the Dow/Gold ratio continues to move HIGHER. I expect this ratio to capture new highs before year end, most likely even this month.

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #28
                                                        Originally posted by Spanky View Post
                                                        I think you can kiss GDX bye bye. If it does follow the rest of the complex lower, expect some sort of bounce in around the next FOMC in late December, possibly in early January. If that low doesn't mark the final low, well then, I think the next next low would probably come in the summer of 2019. If that plays out, I expect GDX to at least make a marginal new low below the 2016 low.

                                                        Thereafter, GDX will probably bounce in a trading range for a couple of years, before making a triple bottom in 2020/2021, just as the Fed's dot plot tells us interest rates will be topping out.
                                                        https://twitter.com/HenrikZeberg/sta...52418609680385

                                                        He has a time frame for the LOW, mid 2019.

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #29
                                                          Interest rates

                                                          Here's something to take into consideration, the Fed started hiking rates in Dec. of 2015. One would THINK that after 8 rate hikes over almost 3 years, that the 30 year bond would be substantially HIGHER in yield, but it's NOT, it's slightly LOWER.

                                                          What does this tell us? It tell us that after all of the stock market going higher, the Trump Booming Economy and the fear of inflation are all false narratives.

                                                          It's very simple, we can NOT live with interest rates higher than today, it's mathematically impossible. They're purposely draining the system of US dollars and deflating the whole global economy. This will result in huge deficits and then ultimately massive spending cuts to the peasants. This will kill demand and bring interest rates where they want it, basically 0% or negative- just like the EU today.

                                                          Bond bears are the big fools here, once they are forced to cover, rates are going to make all-time lows. It doesn't matter how much debt the US and others are forced to issue, the buyers will be plentiful at silly low rates. It's Joe Six-Pack that will pay the economic price in this likely scenario.

                                                          Comment


                                                          • #30
                                                            All that separates many of the silver miners from their 2016 lows is a price range that was blasted through in 2-3 weeks off of the lows back in 2016. It was a massive move up that left a gap on almost every weekly silver miner chart.

                                                            It's possible if this waterfall continues that the silver miners will be testing their 2016 lows within the next few weeks.

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                                                            • #31
                                                              Well, guess the elevator works.

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                                                              • #32
                                                                https://mises.org/wire/next-financial-crisis The next financial crises.GE is a tell.

                                                                Comment


                                                                • #33
                                                                  Originally posted by froll61 View Post
                                                                  Interest rates

                                                                  Here's something to take into consideration, the Fed started hiking rates in Dec. of 2015. One would THINK that after 8 rate hikes over almost 3 years, that the 30 year bond would be substantially HIGHER in yield, but it's NOT, it's slightly LOWER.

                                                                  What does this tell us? It tell us that after all of the stock market going higher, the Trump Booming Economy and the fear of inflation are all false narratives.

                                                                  It's very simple, we can NOT live with interest rates higher than today, it's mathematically impossible. They're purposely draining the system of US dollars and deflating the whole global economy. This will result in huge deficits and then ultimately massive spending cuts to the peasants. This will kill demand and bring interest rates where they want it, basically 0% or negative- just like the EU today.

                                                                  Bond bears are the big fools here, once they are forced to cover, rates are going to make all-time lows. It doesn't matter how much debt the US and others are forced to issue, the buyers will be plentiful at silly low rates. It's Joe Six-Pack that will pay the economic price in this likely scenario.
                                                                  Who TF knows, IMO.

                                                                  If you look at the Dow vs the ten year yield over the last year, they have been pretty much been going up in lockstep.

                                                                  What is stopping the Fed from pulling another 2013 again (another round of QE), with the help of the BoJ (who will announce an even bigger QE, just like in 2013)? Stocks shoot to the moon, while commodities begin another massive leg lower. I don't think anyone cares about interest rates. They are meaningless as long as the US stock market heads to Uranus.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                  • #34




                                                                    https://dailyreckoning.com/the-unite...s-going-broke/

                                                                    Oh, another masterpiece from Rickards here.

                                                                    "For elites, there is really only one way out at this point is, and that's inflation"

                                                                    Seriously Jim, the elite are going to destroy the debt they own by inflating gold to $5000 oz? Not gonna happen. They own the debt and they have the debt slaves paying for it, why in the world would they want to destroy that scenario? It took 40 years to get almost every citizen into a debt slave, they're not going to piss it away.

                                                                    Jim knows this as well, this is pure propaganda and nothing else. Why haven't they done it with fiscal policy yet? Because it's too profitable to keep the status quo.

                                                                    We're going to see more deflation and lower interest rates, we're going to see the velocity of money in the dumps. we're going to see lower commodity prices. And the real fun will start when the peasants are going to experience "spending cuts".

                                                                    There are no inflationary policies either, NO reduction in trade deficits, NO infrastructure spending, NO limits on immigration. Deflation will remain the theme for many years and decades to come, the elite have NO choice.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                    • #35
                                                                      Originally posted by froll61 View Post
                                                                      Oil DOWN

                                                                      Check out WTI oil, now down to $61.50 and down -17% in the past 4 weeks. Key support lies around $54, if that breaks watch out.

                                                                      Can someone please explain how investors should be afraid of inflation and higher rates when commodities are tanking?

                                                                      This is all part of the deflating process, we're going to have low "growth" and low "inflation" to keep interest rates lower from here, there's no other choice.

                                                                      Can the stock market deal with this potential economic weakness? Well, lower costs and lower interest rates just might hold the stock market up.

                                                                      In other news, the Dow/Gold ratio continues to move HIGHER. I expect this ratio to capture new highs before year end, most likely even this month.
                                                                      Yes, it's a massive head-fake to kick the gold bugs off the train once and for all.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Tomorrow should see GDX begin its breakdown in earnest. Absolutely pathetic stuff. Anyone attempting to go long here is catching a falling knife.

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                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Stocks:

                                                                          https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

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                                                                          • #38
                                                                            NYMO:

                                                                            https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

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                                                                            • #39
                                                                              NAMO:

                                                                              https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NAMO

                                                                              Comment


                                                                              • #40
                                                                                Bitcoin:

                                                                                https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/g....html?%24NYXBT

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  A current Bitcoin price:

                                                                                  https://www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    Fear & greed:

                                                                                    https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      SPY:

                                                                                      http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2...moneyflow.html

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                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        The matter of balance...

                                                                                        By any objective measure,

                                                                                        Humanity is grossly out of balance, and the psychopathic personality type appears to be at the very heart of this imbalance.

                                                                                        I do have a basic working concept of cycles,

                                                                                        And maybe the psychopaths are being utilized by the universe to swing things so far in one direction, that when the pendulum swings back in the opposite direction, we might have something worthwhile.

                                                                                        Trying to come up with a process whereby the trend would reverse itself, and start in the other direction seems elusive to me at the moment.

                                                                                        It would be easy to see wrong doer would be easily remedied and balanced in a society, but when you put them in charge of every single fucking hierarchy ever conceived of, and then teach people the importance of hierarchy,

                                                                                        Those that can see the deception, the problem, and the solution, are such a miniscule minority, that the system becomes profoundly unbalanced.

                                                                                        I hate to say it,

                                                                                        But the only thing that I can think of that would swing the pendulum in the other direction, involves a tremendous amount of destruction.



                                                                                        But if I had the option of removing psychopaths from a society, that's exactly what I would do.

                                                                                        So sue me.

                                                                                        Maybe they can simply start playing with a psychopathic free cyclical paradigm.

                                                                                        ó

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                        • #45
                                                                                          The Fat Pitch:

                                                                                          https://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2018/...re-than-6.html

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                          • #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by Spanky View Post
                                                                                            Tomorrow should see GDX begin its breakdown in earnest. Absolutely pathetic stuff. Anyone attempting to go long here is catching a falling knife.
                                                                                            I think we can rebound a bit in GDX,Buying on Weakness 171bln$.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                            • #47
                                                                                              $USD is slowly tracking higher as $ES falls. Thats exactly the confirmation I wanted to see. This is the real deal contagion bear market all of it. Its started. We are going much lower.P.S. I think we still can have the last HURA Christmas rally.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                              • #48
                                                                                                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlItNAk4U-UCathering Austine Fitts. Globalizing Thievery.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                • #49
                                                                                                  Jupiter:

                                                                                                  https://twitter.com/velastrology/sta...61234083438597

                                                                                                  Comment

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