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Friday,November 9th.

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  • Friday,November 9th.

    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx Markets are down 0.50%,oil is down 1%,gold is down 13$.

    Futures lower low and drop big over night. See if $nq_f supported around 7070 and $es_f supported around 2776



  • #2
    Futia:

    http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

    Comment


    • #3
      can consider locked all puts (except for nvda next week puts) to take profits. calls should be out ystd already. no need to take any further risk. just sideline.

      Comment


      • #4
        Needless to say, not looking good at all in the metals complex. Could this be a fakeout before a breakout? I would give it pretty low odds personally.

        There is a real risk this IC rolls over. Silver will be guiding the way here IMO, and it's a hair's breadth from making a lower low already. Absolutely pathetic performance. Show me the money. I'm still hanging out hope that the $hui will be able to recapture it's 50 dma, but it is not looking very good at all.

        I'll repeat what I have been saying--as long as the Fed remains tighter than the ECB and BoJ, there is basically zero reason to speculate in metals. As a mechanism for saving, sure, but for speculation? Hell no. It's been heads I win tails you lose for the metals and miner shorts for 7 years running, save for an 8 month window in 2016.

        The Fed has given you the roadmap to riches since 2008. Just look at their dotplot for when to get long commodities. They are telling you to your face.

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        • #5
          Poly:

          https://twitter.com/BobLoukas?ref_sr...public-blog%2F

          Comment


          • #6
            Looking at GDX in a vacuum, this looks like solid consolidation. I imagine next week longs will be tested further. It will be very critical for GDX to stay within spitting distance of the 50 dma. If price stays below the 50 dma for more than 2-3 days max, it will be a terrible sign. A close below $18 would signal impending doom IMO.

            Another thing to look out for is the 10 dma crossing below the 50 dma. If it does cross below, it's not the end of the word so long as it doesn't put any distance between itself and the 50 dma.

            Even if this all plays out in favor of the bulls in the short run, it's still possible we could get a day with a huge gap down next week and then a big reversal into the close. So it may not be easy. If I was a gambler looking to get long based purely on technicals, I would go long the first day the 5 day RSI turns up and closes above 30.

            Also, the silver miners have been getting raped for the last 4-5 months. I would expect this to continue at least into next week. I think GDX is a much much safer way to speculate in the near term. It's possible GDX continues to inch higher as the silver miners continue to underperform massively. I think this could continue into late December possible. Most of the silver miners are literally falling knives currently.

            Click image for larger version  Name:	Screenshot_2018-11-09 GDX - VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.png Views:	1 Size:	59.0 KB ID:	387114
            Last edited by Spanky; 11-09-2018, 12:44 PM.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Spanky View Post
              Needless to say, not looking good at all in the metals complex. Could this be a fakeout before a breakout? I would give it pretty low odds personally.

              There is a real risk this IC rolls over. Silver will be guiding the way here IMO, and it's a hair's breadth from making a lower low already. Absolutely pathetic performance. Show me the money. I'm still hanging out hope that the $hui will be able to recapture it's 50 dma, but it is not looking very good at all.

              I'll repeat what I have been saying--as long as the Fed remains tighter than the ECB and BoJ, there is basically zero reason to speculate in metals. As a mechanism for saving, sure, but for speculation? Hell no. It's been heads I win tails you lose for the metals and miner shorts for 7 years running, save for an 8 month window in 2016.

              The Fed has given you the roadmap to riches since 2008. Just look at their dotplot for when to get long commodities. They are telling you to your face.
              Buy with both hands. The GDX gap has been filled.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by james rangel View Post

                Buy with both hands. The GDX gap has been filled.
                It could be. GDX certainly looks the least risky of anything PM related. The silver miners are probably headed lower, at least next week.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Brandt:

                  https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    IF - and this is a BIG if - any bad news coming out of this weekend, $nq_f dive to 6850 or even 6734 next week, $es_f back to 2755 2734 or even 2684

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