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  • Friday The 13th

    Triskaidekaphobics beware!!!
    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
    Also.. I'm not the real Mr Miyagi; he's been dead since 2005.

  • #2
    NYMO:

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

    Comment


    • #3
      EEM, COMPQ:

      https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

      Comment


      • #4
        Fear & greed:

        https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

        Comment


        • #5
          Yen, commodities:

          https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...ties-breaking/

          Comment


          • #6
            SSEC:

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...35&a=421836540

            Comment


            • #7
              Markets:

              https://www.mcoscillator.com/learnin...bond_a-d_line/

              Comment


              • #8
                Northy on the NDX:

                https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...06119399374850

                Comment


                • #9
                  Oscar:

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=fBMVP5xpHko

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Looks like gold is screwed. Yearly cycle has failed, so gold has 5 or 6 more months to make new lows. That's not to say it can't go up first. If last night's low turns out to be an ICL, then we should have a rally lasting few days at least. But if the May low was the last ICL, then gold could just continue lower without much of a breather.
                    A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Futia:

                      http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Joseph Fahmy‏ @jfahmy 2h2 hours ago

                        Every quarter, several analysts come out with cautious comments ahead of Apple's earnings, only to be proven wrong. Now, they are doing the same with Netflix.

                        Comment


                        • #13

                          Ryan Detrick, CMT‏ @RyanDetrick 3h3 hours ago

                          Yesterday, the NYSE A/D line closed at new all-time highs. We continue to hear how only a few stocks are leading the market higher, it simply isn't true. This bodes quite well for continued equity strength the second half of 2018.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Unless gold puts it in gear and rallies the rest of the day, Sunday night could be the big slam down. Don't we have a history of strong selling events occurring on very thin volume on Sunday evenings?
                            A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Parets on Nasdaq:

                              http://allstarcharts.com/nasdaq-100-stocks-breaking/

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Originally posted by pimaCanyon View Post
                                Unless gold puts it in gear and rallies the rest of the day, Sunday night could be the big slam down. Don't we have a history of strong selling events occurring on very thin volume on Sunday evenings?
                                USD looks like it is going to explode to the upside on the weekly chart, courtesy of a collapsing yen.

                                The real bear in me looks back at the 2016 commodity rally as nothing more than bearish consolidation after probably the biggest 2 year decline in the commodity complex in history. I mean between 2013 and 2015 they absolutely did a number on GCC--one for the ages. After such a massive and rapid drop, its just normal that you get at least some sideways consolidation to allow those long term MAs to catch down to price. You could chalk up the price action from 2016 to present as nothing more than a bearish continuation pattern.

                                As long as the banks survive and the stock market is at all time highs, the CBs love this. Do you think they give a crap if some small mining operation or oil well goes under? Hell, it just means the bank takes possession for peanuts of a productive asset. Plus, lower commodities means lower input costs which means increased profits for first world companies. And the masses are happy because fuel and food is affordable.
                                Last edited by Spanky; 07-13-2018, 12:09 PM.

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Originally posted by pimaCanyon View Post
                                  Unless gold puts it in gear and rallies the rest of the day, Sunday night could be the big slam down. Don't we have a history of strong selling events occurring on very thin volume on Sunday evenings?
                                  There is absolutely no catalyst for a rise--none. In fact, there wasn't a catalyst back in 2016 either. That was just a suckers rally in an ongoing commodity bear market, because nothing goes to zero in a straight line.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    The stock market will continue to be the liquidity sponge. The Fed has successfully created the greatest moral hazard in the history of the world. The more EM currencies tank, the more attractive US assets become. It's a virtuous circle now. The CBs can totally manage inflation due to coordinated interest rate and QE policy. As long as the US is relatively tighter than the rest of the world, money will continue pouring into the US. And they can modulate the amplitude of the stock market by adjusting the yield spreads between US and foreign bonds via these policies. Not only that, if the stock market were to actually drop, the CBs just go into the futures market and buy or they can take the more overhanded approach and adjust their monetary policies to modulate the currency flows.

                                    The price action in commodities between 2016 and now is absolute nirvana for CB. They have pulled off a masterclass.

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      Originally posted by Jim View Post
                                      Ryan Detrick, CMT‏ @RyanDetrick 3h3 hours ago

                                      Yesterday, the NYSE A/D line closed at new all-time highs. We continue to hear how only a few stocks are leading the market higher, it simply isn't true. This bodes quite well for continued equity strength the second half of 2018.
                                      It's absolute Nirvana for US markets. Bulletproof. Zero risk on any time horizon longer than 3 months.

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by Spanky View Post

                                        USD looks like it is going to explode to the upside on the weekly chart, courtesy of a collapsing yen.

                                        The real bear in me looks back at the 2016 commodity rally as nothing more than bearish consolidation after probably the biggest 2 year decline in the commodity complex in history. I mean between 2013 and 2015 they absolutely did a number on GCC--one for the ages. After such a massive and rapid drop, its just normal that you get at least some sideways consolidation to allow those long term MAs to catch down to price. You could chalk up the price action from 2016 to present as nothing more than a bearish continuation pattern.

                                        As long as the banks survive and the stock market is at all time highs, the CBs love this. Do you think they give a crap if some small mining operation or oil well goes under? Hell, it just means the bank takes possession for peanuts of a productive asset. Plus, lower commodities means lower input costs which means increased profits for first world companies. And the masses are happy because fuel and food is affordable.
                                        Oscar pointed out a H&S on the EUR/USD daily chart. But it's not fully formed, much less confirmed, so we'll have to wait and see. Neckline is around 1.15. If the Euro does head south in a big way, that along with what's been happening with USD/JPY will send the dollar much higher and very likely the metals and other commodities much lower as you've been saying.
                                        A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                                        Comment


                                        • #21
                                          Originally posted by pimaCanyon View Post

                                          Oscar pointed out a H&S on the EUR/USD daily chart. But it's not fully formed, much less confirmed, so we'll have to wait and see. Neckline is around 1.15. If the Euro does head south in a big way, that along with what's been happening with USD/JPY will send the dollar much higher and very likely the metals and other commodities much lower as you've been saying.
                                          Cot's very bullish right now for gold. Commercials are back to ICL levels. We're currently in week 30 so the end is very near. Even if this coming IC was extremely left translated we should get at least get 4 or 5 strong up weeks.

                                          Also what makes you think this is YCL. Very well could be... I know Gary is calling it that but when I look at the weekly's I just don't see it. Looks like its been occurring in December for a number of years now. I could be missing something though?
                                          Last edited by R41; 07-13-2018, 01:13 PM.

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Originally posted by R41 View Post

                                            Also what makes you think this is YCL. Very well could be... I know Gary is calling it that but when I look at the weekly's I just don't see it. Looks like its been occurring in December for a number of years now. I could be missing something though?
                                            Didn't say it was a yearly cycle low. What I said was that we now have a failed yearly cycle in play (because gold traded below the last yearly cycle low that was put in last December).

                                            Usually when you get a failed cycle this early, you go on to much lower lows. And, you're right, the next yearly cycle low is not due till December, so that gives us 5 months for gold to continue lower into that YCL.

                                            I don't subscribe to Gary, so I'm surprised to hear he's calling a YCL now? I don't see that on the charts at all. Last YCL was last December. I don't know how you could get any other reading on the yearly cycle than that. So if last December was the last YCL, then we're not due for a YCL for another 5 months.

                                            What is Gary's reasoning that the YCL would be coming in this early?
                                            Last edited by pimaCanyon; 07-13-2018, 01:34 PM.
                                            A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              Originally posted by pimaCanyon View Post
                                              Looks like gold is screwed. Yearly cycle has failed, so gold has 5 or 6 more months to make new lows. That's not to say it can't go up first. If last night's low turns out to be an ICL, then we should have a rally lasting few days at least. But if the May low was the last ICL, then gold could just continue lower without much of a breather.
                                              I believe it's the close that counts not the intraday low?

                                              Comment


                                              • #24
                                                Originally posted by james rangel View Post

                                                I believe it's the close that counts not the intraday low?
                                                Don't know about that. I've always thought it was the low for cycle lows and the high for cycle highs.
                                                A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                                                Comment


                                                • #25
                                                  I don't know his reason for calling this a YCL...Investing.com and PMbull.com both show this low still fractionally above the December YCL. Not saying there right of course...just sayin'.

                                                  Comment


                                                  • #26
                                                    Originally posted by R41 View Post
                                                    I don't know his reason for calling this a YCL...Investing.com and PMbull.com both show this low still fractionally above the December YCL. Not saying there right of course...just sayin'.
                                                    Because their charts are not showing bars, but instead just line graphs, I suspect investing.com is using the close price.

                                                    PMbull.com is showing the spot price. The spot low December was 1236.53. Today's low was 1236.58. Today's low as 5 cents higher than last December's low, so using the spot price we do not (yet) have a failed yearly cycle.
                                                    Last edited by pimaCanyon; 07-13-2018, 04:29 PM.
                                                    A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                                                    Comment


                                                    • #27
                                                      Originally posted by R41 View Post

                                                      Cot's very bullish right now for gold. Commercials are back to ICL levels. We're currently in week 30 so the end is very near. Even if this coming IC was extremely left translated we should get at least get 4 or 5 strong up weeks.

                                                      Also what makes you think this is YCL. Very well could be... I know Gary is calling it that but when I look at the weekly's I just don't see it. Looks like its been occurring in December for a number of years now. I could be missing something though?
                                                      They're not though. Commercials actually increased their net shorts this week. And the real tell is silver. Nowhere near to levels where you can say with certainty the end of the decline is near. I think both gold and silver will get murdered early next week.

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #28
                                                        This is is the most bearish I have ever seen Spanky......for what it’s worth, I went long slv mar 2019 calls today

                                                        Originally posted by Spanky View Post

                                                        They're not though. Commercials actually increased their net shorts this week. And the real tell is silver. Nowhere near to levels where you can say with certainty the end of the decline is near. I think both gold and silver will get murdered early next week.

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #29
                                                          For you gold bulls, hang in there !

                                                          https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...rse-2018-06-28

                                                          Comment

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