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Wednesday July 11th

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  • Wednesday July 11th

    NYMO finally got a hand from Trump and his $200B tariff plan. Next up; China retaliates.
    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
    Also.. I'm not the real Mr Miyagi; he's been dead since 2005.

  • #2
    Ah, correction!

    We still are in a lunar green period. The next lunar red period starts around Saturday, July 14th, this weekend!

    Comment


    • #3
      Fear & greed:

      https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

      Comment


      • #4
        NYMO:

        http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

        Comment


        • #5
          Stocks:

          https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

          Comment


          • #6
            USD & Euro:

            https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...ecious-metals/

            Comment


            • #7
              Interest rates:

              https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...past-25-years/

              Comment


              • #8
                Poly:

                https://bitcoin.live/blog/rule-1-tra...-trend?aid=102

                Comment


                • #9
                  SPY:

                  http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2...moneyflow.html

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    SSEC:

                    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...35&a=421836540

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Quite a decent large number... fun times ahead. Closed some shorts at 2766 and 7233

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Futia:

                        http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Sophia View Post

                          Quite a decent large number... fun times ahead. Closed some shorts at 2766 and 7233
                          Yes, fun times of some kind ahead.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            But again, the markets are only moving overnight, when US traders are asleep.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sophia View Post
                              But again, the markets are only moving overnight, when US traders are asleep.
                              some of the recent strong rallies have occurred during regular trading hours, haven't they?
                              A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Copper:

                                https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...eakness-ahead/

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  New 52 week low for GCC (unweighted commodity complex). Look at that raging inflation. I’m sure the Fed is panicking.

                                  $indu:GCC ratio about to break out to new multiyear highs. Dow is up almost 500% vs commodities since 2012 with no end in sight. The top callers look like absolute idiots. They'll be right sometime in the next 100 years IMO.

                                  Commodities haven't gone anywhere in 40+ years. when you adjust for base money, or even CPI, we are probably looking at the cheapest commodities in human history easily.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    gold has gone from looking promising to looking ugly. I'm starting to wonder whether the recent low was the DCL/ICL or whether it's still ahead of us. Or worse, are we just counting the cycles incorrectly and we now have another week or two or three before a significant low?
                                    A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      In looking at the weekly chart of gold, a possibility for an ICL is the week of May 21 which would have made the previous cycle 23 weeks long, which puts it in the normal timing band. If we break the recent low of last week and continue lower, that will start to look more likely. If the week of May 21 was the last ICL, then we are only on week 7 of the new cycle, a failed cycle which could continue to head lower for another 10 or 15 weeks. :-\
                                      A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by pimaCanyon View Post
                                        gold has gone from looking promising to looking ugly. I'm starting to wonder whether the recent low was the DCL/ICL or whether it's still ahead of us. Or worse, are we just counting the cycles incorrectly and we now have another week or two or three before a significant low?
                                        As long as the Fed is tightening relative to the rest of the world, gold and commodities are a long term short. No way the CBs allow commodities to rise. The only thing that can stop complete CB managed markets is if Japan, the EU or the US undergo a massive political and economic collapse and violent revolution.

                                        As I keep saying, just liquidate everything you own and buy a 1% position in AMZN on every red day until you have a full position, and then sit back and get rich off of fascism.

                                        Comment


                                        • #21
                                          Originally posted by pimaCanyon View Post
                                          In looking at the weekly chart of gold, a possibility for an ICL is the week of May 21 which would have made the previous cycle 23 weeks long, which puts it in the normal timing band. If we break the recent low of last week and continue lower, that will start to look more likely. If the week of May 21 was the last ICL, then we are only on week 7 of the new cycle, a failed cycle which could continue to head lower for another 10 or 15 weeks. :-\
                                          Really, the million dollar question!!! Extended ICL ou possibility of an early failed ICL!!

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Parets on XLK:

                                            https://twitter.com/allstarcharts/st...76302139883520

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              One final comment re gold: The yearly cycle. I'm counting the last yearly cycle low the week of December 11, 2017 when gold made a low of 1238.30. That's the magic number to watch in my opinion. Last week gold made a low of 1238.80, coming within less than a dollar of breaking that low. If gold does break that low, that would be very bearish because we would have a failed yearly cycle in play and another 6 months for gold to continue making lower lows during the current yearly cycle.
                                              A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                                              Comment


                                              • #24
                                                Originally posted by Neo View Post

                                                Really, the million dollar question!!! Extended ICL ou possibility of an early failed ICL!!
                                                Silver is toast. I wouldn't touch it until the commercial net short position comes back to earth. That should occur in the low $15s or mid to high $14s IMO.

                                                The unweighted commodity complex is breaking down. Gold and silver are wildly WILDLY overvalued relatively speaking in historical terms.

                                                Even if gold and silver are basing out for a new secular bull market, there could be a lot of short term pain inflicted before it bottoms for good.

                                                Comment


                                                • #25
                                                  Originally posted by pimaCanyon View Post
                                                  One final comment re gold: The yearly cycle. I'm counting the last yearly cycle low the week of December 11, 2017 when gold made a low of 1238.30. That's the magic number to watch in my opinion. Last week gold made a low of 1238.80, coming within less than a dollar of breaking that low. If gold does break that low, that would be very bearish because we would have a failed yearly cycle in play and another 6 months for gold to continue making lower lows during the current yearly cycle.
                                                  Based on everything I see, I think that is virtually guaranteed to happen. Silver and miners are the tell. I think GDX is going to spend 8-12 months making a "V" under the 200 WMA. God only knows how low it could go, but a break of the 2016 low is not out of the question at all IMO. Again, this could all be part of normal basing action to set up a real secular trend, but the odds of the miners just ramping up to new highs from this level is virtually zero IMO.
                                                  Last edited by Spanky; 07-11-2018, 11:01 AM.

                                                  Comment


                                                  • #26
                                                    A years worth of progress in the commodity complex has been wiped out in 7 weeks. Yes, GCC is oversold now on the weekly chart, but based on the severity and steepness of the selloff there is virtually guaranteed to be follow through lower for the next 3-6 months. Another broken chart.

                                                    $XJY (yen) is the real doozy though. That POS is poised for a major long term plunge. There is absolutely nothing constructive about this. Frankly it is outright scary. And the implication for commodities in the short and long term is dire.

                                                    Click image for larger version

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                                                    • #27
                                                      Look at the drop between July '14 and July '15 on the $XJY chart above. Something like that is quite possible now. GDX got cut in half on that plunge in yen.

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                                                      • #28
                                                        Honestly, the selloff in the US stock market today is nothing but a buying opportunity. Just like every other time.

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #29
                                                          Gary has traded the miners incredibly well over the last 2 years. He has pretty much nailed every single significant turn. I know he is just expecting an undercut low at this point, but the reality is he is entirely out of his position now, so he has the luxury of waiting to see what this breakdown is going to look like. I have a sneaking suspicion that this is going to turn out to be far far worse than a mere undercut, unless an undercut low entails a 50% drop.

                                                          Comment


                                                          • #30
                                                            If/when gold breaks below the 200 WMA, the selloff could turn into an all out crash a la 2013.

                                                            Comment


                                                            • #31
                                                              $gold:

                                                              http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24GOLD

                                                              Comment


                                                              • #32
                                                                Brandt:

                                                                https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt

                                                                Comment

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