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Wednesday July 11th
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Originally posted by Jim View Post
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Originally posted by Sophia View PostBut again, the markets are only moving overnight, when US traders are asleep.“A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein
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New 52 week low for GCC (unweighted commodity complex). Look at that raging inflation. I’m sure the Fed is panicking.
$indu:GCC ratio about to break out to new multiyear highs. Dow is up almost 500% vs commodities since 2012 with no end in sight. The top callers look like absolute idiots. They'll be right sometime in the next 100 years IMO.
Commodities haven't gone anywhere in 40+ years. when you adjust for base money, or even CPI, we are probably looking at the cheapest commodities in human history easily.
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gold has gone from looking promising to looking ugly. I'm starting to wonder whether the recent low was the DCL/ICL or whether it's still ahead of us. Or worse, are we just counting the cycles incorrectly and we now have another week or two or three before a significant low?“A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein
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In looking at the weekly chart of gold, a possibility for an ICL is the week of May 21 which would have made the previous cycle 23 weeks long, which puts it in the normal timing band. If we break the recent low of last week and continue lower, that will start to look more likely. If the week of May 21 was the last ICL, then we are only on week 7 of the new cycle, a failed cycle which could continue to head lower for another 10 or 15 weeks. :-\“A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein
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Originally posted by pimaCanyon View Postgold has gone from looking promising to looking ugly. I'm starting to wonder whether the recent low was the DCL/ICL or whether it's still ahead of us. Or worse, are we just counting the cycles incorrectly and we now have another week or two or three before a significant low?
As I keep saying, just liquidate everything you own and buy a 1% position in AMZN on every red day until you have a full position, and then sit back and get rich off of fascism.
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Originally posted by pimaCanyon View PostIn looking at the weekly chart of gold, a possibility for an ICL is the week of May 21 which would have made the previous cycle 23 weeks long, which puts it in the normal timing band. If we break the recent low of last week and continue lower, that will start to look more likely. If the week of May 21 was the last ICL, then we are only on week 7 of the new cycle, a failed cycle which could continue to head lower for another 10 or 15 weeks. :-\
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One final comment re gold: The yearly cycle. I'm counting the last yearly cycle low the week of December 11, 2017 when gold made a low of 1238.30. That's the magic number to watch in my opinion. Last week gold made a low of 1238.80, coming within less than a dollar of breaking that low. If gold does break that low, that would be very bearish because we would have a failed yearly cycle in play and another 6 months for gold to continue making lower lows during the current yearly cycle.“A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein
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Originally posted by Neo View Post
Really, the million dollar question!!! Extended ICL ou possibility of an early failed ICL!!
The unweighted commodity complex is breaking down. Gold and silver are wildly WILDLY overvalued relatively speaking in historical terms.
Even if gold and silver are basing out for a new secular bull market, there could be a lot of short term pain inflicted before it bottoms for good.
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Originally posted by pimaCanyon View PostOne final comment re gold: The yearly cycle. I'm counting the last yearly cycle low the week of December 11, 2017 when gold made a low of 1238.30. That's the magic number to watch in my opinion. Last week gold made a low of 1238.80, coming within less than a dollar of breaking that low. If gold does break that low, that would be very bearish because we would have a failed yearly cycle in play and another 6 months for gold to continue making lower lows during the current yearly cycle.Last edited by Spanky; 07-11-2018, 11:01 AM.
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A years worth of progress in the commodity complex has been wiped out in 7 weeks. Yes, GCC is oversold now on the weekly chart, but based on the severity and steepness of the selloff there is virtually guaranteed to be follow through lower for the next 3-6 months. Another broken chart.
$XJY (yen) is the real doozy though. That POS is poised for a major long term plunge. There is absolutely nothing constructive about this. Frankly it is outright scary. And the implication for commodities in the short and long term is dire.
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Gary has traded the miners incredibly well over the last 2 years. He has pretty much nailed every single significant turn. I know he is just expecting an undercut low at this point, but the reality is he is entirely out of his position now, so he has the luxury of waiting to see what this breakdown is going to look like. I have a sneaking suspicion that this is going to turn out to be far far worse than a mere undercut, unless an undercut low entails a 50% drop.
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