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Friday June 29th

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  • Friday June 29th

    Curious to see how this Friday follows rebound Thursday, and ahead of July 4th holiday mid-next week.
    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
    Also.. I'm not the real Mr Miyagi; he's been dead since 2005.

  • #2
    NYMO:

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

    Comment


    • #3
      Fear & greed:

      http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

      Comment


      • #4
        SPY:

        http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2...moneyflow.html

        Comment


        • #5
          Brandt on Bitcoin:

          https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/sta...75172383744000

          Comment


          • #6
            Lunar green period should be starting today.

            Comment


            • #7
              today, with quarter end and month end, this market could go either ways... 2680 or 2755?

              Comment


              • #8
                Futia:

                http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

                Comment


                • #9
                  NYMO close to zero

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Sophia View Post
                    NYMO close to zero
                    "W" complete from earlier this week.


                    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
                    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
                    Also.. I'm not the real Mr Miyagi; he's been dead since 2005.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      There is almost 0 chance $hui put in a long term (as in multiyear) low yesterday IMO. Yesterday it put in a black candle on the daily chart. It hasnít left behind a black candle on the daily chart in probably 20 years. It certainly hasnít left any behind since the January 2016 low was struck. Could this time be different? Sure I guess, but it would be an absolutely extreme outlier IMO (like 1 in 1,000). We could of course rally significantly before it heads back down, so I am not trying to say you couldnít make significant money trading it, but if you are looking for a long term buy and hold right here, you need to be prepared for at least a minor drawdown in the near future. FWIW.

                      I am still long my silver miners, but I am actually expecting them to do pretty much nothing for the next year or two--I base that outlook almost 100% on technicals, so I am "hoping" (there is that red flag word again) I am wrong about short term and longer term direction of the miners.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        The $XAUís weekly BB width (20,2) has basically matched the low it achieved only one other time in its 30 year history (back in 1995). Back then it proceeded to produce a very large 6 month rally of about 50% (from a level of 100 up to 150 at the peak) before it rolled over into the epic bear between 1996 to 2000. It went from the peak of 150 to a low of about 40 in that span.

                        I don't think that this precedence has that much bearing on today's situation except to point out that there could be a very large, sustained move coming (up or down).

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Spanky View Post
                          There is almost 0 chance $hui put in a long term (as in multiyear) low yesterday IMO. Yesterday it put in a black candle on the daily chart. It hasnít left behind a black candle on the daily chart in probably 20 years. It certainly hasnít left any behind since the January 2016 low was struck. Could this time be different? Sure I guess, but it would be an absolutely extreme outlier IMO (like 1 in 1,000). We could of course rally significantly before it heads back down, so I am not trying to say you couldnít make significant money trading it, but if you are looking for a long term buy and hold right here, you need to be prepared for at least a minor drawdown in the near future. FWIW.

                          I am still long my silver miners, but I am actually expecting them to do pretty much nothing for the next year or two--I base that outlook almost 100% on technicals, so I am "hoping" (there is that red flag word again) I am wrong about short term and longer term direction of the miners.
                          Spanky, This is exactly the kind of bearish pessimistic outlook that is found at ICLs... Just saying

                          I took a couple of long trades in the PM sector near the open as we are deep in my timing band for Gold & PMs to find an ICL. My work also shows the USD's Intermediate Cycle has likely topped after failing to regain the 200wma on the weekly chart.
                          Last edited by Surf City; 06-29-2018, 11:43 AM.
                          "Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." Sir John Templeton

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Surf City View Post

                            Spanky, This is exactly the kind of bearish pessimistic outlook that is found at ICLs... Just saying
                            Yeah, I suppose. But to me the weekly and monthly charts for $HUI or $XAU are not pretty at all, especially when looking at the significant MAs (the 20, 50, 100, 200 and 300 weekly and monthly MAs), their direction and their relationship with each other. So it's possible a major low has been struck, but in no way shape or form can the miners be interpreted as being in trending secular bulls yet based on the weekly and month charts IMO.

                            Also, even I am expecting a bounce. I just can't see $HUI or GDX getting back above their downsloping 100 WMAs for very long before rolling over.
                            Last edited by Spanky; 06-29-2018, 11:56 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Surf City View Post

                              Spanky, This is exactly the kind of bearish pessimistic outlook that is found at ICLs... Just saying

                              I took a couple of long trades in the PM sector near the open as we are deep in my timing band for Gold & PMs to find an ICL. My work also shows the USD's Intermediate Cycle has likely topped after failing to regain the 200wma on the weekly chart.
                              Other than the black candle on $HUI (and to a lesser extent GDXJ) I would say all systems go for a *potential* long term hold (I am talking about a multiyear buy and hold, not trading the IC). And again, even if this IC is left translated in the miners, you could still make loads of money just trading the IC trough to peak.
                              Last edited by Spanky; 06-29-2018, 11:58 AM.

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Gold:

                                https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...ising-support/

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Long silver as /si is looking bottomy on the hourly chart here at the bottom of its range ...stop under yesterday's low. Also got short the dollar via July 25 puts on UUP.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    @BobLoukas says "Week after week goes buy waiting for this #gold turn. Next week again? Super stretched now time wise. Miners are performing well though, and I like that."

                                    - - -

                                    It's not super-stretched timewise, sorry. The last weekly cycle low was about 6.5 months ago. The low before that was less than a year ago. The average cycle has been running almost exactly six months since the all-time high.

                                    The behavior of the miners is very encouraging, if to suggest that the low is in, or only that there are and will continue to be buyers who feel that gold is now cheap. But the rally today, which certainly has something to do with the Euro rally based on the report of an EU deal on how to handle the immigration, has faded and that is not encouraging. If the news-driven Euro rally hadn't happened, I suspect there would be no meaningful sign of a turn on the chart.

                                    It's true that we might get a weekly cycle low (or have gotten it now), followed by some dithering before the rally gets started in earnest (which always drives the bulls crazy), but last night the price came within eleven dollars of the previous weekly cycle low, and that target is highly significant. Peter Brandt tweeted about it yesterday. I'll knowingly contribute to the usual WCL despair now and say that in the gold market there have been many instances in which they "walk it down" methodically for many days and then they really zap it to get those very low sell-stops, and then it reverses. We should always remember that gold bulls are up against central banks whose traders know all about market psychology.

                                    Brandt says that a decisive close below $1238 will be the bearish signal. That might happen; they might hit the target intraday on a spike that initiates a big rally; they might shoot for the target but miss; and the low might already be in. We'll find out.

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      Originally posted by EnglishBulldog View Post
                                      @BobLoukas says "Week after week goes buy waiting for this #gold turn. Next week again? Super stretched now time wise. Miners are performing well though, and I like that."

                                      - - -

                                      It's not super-stretched timewise, sorry. The last weekly cycle low was about 6.5 months ago. The low before that was less than a year ago. The average cycle has been running almost exactly six months since the all-time high.

                                      The behavior of the miners is very encouraging, if to suggest that the low is in, or only that there are and will continue to be buyers who feel that gold is now cheap. But the rally today, which certainly has something to do with the Euro rally based on the report of an EU deal on how to handle the immigration, has faded and that is not encouraging. If the news-driven Euro rally hadn't happened, I suspect there would be no meaningful sign of a turn on the chart.

                                      It's true that we might get a weekly cycle low (or have gotten it now), followed by some dithering before the rally gets started in earnest (which always drives the bulls crazy), but last night the price came within eleven dollars of the previous weekly cycle low, and that target is highly significant. Peter Brandt tweeted about it yesterday. I'll knowingly contribute to the usual WCL despair now and say that in the gold market there have been many instances in which they "walk it down" methodically for many days and then they really zap it to get those very low sell-stops, and then it reverses. We should always remember that gold bulls are up against central banks whose traders know all about market psychology.

                                      Brandt says that a decisive close below $1238 will be the bearish signal. That might happen; they might hit the target intraday on a spike that initiates a big rally; they might shoot for the target but miss; and the low might already be in. We'll find out.
                                      How is Mr Brandt's track record on gold? Anyone follow?

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by adam n View Post

                                        How is Mr Brandt's track record on gold? Anyone follow?
                                        I don't know, but he seems to have traded for a living for something like four decades. In his tweet he says "hasn't happened, might not happen", and he does specify that a decisive close below $1238 is his criterion, not necessarily an intraday candle-tail below it.

                                        Comment


                                        • #21
                                          Good COT news, tweeted by Poly just now. I didn't emphasize above that a fast rally out of the low made during the session now ending is one of the scenarios. The COT readings are bullish. And just to be more explicit about the obvious, if the low is in, then we don't have a failed cycle, only what looks like a determined but thwarted attempted to create one. In which case the post-2015 bull market remains intact.

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Originally posted by MrMiyagi View Post

                                            "W" complete from earlier this week.

                                            Great call Mr M!
                                            have a great weekend

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              Originally posted by EnglishBulldog View Post
                                              Good COT news, tweeted by Poly just now. I didn't emphasize above that a fast rally out of the low made during the session now ending is one of the scenarios. The COT readings are bullish. And just to be more explicit about the obvious, if the low is in, then we don't have a failed cycle, only what looks like a determined but thwarted attempted to create one. In which case the post-2015 bull market remains intact.
                                              Its really not too bullish IMO. Silverís commercial net short position is still high. It improved from last week but not by much. I guarantee lower prices are coming, and possibly dramatically lower. Goldís CoT looks ok, but the commercial net short position can and has gone much lower at other important ICLs. When viewed along with silver, I think gold is likely headed even lower.

                                              Comment


                                              • #24
                                                Yen ($XJY) looks horrific on the weekly chart. We closed this week at the low. Arguably there is a H&S on the weekly chart and we are currently just below the neckline. It projects down to 85. Prepare for gold and silver to get wrecked.

                                                Comment

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