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Tuesday May 15th

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  • MrMiyagi
    started a topic Tuesday May 15th

    Tuesday May 15th

    Futures just on the red side of neutral with markets still in short-term overbought conditions.


  • Jim
    replied
    SPY:

    http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2...moneyflow.html

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    Stocks:

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    NYMO, P&F long tail down:

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    Charlie Bilello‏Verified account @charliebilello 38m38 minutes ago

    Dollar at its highest level of the year. Gold at its lowest level of the year.

    Leave a comment:


  • Surf City
    replied
    I have been bearish on Bonds since they peaked in mid-2016. Interest rates have moved in a 60 year SuperCycle (low to low) going back to the time of Hammurabi in 1750 BC according to Martin Armstrong. In any case, my long term cycle work shows that interest rates are likely headed higher for at least several more years. If correct, Bond prices (TLT), should be heading lower and that is what my Cycle & TA analysis shows.

    As a result, I have been shorting Bonds (TLT) with TBT on and off with success using TBT which I have had a position in for several days now. My chart shows TBT breaking out today but we should also see some backtesting before TLT has another failed DCL.

    Click image for larger version  Name:	TBT 2018-05-15 11.30.39_preview.jpg Views:	2 Size:	143.7 KB ID:	384426

    Leave a comment:


  • Spanky
    replied
    At this point I am going to assume that the 233 WMA for GDX is taken out, which is terrible technical action since we already have a positive cross of the 144 WMA. I'm all for bearish sentiment cleansing "bullish" sentiment, but cmon, it's not like the miners have been lighting the world on fire for 2 years. And silver, wow. Anyone expecting some sort of sling shot rally out of the next ICL is smoking crack.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    Bob Loukas‏ @BobLoukas 3h3 hours ago

    Protect Capital First…Then Worry about Winning Trades!

    Leave a comment:


  • EnglishBulldog
    replied
    Last night I shorted the Euro again such that I was lightly long gold and equally short the EURUSD. Just now, a few dollars higher, I doubled my long gold position, so now I'm 2:1 long gold:short EURUSD. I understand that the low for gold is probably not in yet, but this semi-hedged position won't be especially volatile. If gold bounces here, I might enter a breakeven stop order for today's buy. Don't know yet.

    So unless gold zigs and zags into a weekly cycle low in June or July, the theory is probably that it will complete another somewhat short weekly cycle soon, after the previous one which lasted just over 22 weeks. The current cycle is 22 weeks old today.

    It looks like the dollar is in control of currencies and precious metals at the moment. In today's dollar rally, gold has come down much more than most of the major paper currencies. So maybe there's a differential to be unwound during the next day or two.

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  • Surf City
    replied
    Originally posted by james rangel View Post
    Gold is now moving into the ICL. Hoping this time was different was not to be. We all knew deep down the probability was high.

    Nice to see sentiment so negative.

    Oh well time to add again
    Not just yet, IMO. Remember that ICL drops are scary and run stops (I bet there were lots of them near the 1300 level). This is needed to turn investor sentiment bearish and will fuel the move out of Gold's next ICL where I will be a buyer again.

    We could see a counter trend rally soon but unless this is a very short Trading / Daily Cycle, I still see lower lows ahead with stronger support on GLD near the 120 – 121 level.

    Leave a comment:


  • Sophia
    replied
    about to be stopped out...

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  • Sophia
    replied
    I am not the Queen of NYMO, but maybe today was the down leg of the Middle of M, then small up and then large down... I am long 2705.5 stop 2698 on the ES

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  • Spanky
    replied
    Originally posted by james rangel View Post
    Gold is now moving into the ICL. Hoping this time was different was not to be. We all knew deep down the probability was high.

    Nice to see sentiment so negative.

    Oh well time to add again
    It's not negative yet. I still have hope that major MAs hold up in the miners. Of course that means that they will smash GDX well below its 200 WMA.
    Last edited by Spanky; 05-15-2018, 12:54 PM.

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  • james rangel
    replied
    Gold is now moving into the ICL. Hoping this time was different was not to be. We all knew deep down the probability was high.

    Nice to see sentiment so negative.

    Oh well time to add again

    Leave a comment:


  • Surf City
    replied
    Gold chart from yesterday showing how late in Gold’'s longer Intermediate Cycle, price almost always tops on or before day 10 in Gold’s shorter Trading or Daily Cycle. Note where gold topped on day 8 right at my red cycle down trend.

    I bailed on my 3 long PM positions yesterday just before the drop started (UGLD @ 11.04, AGQ @ 31.83, etc.) My decision was based on the overlapping price structure in Gold which was not bullish, along with my cycle expectations that the USD would be moving higher after finding a mild TCL/DCL.

    Click image for larger version  Name:	Gold 2018-05-15 09.52.05_preview.jpg Views:	1 Size:	141.1 KB ID:	384413

    Leave a comment:


  • Spanky
    replied
    Needless to say, silver looks terrible on pretty much every single timeframe out to the monthly. There is a H&S neckline at about $16.10 that projects down to about $14.80 once broken (which right now looks pretty darn likely).

    Leave a comment:


  • Spanky
    replied
    One of my larger holdings is AXU, which has held in like a champ for 2 years. I could easily see the 144 WMA getting hit soon (this week or next) and potentially the 233 WMA at 1.12. A drop below the 233 WMA would certainly be scary, but par for the course.

    When the 5 week RSI dropped so quickly out of overbought territory, I knew that a trip lower was in the cards. I was "hoping" this time would be different (it never is). At a minimum that 5 week RSI will hit oversold before AXU finds a bottom.

    Click image for larger version

Name:	Screenshot-2018-5-15 AXU - Alexco Resource Corp .png
Views:	1
Size:	65.6 KB
ID:	384410


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  • Jim
    replied
    Ryan Detrick, CMT‏ @RyanDetrick 2h2 hours ago

    Let's say earnings growth did peak in Q1. What does it mean? Well, going back to '50 shows that we could have 49 more months until a recession and a median return of 30% for the S&P 500. That busts some bearish narratives right there .

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    Oil:

    https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...l-rally-10-80/

    Leave a comment:


  • Spanky
    replied
    People are going to short the crap out of the miners now on any uptick whatsoever. $hui back below its 50 dma. H&S in play now. 165 is baked in. A backtest of the neckline is of course possible and just presents another shorting opportunity.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    Poly:

    https://twitter.com/BobLoukas?ref_sr...public-blog%2F

    Leave a comment:


  • Surf City
    replied
    Gold Smashed, did you get out in time?

    Surf did yesterday and exited his long positions with a small profit. The price action out of the recent low never had an impulsive upside structure but he plans to be ready again at the next low.

    https://surfcity.co/2018/05/14/trade-alerts-3/

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    Futia:

    http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

    Leave a comment:


  • Spanky
    replied
    Beautiful h&s in play on the yen ($xjy). Projects down to 85, making it a left translated IC. Yikes. Buy buy, or bye bye?

    Leave a comment:


  • Spanky
    replied
    Hopium is a hell of a drug. Gold’s 5 week rsi never hit oversold, and we are 4 weeks away from the June fomc where they will hike. Plus gold is only on week 22 or so.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    Oscar:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGC1...re=youtu.be&a=

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    Peter Brandt‏Verified account @PeterLBrandt May 13

    Bear mkts in stocks begin when a small portion of stocks prop up general mkt while majority of stocks have begun decline. Just the opposite happening in U.S. equities. S&P500 $ES_F A/D line in new highs. Sound breadth. Bullish

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    NYMO::

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

    Leave a comment:


  • Jim
    replied
    Bonds:

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

    Leave a comment:

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