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Tuesday May 15th

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  • Tuesday May 15th

    Futures just on the red side of neutral with markets still in short-term overbought conditions.

    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
    Also.. I'm not the real Mr Miyagi; he's been dead since 2005.

  • #2
    Bonds:

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

    Comment


    • #3
      NYMO::

      http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

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      • #4
        Peter Brandt‏Verified account @PeterLBrandt May 13

        Bear mkts in stocks begin when a small portion of stocks prop up general mkt while majority of stocks have begun decline. Just the opposite happening in U.S. equities. S&P500 $ES_F A/D line in new highs. Sound breadth. Bullish

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        • #5
          Oscar:

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGC1...re=youtu.be&a=

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          • #6
            Hopium is a hell of a drug. Gold’s 5 week rsi never hit oversold, and we are 4 weeks away from the June fomc where they will hike. Plus gold is only on week 22 or so.

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            • #7
              Beautiful h&s in play on the yen ($xjy). Projects down to 85, making it a left translated IC. Yikes. Buy buy, or bye bye?

              Comment


              • #8
                Futia:

                http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

                Comment


                • #9
                  Gold Smashed, did you get out in time?

                  Surf did yesterday and exited his long positions with a small profit. The price action out of the recent low never had an impulsive upside structure but he plans to be ready again at the next low.

                  https://surfcity.co/2018/05/14/trade-alerts-3/
                  "Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." Sir John Templeton

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Poly:

                    https://twitter.com/BobLoukas?ref_sr...public-blog%2F

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      People are going to short the crap out of the miners now on any uptick whatsoever. $hui back below its 50 dma. H&S in play now. 165 is baked in. A backtest of the neckline is of course possible and just presents another shorting opportunity.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Oil:

                        https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/...l-rally-10-80/

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Ryan Detrick, CMT‏ @RyanDetrick 2h2 hours ago

                          Let's say earnings growth did peak in Q1. What does it mean? Well, going back to '50 shows that we could have 49 more months until a recession and a median return of 30% for the S&P 500. That busts some bearish narratives right there .

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            One of my larger holdings is AXU, which has held in like a champ for 2 years. I could easily see the 144 WMA getting hit soon (this week or next) and potentially the 233 WMA at 1.12. A drop below the 233 WMA would certainly be scary, but par for the course.

                            When the 5 week RSI dropped so quickly out of overbought territory, I knew that a trip lower was in the cards. I was "hoping" this time would be different (it never is). At a minimum that 5 week RSI will hit oversold before AXU finds a bottom.

                            Click image for larger version

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                            • #15
                              Needless to say, silver looks terrible on pretty much every single timeframe out to the monthly. There is a H&S neckline at about $16.10 that projects down to about $14.80 once broken (which right now looks pretty darn likely).

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                              • #16
                                Gold chart from yesterday showing how late in Gold’'s longer Intermediate Cycle, price almost always tops on or before day 10 in Gold’s shorter Trading or Daily Cycle. Note where gold topped on day 8 right at my red cycle down trend.

                                I bailed on my 3 long PM positions yesterday just before the drop started (UGLD @ 11.04, AGQ @ 31.83, etc.) My decision was based on the overlapping price structure in Gold which was not bullish, along with my cycle expectations that the USD would be moving higher after finding a mild TCL/DCL.

                                Click image for larger version  Name:	Gold 2018-05-15 09.52.05_preview.jpg Views:	1 Size:	141.1 KB ID:	384413
                                "Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." Sir John Templeton

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Gold is now moving into the ICL. Hoping this time was different was not to be. We all knew deep down the probability was high.

                                  Nice to see sentiment so negative.

                                  Oh well time to add again

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by james rangel View Post
                                    Gold is now moving into the ICL. Hoping this time was different was not to be. We all knew deep down the probability was high.

                                    Nice to see sentiment so negative.

                                    Oh well time to add again
                                    It's not negative yet. I still have hope that major MAs hold up in the miners. Of course that means that they will smash GDX well below its 200 WMA.
                                    Last edited by Spanky; 05-15-2018, 12:54 PM.

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                                    • #19
                                      I am not the Queen of NYMO, but maybe today was the down leg of the Middle of M, then small up and then large down... I am long 2705.5 stop 2698 on the ES

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                                      • #20
                                        about to be stopped out...

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                                        • #21
                                          Originally posted by james rangel View Post
                                          Gold is now moving into the ICL. Hoping this time was different was not to be. We all knew deep down the probability was high.

                                          Nice to see sentiment so negative.

                                          Oh well time to add again
                                          Not just yet, IMO. Remember that ICL drops are scary and run stops (I bet there were lots of them near the 1300 level). This is needed to turn investor sentiment bearish and will fuel the move out of Gold's next ICL where I will be a buyer again.

                                          We could see a counter trend rally soon but unless this is a very short Trading / Daily Cycle, I still see lower lows ahead with stronger support on GLD near the 120 – 121 level.
                                          "Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." Sir John Templeton

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Last night I shorted the Euro again such that I was lightly long gold and equally short the EURUSD. Just now, a few dollars higher, I doubled my long gold position, so now I'm 2:1 long gold:short EURUSD. I understand that the low for gold is probably not in yet, but this semi-hedged position won't be especially volatile. If gold bounces here, I might enter a breakeven stop order for today's buy. Don't know yet.

                                            So unless gold zigs and zags into a weekly cycle low in June or July, the theory is probably that it will complete another somewhat short weekly cycle soon, after the previous one which lasted just over 22 weeks. The current cycle is 22 weeks old today.

                                            It looks like the dollar is in control of currencies and precious metals at the moment. In today's dollar rally, gold has come down much more than most of the major paper currencies. So maybe there's a differential to be unwound during the next day or two.

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                                            • #23
                                              Bob Loukas‏ @BobLoukas 3h3 hours ago

                                              Protect Capital First…Then Worry about Winning Trades!

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                                              • #24
                                                At this point I am going to assume that the 233 WMA for GDX is taken out, which is terrible technical action since we already have a positive cross of the 144 WMA. I'm all for bearish sentiment cleansing "bullish" sentiment, but cmon, it's not like the miners have been lighting the world on fire for 2 years. And silver, wow. Anyone expecting some sort of sling shot rally out of the next ICL is smoking crack.

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                                                • #25
                                                  I have been bearish on Bonds since they peaked in mid-2016. Interest rates have moved in a 60 year SuperCycle (low to low) going back to the time of Hammurabi in 1750 BC according to Martin Armstrong. In any case, my long term cycle work shows that interest rates are likely headed higher for at least several more years. If correct, Bond prices (TLT), should be heading lower and that is what my Cycle & TA analysis shows.

                                                  As a result, I have been shorting Bonds (TLT) with TBT on and off with success using TBT which I have had a position in for several days now. My chart shows TBT breaking out today but we should also see some backtesting before TLT has another failed DCL.

                                                  Click image for larger version  Name:	TBT 2018-05-15 11.30.39_preview.jpg Views:	2 Size:	143.7 KB ID:	384426
                                                  "Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." Sir John Templeton

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                                                  • #26
                                                    Charlie Bilello‏Verified account @charliebilello 38m38 minutes ago

                                                    Dollar at its highest level of the year. Gold at its lowest level of the year.

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                                                    • #27
                                                      NYMO, P&F long tail down:

                                                      http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24NYMO

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #28
                                                        Stocks:

                                                        https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #29
                                                          SPY:

                                                          http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2...moneyflow.html

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