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Monday, August 27 - Dollar's Turn to Shine?

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  • Monday, August 27 - Dollar's Turn to Shine?

    Is the buck going to get moving now? Will gold even care? Inquiring minds want to know.

  • #2
    Or time for gold to put in a DCL.
    If you don't use it, love it or need it, get rid of it. ( Flylady)

    Comment


    • #3
      Bonjour Ms C and Neo!
      Good starting week to all BBT readers!

      The Asian market couldn´t bring new highs for platinum this morning.
      Waiting for the downside in the silver/euro/gold.

      Comment


      • #4
        hi everybody!

        back to the markets for good today. managed to buy back my short DAX on Friday below 6900, now waiting for the pop this afternoon to reload the short..
        Last edited by Sophia; 08-27-2012, 05:43 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          DAX: Head & Shoulders pattern.
          We are now building the right shoulder. If it doesn´t break throught the 7000, this pattern should be in place for the bearish reversal.

          Disappointing datas from China (again) today. Very calm markets at the moment.

          Comment


          • #6
            Morning alls,

            Yes very quiet market, London is closed, waiting for gold and silver to go down, I would like euro under 1.2484 pivot point to maybe form a crab

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Mickette View Post
              DAX: Head & Shoulders pattern.
              We are now building the right shoulder. If it doesn´t break throught the 7000, this pattern should be in place for the bearish reversal...
              Sophia, the DAX broke throught the 7000 level. Be careful there!

              Comment


              • #8
                thanks sweet Mickette! Still looking....sold my last Silver.... still long Gold

                Comment


                • #9
                  Good morning all and to our across the pond friends , Good Afternoon

                  It appears that everyone is waiting on the same thing a pullback and then everyone gets back in and we go higher again. As Gary has said in the past what if everyone tries to get in the door first if we get any pullback at all. It would seem that a small position should be kept and just know that you might have to weather a drawdown.
                  All the cycle guys are saying we should be getting a low anytime. My concern is what if the cycle is shallow and is not defined very well until later.
                  What about buying some calls and buying some puts. Straddles or strangles :-) or something.
                  I am not well versed in option spreads but would welcome anyone's opinion as a way to play this and not get left behind on a shallow cycle low.
                  “Democracy will soon degenerate into an anarchy; such an anarchy that every man will do what is right in his own eyes and no man's life or property or reputation or liberty will be secure…"
                  — John Adams

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Mickette,
                    I'm in the ZSL trade as well. I'll be on the road for 3 days and wont see my computer during the day, would you advise me to put a stop on it? tnx.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Hurricane, shmurricane, that oil short is flying!

                      Congrats to those who took the trade.
                      Last edited by Tex; 08-27-2012, 08:21 AM.
                      Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Gracegift View Post
                        Good morning all and to our across the pond friends , Good Afternoon

                        It appears that everyone is waiting on the same thing a pullback and then everyone gets back in and we go higher again. As Gary has said in the past what if everyone tries to get in the door first if we get any pullback at all. It would seem that a small position should be kept and just know that you might have to weather a drawdown.
                        All the cycle guys are saying we should be getting a low anytime. My concern is what if the cycle is shallow and is not defined very well until later.
                        What about buying some calls and buying some puts. Straddles or strangles :-) or something.
                        I am not well versed in option spreads but would welcome anyone's opinion as a way to play this and not get left behind on a shallow cycle low.
                        After getting in (pretty near the bottom on miners) a couple of months ago, I started selling on the way up and replacing with Dec ITM calls- maybe should have done Jan, but my intent was to exercise them. It's helped me go to cash while still keeping a nice piece of action in. The volume and the premiums suck on some of these (the NUGT and AGQ are less than ideal), but if I could find a good premium, I didn't worry about vol (since planning to exercise). Don't know if it was a good plan, but made sense to me.
                        “Should you fail to pilot your own ship, don't be surprised at what inappropriate port you find yourself docked.” ― Tom Robbins, Jitterbug Perfume

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          did Poly write a report last night? He talked about it, but I didnt get anything...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            He got in late and promised it this morning.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Pablo View Post
                              did Poly write a report last night? He talked about it, but I didnt get anything...
                              Hi Pablo, got back late unfortunately, but will put together a short note and a larger mid-week report.
                              "Stop thinking of income in terms of your time"

                              The Financial Tap - Cycles Analysis & Trading

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Originally posted by Gracegift View Post
                                Good morning all and to our across the pond friends , Good Afternoon

                                It appears that everyone is waiting on the same thing a pullback and then everyone gets back in and we go higher again. As Gary has said in the past what if everyone tries to get in the door first if we get any pullback at all. It would seem that a small position should be kept and just know that you might have to weather a drawdown.
                                All the cycle guys are saying we should be getting a low anytime. My concern is what if the cycle is shallow and is not defined very well until later.
                                What about buying some calls and buying some puts. Straddles or strangles :-) or something.
                                I am not well versed in option spreads but would welcome anyone's opinion as a way to play this and not get left behind on a shallow cycle low.
                                I hate to sound like a permabull, but I have been heavy AGQ and miners for a couple weeks now.

                                I've been saying that it appears to me that we finally have a PM trending market and it may not be smart to trade the wiggles,
                                (this coming from a guy who was in and out of metals and miners many times during the Spring and early summer).

                                Silver has been in a uptrend since late June as I have shown on my weekly charts.

                                AGQ is up today, for the 6th day in a row.

                                Sure it could, and probably will, pull back.

                                But what if it doesn't?

                                If you believe in the long term PM market, it makes sense to keep a chunk invested
                                at all times because I think surprises are likely to come to the UP side the rest of this year.

                                Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not advising anybody to load up here. But if/when we get a dip
                                and you get in, try to hold on for the long term instead of selling for a 1 or 2 day profit
                                (like I did a few weeks ago).

                                Just my
                                Last edited by Steve Tytler; 08-27-2012, 08:58 AM.

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Oil strong down

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    First oil target 93.1

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      Poly,

                                      Hope you had a great vacation...glad ya got home ok, good to have ya back. The kids have a good time?
                                      Give me the strength to die well. ~William Wallace

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by William Wallace View Post
                                        Poly,

                                        Hope you had a great vacation...glad ya got home ok, good to have ya back. The kids have a good time?
                                        Was really nice, weather perfect every minute and the kids enjoyed themselves. Glad to be back too. You good?
                                        "Stop thinking of income in terms of your time"

                                        The Financial Tap - Cycles Analysis & Trading

                                        Comment


                                        • #21
                                          gold may not go down , even $usd up
                                          Originally posted by Cedric View Post
                                          Oil strong down

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Nat Gas currently at 100MA approaching some sweet spots

                                            ...one gold money clip with no money in it

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              cannot sell short AAPL in my IRA account??

                                              Comment


                                              • #24
                                                oa92000 - I think that in order to sell short, we need a margin account. IRA account typically do not allow margins. But I think you can buy puts in the IRA. The only thing is that you have to have the full amount of cash that equals the strike price of the put available (i.e. can't trade that amount).

                                                Originally posted by oa92000 View Post
                                                cannot sell short AAPL in my IRA account??
                                                Manage your losses and your profits will take care of itself.

                                                Comment


                                                • #25
                                                  If gold is planning to go into a DCL, today's action is playing nicely towards that end. A new high, narrow range day... tomorrow, it should start going down, no matter how short or shallow the move.
                                                  Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                  Comment


                                                  • #26
                                                    Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                                    If gold is planning to go into a DCL, today's action is playing nicely towards that end. A new high, narrow range day... tomorrow, it should start going down, no matter how short or shallow the move.
                                                    it looks like silver doesn't want to go down no matter what

                                                    Comment


                                                    • #27
                                                      Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                      it looks like silver doesn't want to go down no matter what
                                                      Silver is a beast.
                                                      Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #28
                                                        Originally posted by oa92000 View Post
                                                        cannot sell short AAPL in my IRA account??
                                                        IRA's cannot be margin accounts and shorting require margin.

                                                        If you want to short AAPL, use deep in the money puts--puts with delta above .90.

                                                        Or sell vertical call spreads or buy vertical put spreads.
                                                        A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #29
                                                          The alternating down/up week pattern that has been in effect for months, is saying that gold should finish the week down... unless the pattern breaks this week.
                                                          Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                          Comment


                                                          • #30
                                                            It's possible we see the Dollar put in a new low this week, but it may be short lived and part of this DC which looks to be on day 2 now.... this type of DC is rare (every other IC or so), where we see the dollar move to a new low within the first week of a new DC, then move to a new DC high, and then eventually roll over into a failing DCL. The SPX and Gold would most likely push to new marginal DC highs.
                                                            Give me the strength to die well. ~William Wallace

                                                            Comment


                                                            • #31
                                                              Shanghai hit a new 52-week low this morning.

                                                              What a disconnect. SPX hits a new 52-week high last Tuesday, and less than a week later, Shanghai puts in a new 52-week low.
                                                              "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." ~ Mahatma Gandhi

                                                              Comment


                                                              • #32
                                                                For you JHNewman: http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions....ignoraug27.jpg

                                                                Comment


                                                                • #33
                                                                  TLT doesn't seem to be buying this rally right now... Up solidly.
                                                                  "It's too early to get excited, but I think there are a couple of green shoots that say we're not going down as heavily in the first quarter [of 2009] as we were in the fourth quarter [of 2008]." - Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, February 2009

                                                                  Comment


                                                                  • #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Neo View Post


                                                                    Thanks, Neo!
                                                                    "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." ~ Mahatma Gandhi

                                                                    Comment


                                                                    • #35
                                                                      Gee wiz what happen to the midnight raids and jpm smashing silver/gold? Did I step out from bazzaro world back into the twilight zone.?

                                                                      Comment


                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Zsl.......ouch!

                                                                        Comment


                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Originally posted by Noodlesjrr View Post
                                                                          Gee wiz what happen to the midnight raids and jpm smashing silver/gold? Did I step out from bazzaro world back into the twilight zone.?
                                                                          Yes, you did.
                                                                          Look what I can do!

                                                                          Comment


                                                                          • #38
                                                                            Originally posted by Silver Star View Post
                                                                            Zsl.......ouch!
                                                                            Now you see why I didn't want to short silver last week.

                                                                            It still might go down, but silver is definitely in an UP trend and
                                                                            I don't like to short a bull market.

                                                                            I'm riding my AGQ and will add more if/when we get a dip.

                                                                            Frankly, I'm hoping for a pull back to $44 or $45 ... but no guarantee
                                                                            it will get there.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                            • #39
                                                                              Would like to see the gaps get filled between 42 and 45

                                                                              Comment


                                                                              • #40
                                                                                Originally posted by Steve Tytler View Post
                                                                                Now you see why I didn't want to short silver last week.

                                                                                It still might go down, but silver is definitely in an UP trend and
                                                                                I don't like to short a bull market.

                                                                                I'm riding my AGQ and will add more if/when we get a dip.

                                                                                Frankly, I'm hoping for a pull back to $44 or $45 ... but no guarantee
                                                                                it will get there.
                                                                                you wouldn't have posted it anyway unless it's a winner, real time or not.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  If the dollar doesn't wake up soon, I'm going to put its finger in a glass of water, glue its shoes together, and draw a mustache on it with a magic marker.
                                                                                  Don't follow me! My trading tools are a box of crayons, a magic eight-ball, and a big bottle of scotch.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    Imaginative!
                                                                                    Originally posted by muttonfish View Post
                                                                                    If the dollar doesn't wake up soon, I'm going to put its finger in a glass of water, glue its shoes together, and draw a mustache on it with a magic marker.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      I think there's a real lesson to be learned here for some of us who follow The Tap...feel free to correct me if I'm wrong:

                                                                                      Do not sell a position bought at the ICL at all and instead, hold it through the entire IC even if it looks extremely weak, and let the stops get hit if the IC is to be a failure. Rather lose ~5% or whatever than to miss 10%+ and lose strong hand status. Especially when the ICL is at the strongest support level.

                                                                                      Now only we can watch and hope the ICL isn't much higher than where its at now.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by jhnewman View Post
                                                                                        Shanghai hit a new 52-week low this morning.

                                                                                        What a disconnect. SPX hits a new 52-week high last Tuesday, and less than a week later, Shanghai puts in a new 52-week low.
                                                                                        That's easy. Big Ben is not supporting the Shanghai index.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                        • #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by Silver Star View Post
                                                                                          Zsl.......ouch!
                                                                                          Shorting silver is like shorting AAPL. Cut your losses fast or it can get painful. As i said, I made money on ZSL ONCE...

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                          • #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                                                            I think there's a real lesson to be learned here for some of us who follow The Tap...feel free to correct me if I'm wrong:

                                                                                            Do not sell a position bought at the ICL at all and instead, hold it through the entire IC even if it looks extremely weak, and let the stops get hit if the IC is to be a failure. Rather lose ~5% or whatever than to miss 10%+ and lose strong hand status. Especially when the ICL is at the strongest support level.

                                                                                            Now only we can watch and hope the ICL isn't much higher than where its at now.
                                                                                            unfortunately I think it will be if you wait for the ICL

                                                                                            Mickette is oddly absent today

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                            • #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                                                              I think there's a real lesson to be learned here for some of us who follow The Tap...feel free to correct me if I'm wrong:

                                                                                              Do not sell a position bought at the ICL at all and instead, hold it through the entire IC even if it looks extremely weak, and let the stops get hit if the IC is to be a failure. Rather lose ~5% or whatever than to miss 10%+ and lose strong hand status. Especially when the ICL is at the strongest support level.

                                                                                              Now only we can watch and hope the ICL isn't much higher than where its at now.
                                                                                              Good advice. The holding through a weak market helped me to build some fortitude or persistence or whatever you want to call it. And I can hold through more draw downs to come when I remember the prize is still way out there in front of me. For me the hardest thing to do was to do nothing.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                              • #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by Tex View Post
                                                                                                Silver is a beast.
                                                                                                5th day over the BB. Getting crazy.

                                                                                                SLV - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                • #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                                                                  you wouldn't have posted it anyway unless it's a winner, real time or not.
                                                                                                  What are you talking about?

                                                                                                  I've been encouraging people to buy silver for a couple of weeks.

                                                                                                  This was no "hindsight" trade.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                  • #50
                                                                                                    does not look like gold & silver going to drop...getting very quiet..fildelity is pushing for PM

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                    • #51
                                                                                                      Originally posted by MikeS View Post
                                                                                                      unfortunately I think it will be if you wait for the ICL

                                                                                                      Mickette is oddly absent today
                                                                                                      Lets go long, the both of us.

                                                                                                      Then silver will surely drop in no time.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                      • #52
                                                                                                        Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                                                                        I think there's a real lesson to be learned here for some of us who follow The Tap...feel free to correct me if I'm wrong:

                                                                                                        Do not sell a position bought at the ICL at all and instead, hold it through the entire IC even if it looks extremely weak, and let the stops get hit if the IC is to be a failure. Rather lose ~5% or whatever than to miss 10%+ and lose strong hand status. Especially when the ICL is at the strongest support level.

                                                                                                        Now only we can watch and hope the ICL isn't much higher than where its at now.
                                                                                                        If you hold through "the entire IC" you think you will be able to exit at a top... almost impossible. Unless you plan on holding through ICL declines also.
                                                                                                        Give me the strength to die well. ~William Wallace

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                        • #53
                                                                                                          Originally posted by SF Giants Fan View Post
                                                                                                          5th day over the BB. Getting crazy.

                                                                                                          SLV - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
                                                                                                          Silver reminds me of the honeybadger

                                                                                                          Such a badass

                                                                                                          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r7wHMg5Yjg
                                                                                                          Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                          • #54
                                                                                                            Originally posted by William Wallace View Post
                                                                                                            If you hold through "the entire IC" you think you will be able to exit at a top... almost impossible. Unless you plan on holding through ICL declines also.
                                                                                                            No, but my point was if you hold instead of selling early, a break in either direction would give you a set of much clearer choices; either you get stopped out and take a small loss, or you let the position run and decide to take profits whenever, before the IC is over. if no breka in either direction, again worse case you sell for a small loss

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                            • #55
                                                                                                              Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                                                                              No, but my point was if you hold instead of selling early, a break in either direction would give you a set of much clearer choices; either you get stopped out and take a small loss, or you let the position run and decide to take profits whenever, before the IC is over. if no breka in either direction, again worse case you sell for a small loss
                                                                                                              I understand But you'll see that if you dont plan on holding through IC declines and "decide to take profits" you will either be "selling early" or watching most of your profits evaporate again, exiting with a small gain (again, unless you plan on holding through IC declines, or can exit near tops)
                                                                                                              Give me the strength to die well. ~William Wallace

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                              • #56
                                                                                                                Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                                                                                I think there's a real lesson to be learned here for some of us who follow The Tap...feel free to correct me if I'm wrong:

                                                                                                                Do not sell a position bought at the ICL at all and instead, hold it through the entire IC even if it looks extremely weak, and let the stops get hit if the IC is to be a failure. Rather lose ~5% or whatever than to miss 10%+ and lose strong hand status. Especially when the ICL is at the strongest support level.

                                                                                                                Now only we can watch and hope the ICL isn't much higher than where its at now.
                                                                                                                I just hope that those who do have a core, have a larger percentage of their NW in that core, than Poly has indicated, his percentage is just way too small in my opinion.
                                                                                                                Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                • #57
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by William Wallace View Post
                                                                                                                  It's possible we see the Dollar put in a new low this week, but it may be short lived and part of this DC which looks to be on day 2 now.... this type of DC is rare (every other IC or so), where we see the dollar move to a new low within the first week of a new DC, then move to a new DC high, and then eventually roll over into a failing DCL. The SPX and Gold would most likely push to new marginal DC highs.
                                                                                                                  I'm not sure Bressert would allow that kind of cycle. If the dollar moves to a new low, making it a failed cycle, and THEN moves to a new high, I believe Bressert and most cycle guys would rephase the cycle and use the "new low" as the DCL.
                                                                                                                  A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                  • #58
                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Metal Head View Post
                                                                                                                    No, but my point was if you hold instead of selling early, a break in either direction would give you a set of much clearer choices; either you get stopped out and take a small loss, or you let the position run and decide to take profits whenever, before the IC is over. if no breka in either direction, again worse case you sell for a small loss
                                                                                                                    This is the heartbreak of trading. It sounds so simple, but it is so difficult to execute this in real time.

                                                                                                                    So often, trading consists of the feeling that we could have done better, no matter what we did.

                                                                                                                    Should have gotten in the trade sooner.
                                                                                                                    Should have waited and gotten in the trade later.
                                                                                                                    Should have gotten out sooner.
                                                                                                                    Should have waited and gotten out later.
                                                                                                                    Shouldn't have taken the trade at all.
                                                                                                                    Should have taken the trade instead of just sitting there.

                                                                                                                    You know you've made it as a trader when you can truly evaluate your trades based on whether you followed your trading plan, and ONLY on whether you followed your trading plan -- not on whether the trade made any money, which is completely out of your hands. If you are a good trader and your edge is backtested, you'll make money over time if you follow your plan.
                                                                                                                    Last edited by Bunnyfish; 08-27-2012, 12:19 PM.
                                                                                                                    Don't follow me! My trading tools are a box of crayons, a magic eight-ball, and a big bottle of scotch.

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                    • #59
                                                                                                                      Originally posted by SF Giants Fan View Post
                                                                                                                      5th day over the BB. Getting crazy.

                                                                                                                      SLV - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
                                                                                                                      I have the upper BB on the weekly chart at 31.63. Let's see if it will get there, and if so, will it mark some kind of high, even short term.
                                                                                                                      A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe’ —a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts, and feelings, as something separated from the rest—a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us... Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.”--Albert Einstein

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                      • #60
                                                                                                                        Originally posted by William Wallace View Post
                                                                                                                        It's possible we see the Dollar put in a new low this week, but it may be short lived and part of this DC which looks to be on day 2 now.... this type of DC is rare (every other IC or so), where we see the dollar move to a new low within the first week of a new DC, then move to a new DC high, and then eventually roll over into a failing DCL. The SPX and Gold would most likely push to new marginal DC highs.
                                                                                                                        Not sure how you can mark it like that - wouldn't that make the newer low in the first week a DCL, rather than the prior low?

                                                                                                                        Comment

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