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Index trading week of 20140202-20140209

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  • Index trading week of 20140202-20140209

    Looking over the threads here, I don't see one appropriate to post my trading in. For one I'm a bit spammy and two, the others seem to focus on stocks more than the indices. I've gotten into a bit of a habit of not explaining why I'm taking a trade so feel free to ask questions if you're curious.

    I trade /ES almost solely and since many of you all aren't familiar with my trading or results, I guess I start off the first thread with a bit of history. These results come from realtime publicly posted trades on TF and will be continued here.

    2012: 327.50 handles, weekly average 8.67, max gain 50.25, max loss 23.

    2013: 537.50 handles, weekly average: 15.36, max gain 47, max loss 7.25.

    2014, so far: 167.75 handles, weekly average 20.97, max gain 38.75, max loss 3.

    Current week: +18.25, long from 1844.75 stop at 1847.50.
    It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

    If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

    Festina lente.

  • #2
    Out, +2.75. Short from 1847.25.
    It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

    If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

    Festina lente.

    Comment


    • #3
      I generally start with a 3 handle stop though if there's a good spot for it (just over/under recent high/low) it'll be smaller. I very rarely go larger and *NEVER* over 5.
      It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

      If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

      Festina lente.

      Comment


      • #4
        Stop to 1846.25
        It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

        If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

        Festina lente.

        Comment


        • #5
          Flipped long at 1846, +1.25.

          Looks like me might have bounced off vwap and going higher. I guess we'll see!
          It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

          If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

          Festina lente.

          Comment


          • #6
            Nope, still like downside.

            Flipped short 1845, -1.
            It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

            If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

            Festina lente.

            Comment


            • #7
              Out of that a bit ago for -2.
              It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

              If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

              Festina lente.

              Comment


              • #8
                Long from 1848.
                It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                Festina lente.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hi Asi,

                  So happy to see you are here. I see Norseman has found you too. I hope Jubber finds you. I am still trying to get Avatar loaded, it will not accept my png. Good Trading. I wish I had more e-mails to link here.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I've been pretty spammed since last night (lots of people had my email) and I'm pointing them here. I'm sure there will be an influx of tf refugees over the next few weeks. [Edit: Norseman has been here a long time - he's why I registered to begin with.]
                    It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                    If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                    Festina lente.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Flipped short 1846.50, -1.50.
                      It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                      If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                      Festina lente.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Hello Asi,

                        Glad to see you started this thread. Hopefully, more TF'ers will follow.

                        Merc aka "V"

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Well, there's a lot of good stuff already here - more active trade talk - but it seems to mainly be stocks. That's why I just started this.
                          It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                          If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                          Festina lente.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Hopefully this will catch on...

                            Like watching paint dry today.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Something sure as hell just hit, hard.
                              It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                              If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                              Festina lente.

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Bounced right off the 38.2 on the 5 m

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Yen and internals say it has further to go.
                                  It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                  If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                  Festina lente.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by Asimov View Post
                                    I've been pretty spammed since last night (lots of people had my email) and I'm pointing them here. I'm sure there will be an influx of tf refugees over the next few weeks. [Edit: Norseman has been here a long time - he's why I registered to begin with.]
                                    Welcome to the site and anyone else you bring over. I respect good traders and posters.
                                    "Stop thinking of income in terms of your time"

                                    The Financial Tap - Cycles Analysis & Trading

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      Hi Asimov... Thanks for coming to visit us, it is a nice bunch of people, lots of great traders but with a gentlemen attitude

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        Asi, Glad you have some more e-mails and more Tf traders coming. Just to let you know, if I don't post or answer e-mails, I am getting ready for a trip to NH and will be gone Fri, Sat, and Sunday. Happy to register here. Still setting up. I have to turn off adblock to load the avatar. Happy Trading Yes, Norseman has been here a while, and I gave the link to Cosa. I need to e-mail him about the new thread.
                                        Last edited by LadyoftheLake; 02-25-2014, 02:43 PM. Reason: more info

                                        Comment


                                        • #21
                                          Stop to 1844.50.
                                          It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                          If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                          Festina lente.

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Out at 1843, +3.5.
                                            It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                            If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                            Festina lente.

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              Nice little trade. Strong defense of 1840.

                                              Comment


                                              • #24
                                                I'm not so sure there was any defense there, just the typical buy the bell... Though it has been a bit of a level, so maybe that's what it was.
                                                It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                Festina lente.

                                                Comment


                                                • #25
                                                  Short 1847.50, 1 handle stop.
                                                  It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                  If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                  Festina lente.

                                                  Comment


                                                  • #26
                                                    Hah.

                                                    It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                    If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                    Festina lente.

                                                    Comment


                                                    • #27
                                                      Out, -1.
                                                      It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                      If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                      Festina lente.

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #28
                                                        Short 1848.25, 1 handle stop. Probably last attempt here.
                                                        It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                        If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                        Festina lente.

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #29
                                                          -1, and done for the night I believe.
                                                          It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                          If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                          Festina lente.

                                                          Comment


                                                          • #30
                                                            Ok, one more to sleep on. :P

                                                            Short 1850.75.
                                                            It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                            If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                            Festina lente.

                                                            Comment


                                                            • #31
                                                              Stop to 1849.75.
                                                              It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                              If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                              Festina lente.

                                                              Comment


                                                              • #32
                                                                Really nice open today! Could be one of those deeply red days... but for now I'm sorta expecting a nasty bounce in the next couple hours.

                                                                Start getting a series of low ticks and a bit of panic selling and that opinion will change.
                                                                It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                Festina lente.

                                                                Comment


                                                                • #33
                                                                  Stop to 1845.
                                                                  It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                  If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                  Festina lente.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                  • #34
                                                                    Out +5.75.
                                                                    It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                    If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                    Festina lente.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                    • #35
                                                                      Hmm... Can't decide if that was it or we have further to fall. Not seeing any big improvement in fx or internals to match that bounce...

                                                                      Then again, looking better all the time.

                                                                      Ok, I'll try. Long 1844.25.
                                                                      It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                      If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                      Festina lente.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                      • #36
                                                                        What's the accepted way to post things like charts and stuff? The size limits on attachments seem to be a bit small.
                                                                        It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                        If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                        Festina lente.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Shit, looks like it was just going for vwap and that was it.

                                                                          Flipped short 1843.50, -0.75.
                                                                          It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                          If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                          Festina lente.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                          • #38
                                                                            Being too twitchy this morning. Need to go with my first reaction and stick with it.

                                                                            Back long 1844.75, -1.25.
                                                                            It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                            If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                            Festina lente.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                            • #39
                                                                              I believe attach with jpg or jepg, your picture will be a lot bigger. PNG picture are smaller. Nice trades.
                                                                              Originally posted by Asimov View Post
                                                                              What's the accepted way to post things like charts and stuff? The size limits on attachments seem to be a bit small.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                              • #40
                                                                                Oh. I was trying png. That must be the problem. Wonder why the difference?

                                                                                Anyway.. Stop to 1847.
                                                                                It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                Festina lente.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  I use a lot of custom indicators. Matter of fact, I don't use very many at all that I didn't write.

                                                                                  Here's an overview of my main window.

                                                                                  Click image for larger version

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                                                                                  It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                  If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                  Festina lente.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    Lets see what I can do about the quality there.

                                                                                    Here's the 1m portion.

                                                                                    Click image for larger version

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                                                                                    It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                    If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                    Festina lente.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      Uhg. Quality is horrible compared to png. No big deal though, you can see what matters.
                                                                                      It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                      If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                      Festina lente.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        FYI - If you use an external site rather than uploading a file, the pic is much bigger.

                                                                                        Example below:



                                                                                        ADD: Well, perhaps I should have said bigger instead of "much" bigger.
                                                                                        Last edited by WeToddDid; 02-26-2014, 10:53 AM.
                                                                                        If you listen to anything I post, you is dumber than a WeTodd. I DO NOT know what will happen in the future.
                                                                                        An investor/trader can remain irrational longer than the investor/trader can remain solvent.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                        • #45
                                                                                          Yea, and I understand why it's done that way, especially on a forum that has a lot of image content like this one.
                                                                                          It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                          If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                          Festina lente.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                          • #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by Asimov View Post
                                                                                            Uhg. Quality is horrible compared to png. No big deal though, you can see what matters.
                                                                                            TOS window does not show well for some reason. May be it does not have enough details in the picture itself. Even a stockcharts is much better.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                            • #47
                                                                                              Here's one of my main indicators. It takes quite some time to get used to and understand fully because it's not a typical way of looking at it.

                                                                                              I call it FX relative strength. It displays 8 currencies and /ES as lines (key at the top.) It does *NOT* display currency crosses.

                                                                                              It pulls in every cross between all 8 currencies and uses that data to compute the relative strength of each. Where this comes in REAL handy is probably going to need an example but I'll try to explain. If you follow usd/jpy as a tool in trading the indices, it works quite well but sometimes the correlation goes absolutely to shit. The reason is that the indices are following the yen strength and usd/jpy is just one way to look at it. If both usd and yen are falling but usd is falling faster, you'll get usd/jpy going UP [Edit: I meant down.] when the strength of the yen is actually going down. That blows the usd/jpy->/ES correlation all to hell - inverts it actually.

                                                                                              This chart eliminates that problem. You just watch the yen itself.

                                                                                              The lines are all calculated on a percentage move basis and /ES is (currently) displayed at 5x it's actual percentage move to make it fit better. That multiplier varies (manually) with time. During real slow market times it may be higher, during real fast ones it should be lower. The goal with that is to keep everything generally looking right and not having one line going atmospheric and driving the others to display in a smaller and smaller vertical space.

                                                                                              Note: This can *NOT* be traded directly in any way, shape or form. It's a contextual clue on how FX is behaving that allows you to judge based on every cross between 8 currencies without having to watch 32 or so charts.

                                                                                              Click image for larger version

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                                                                                              Last edited by Asimov; 02-26-2014, 11:41 AM.
                                                                                              It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                              If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                              Festina lente.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                              • #48
                                                                                                .....
                                                                                                If you listen to anything I post, you is dumber than a WeTodd. I DO NOT know what will happen in the future.
                                                                                                An investor/trader can remain irrational longer than the investor/trader can remain solvent.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                • #49
                                                                                                  Jin: In the first post, the whole window - I run a 2048x desktop so the forum compressed the hell out of it. I'll just show smaller chunks from now on.
                                                                                                  It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                                  If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                                  Festina lente.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                  • #50
                                                                                                    Out of that trade for +2.25, but should have probably ran a looser stop and kept it below vwap by a handle or so.. Likely to bounce again here.
                                                                                                    It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                                    If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                                    Festina lente.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                    • #51
                                                                                                      Long 1848.25.
                                                                                                      It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                                      If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                                      Festina lente.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                      • #52
                                                                                                        Flipped short 1847.75, -0.50.
                                                                                                        It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                                        If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                                        Festina lente.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                        • #53
                                                                                                          Hello Asi,

                                                                                                          Just checking in to see how the new site is working out. Another "watch the paint dry" day. My new trading plan is to take the day off until the last 30 min.

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                          • #54
                                                                                                            I don't think I can call any day with 12 handles down and 10 up a paint drying day.

                                                                                                            But what matters is what works for you.
                                                                                                            It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                                            If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                                            Festina lente.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                            • #55
                                                                                                              Don't like this yen move but it's barely impacted /ES at all.

                                                                                                              Hmm...

                                                                                                              Flipped long at 1849.75, -2.
                                                                                                              It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                                              If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                                              Festina lente.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                              • #56
                                                                                                                Asimov,

                                                                                                                I would be interested in hearing a little on your background, in terms of trading style. What are you trading, frequency, what are you looking at in particular, that type of deal. It will help put many of your posts in context, considering most of us here don't know you......yet.

                                                                                                                Cheers.
                                                                                                                "Stop thinking of income in terms of your time"

                                                                                                                The Financial Tap - Cycles Analysis & Trading

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                • #57
                                                                                                                  I'm entirely self taught (with the help of many people online.) I started paying attention to the markets in 2007 and started paper trading about the same time. I paper traded for about 18 months or so before I started trading for real and I've been trading ever since. [Edit: Sometimes with real money and sometimes paper trading. I tend to go back to paper anytime there's a big change in the markets that makes my methods stop working.] Primarily /ES but also trade bonds, options and FX from time to time. Rarely trade stocks.

                                                                                                                  About 3-4 years or so ago, I moved from trading 1m charts to trading 5m and it helped tremendously with my overtrading - which is, and will probably always be, my biggest problem.

                                                                                                                  I mainly base my trades on price action but I'm influenced quite heavily by a few indicators I've written. Some are go/no-go, some are more to give hints as to strength/etc. Some I don't mind going into detail on (like the FX relative strength mentioned above) but some I'd prefer to keep the actual functionality proprietary. I will go into more detail on them as time goes by but I don't have the time to try to describe them all at once. They're mainly momentum and momentum change indicators. I'll try to start describing them a bit at a time as I go, particularly when they give a good example of their behavior with current price action.
                                                                                                                  It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                                                  If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                                                  Festina lente.

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                  • #58
                                                                                                                    Oops. Out, -2.

                                                                                                                    now what brought that on?
                                                                                                                    It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                                                    If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                                                    Festina lente.

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                    • #59
                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Asimov View Post
                                                                                                                      I'm entirely self taught (with the help of many people online.) I started paying attention to the markets in 2007 and started paper trading about the same time. I paper traded for about 18 months or so before I started trading for real and I've been trading ever since. [Edit: Sometimes with real money and sometimes paper trading. I tend to go back to paper anytime there's a big change in the markets that makes my methods stop working.] Primarily /ES but also trade bonds, options and FX from time to time. Rarely trade stocks.

                                                                                                                      About 3-4 years or so ago, I moved from trading 1m charts to trading 5m and it helped tremendously with my overtrading - which is, and will probably always be, my biggest problem.

                                                                                                                      I mainly base my trades on price action but I'm influenced quite heavily by a few indicators I've written. Some are go/no-go, some are more to give hints as to strength/etc. Some I don't mind going into detail on (like the FX relative strength mentioned above) but some I'd prefer to keep the actual functionality proprietary. I will go into more detail on them as time goes by but I don't have the time to try to describe them all at once. They're mainly momentum and momentum change indicators. I'll try to start describing them a bit at a time as I go, particularly when they give a good example of their behavior with current price action.
                                                                                                                      Excellent, thanks for sharing.
                                                                                                                      "Stop thinking of income in terms of your time"

                                                                                                                      The Financial Tap - Cycles Analysis & Trading

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                      • #60
                                                                                                                        Short 1847.50. Keeps putting in lower lows and lower highs right at vwap. A break one way or another should get a number of handles and there's a clear stop out over the most recent high. Right now it looks like it's going to be down. Yen has been trending up since about 12:30 and I see no signs it's going to stop.

                                                                                                                        Internals (as seen by xenagogue - an indicator of mine that tracks internals (trin, trin/q, vix, vxn, tick and tick/q) - and it's delta, below it) have spiked up but are now on the move back down again. (Lower two indicators on this 1m chart.)

                                                                                                                        Click image for larger version

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                                                                                                                        It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

                                                                                                                        If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible.

                                                                                                                        Festina lente.

                                                                                                                        Comment

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