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Weekend Thread - JAN 26th and 27th - THE GOLD BULL IS DEAD.

This is a discussion on Weekend Thread - JAN 26th and 27th - THE GOLD BULL IS DEAD. within the The Lounge forums, part of the Bull Bear Talk Forums category; The economy is fixed and a new Equity bull market has begun. Sell your bullion....

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    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    Weekend Thread - JAN 26th and 27th - THE GOLD BULL IS DEAD.

    The economy is fixed and a new Equity bull market has begun. Sell your bullion.
    Shakey, Persephone, Keys and 4 others like this.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    The economy is fixed and a new Equity bull market has begun. Sell your bullion.
    Poly, are you backing up Armstrong's recent statement? Gold – What Now | Armstrong Economics
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    Poly: are you being sarcastic?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Poly: are you being sarcastic?
    I think he is... as nothing has changed in the financials and money printing. It's all just an illusion. Look at this hand, not the other hand behind my back game going on.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Poly: are you being sarcastic?
    Yes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by At Ease View Post
    Poly, are you backing up Armstrong's recent statement? Gold – What Now | Armstrong Economics
    No I don't hold those views. ALthough I will grant them that gold is still in a downtrend and has not shown us a new trend.
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    Whew...thanks! Given how tough the PM Market has been, not to mention Armstrong's artcile which At Ease posted, I was very worried. Heck, my own sentiment is in the toilet...I don't want to touch anything PM. But what do I know?
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    Poly: When the SPX finaly decides to correct, won't it further drag the miners and gold with it? OVersold miners be damned.

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    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Poly: When the SPX finaly decides to correct, won't it further drag the miners and gold with it? OVersold miners be damned.
    No quite the contrary I expect. The miners are very negatively correlated to SPX here, so we want equities to fall.
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    Wow Poly, u stayng up late!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    No quite the contrary I expect. The miners are very negatively correlated to SPX here, so we want equities to fall.

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    BBT Aficionado Sophia's Avatar

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    Poly,

    thank for your support on those tough markets...I have to say that this week killed me, but I am sticking to my Gold/Silver as I bought not too far from here.... BUT, the equity market made a serious dent in my portfolio, and I realised that between Tom Demark, Doug Kass, Larry Posevento and all those smart people, Ben B. nailed them and the all tricks don't seem to work anymore.... Time to regroup and take a step down....
    Wishing you a fun family time this weekend ( gym for 5 years old right? ) . Did that few years ago, it is priceless

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    The economy is fixed and a new Equity bull market has begun. Sell your bullion.
    Ok, if you say so. Just think I've held all these yrs and now I have to sell, makes me sad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Wow Poly, u stayng up late!!!
    No, I'm just up early.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sophia View Post
    Poly,

    thank for your support on those tough markets...I have to say that this week killed me, but I am sticking to my Gold/Silver as I bought not too far from here.... BUT, the equity market made a serious dent in my portfolio, and I realised that between Tom Demark, Doug Kass, Larry Posevento and all those smart people, Ben B. nailed them and the all tricks don't seem to work anymore.... Time to regroup and take a step down....
    Wishing you a fun family time this weekend ( gym for 5 years old right? ) . Did that few years ago, it is priceless
    I've been there in the past, we learn the hard way. If you're trading the market, might as well try and trade it long, you would at least have the dominant trend behind you.

    Yes 5 yr old gymnastics and the Ice skating. The 8 yr old has Ice Hockey late in the afternoon. Coming off a 4 hour Friday night sleep makes it a long, but yes very rewarding day.
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    Improvements or Changes in Market Transparency Coming?

    Apparently not.

    A couple of informed commentators provide insight into the causes for some of the illogical, opaque workings of today's markets in the U.S.:

    Rolling Stone, Choice of Mary Jo White to Head SEC Puts Fox In Charge of Hen House, Matt Taibi, 25 JAN
    Choice of Mary Jo White to Head SEC Puts Fox In Charge of Hen House | Matt Taibbi | Rolling Stone

    Ritholtz.com, An Open Letter to Mary Jo White, Josef Saluzzi, 25 JAN
    An Open Letter to Mary Jo White | The Big Picture


    This is but one part of a continent which the retail investor and trader may be excused for thinking of as terra incognita--is there any reason to expect that deals such as JP Morgan's recent coup in getting permission to purchase and securitize ("derivative-ize") physical copper will be a thing of the past?
    Respectfully submitted,
    Ellsworth
    PS--Doom-ster Marc Faber reminds us of something we already know: After Robert Shiller questioned the utility of gold, he replied, “I’m prepared to make a bet. You keep your US dollars, and I’ll keep my gold; we’ll see which one goes to zero first.” Made me smile! Foxes may guard the henhouse for now, but eventually, the truth will out.
    . Auguries - Two And Two Still Make Four | ResourcesWire.com exploration energy markets
    [COLOR="#008000"][FONT=Fixedsys][I]Looking Critically,Ellsworth

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    No quite the contrary I expect. The miners are very negatively correlated to SPX here, so we want equities to fall.
    Poly, I hope you are right....Miners have been slaughtered....is the Gold / XAU ratio indicating lower gold prices? Or higher miner prices?

    On one hand, we have Market Oracle, Market Anthropology, Spitz, Martin Armstrong and others calling for much lower Gold prices and on the other we have all cycle guys calling for the much awaited C wave. God, please awaken the Bull!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    No quite the contrary I expect. The miners are very negatively correlated to SPX here, so we want equities to fall.
    Lately I've been looking at the s&p/gold and here as well as dow/gold ratios to try to get some insight into why gold isn't moving up as we expected. The S&P/gold ratio is .91 today, well below it's average since '78, and not far from the .65 low in Aug. '11. So I'm not sure it's fair to argue that the S&P rising while gold isn't (at least right now) is somehow contrary to the rules of economics. Frankly, the "value" of the S&P stinks, at least in gold terms. And what other terms are there?

    The fact that many of us think equity prices are artificially high due to funny money and aren't sustainable seems to add insult to injury--especially when general equity prices rise and gold and miners don't. Funny money or not, at least for now, the stock mkt is artificially supported. But in gold terms, the mkt is still valued very low. Going forward, given the dismal state of the real economy and our massive political problems, I'm expecting the total equities market to provide an inflation-adjusted return worse than that of gold. But I don't think that's true every minute, and don't see why right now, equities can't outpace gold. After all, lots of people have drunk the Kool-Aid.

    I'm aware the focus here on the blog is on trading, and not as much on long-term investing, so nothing I've said really helps make money Monday. And the question of miners' performance is a whole other riddle. I suppose the double-whammy we thought we'd get with them being both equities and gold won't happen unless and until more people wake up and question the safety and reliability of the American economy. For now I suppose, the relative preference for equities over gold are holding the miners back.

    If we're headed towards a 1:1 Dow/gold situation, it's unclear to me if that's Dow 10,000:$Gold 10,000 or Dow 1000:$Gold 1000. Either way, an ounce of gold should hold it's purchasing power, and your wealth will be valued in how much and how many tangible things you have--gold ounces, land, food, etc. How that would be valued in paper currencies is a mystery that may not be worth solving.

    I think the S&P500/gold ratio is telling us that gold is still the superior investment, and that miners can't really fly, or even hold their value, until the market's perception of the general economy changes.Traders may fully understand and know the future, and how bad the economy will be, and how important gold will be to them sometime, but that's in the future and not today. For those of us that can't trade, there's really not much choice but to have some long gold positions and wait.
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    Besser tot als Rot.

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    Besser tot als Rot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    No quite the contrary I expect. The miners are very negatively correlated to SPX here, so we want equities to fall.
    @BBT in general following Poly's thoughts.

    Since it is the week-end, some guess work thoughts. For me clearly gold and silver are being held down. The reason I haven't a clue.

    A proposed thought....they are being delayed in their run, as hedgies sell their SPY shares as we break to new highs to buy gold. Retail guy is dying to dive in. Some mention already, but I am getting alot of the stock market is “hot buy now” type thing from friends (who are nitwits in stocks...and not to be mean, but if I ever gave advice to a doctor about his medical field I should be considered a nitwit too).

    My thesis is that the currency wars are well known to big investors right now, and since they cannot easily get out of positions, they don't want to park in them. There is some juice left in the general stock market. One of the things that the rockclimber suggested which holds very true in my books is that the bigger you are the more you need an event to sell into. The S&P breaking to new highs is a great opportunity to dump shares onto the obvious retail guy who is jumping all over this, although I believe the percentage is smaller as there are plenty of people burned twice that will never buy shares again.
    The thesis continues to say as the bigger players sell their general market shares, they wanted to buy something else other than currency. PMs come into place. It has been obvious to everyone since fall that equities were going to break to new highs, and the logic suggests that the bigger players would need a strategy to get out and into something else. Logically it also serves well.

    I for one cannot believe that QE can ever stop, for stated reasons. And the notion that 6.5% will be the basis for unemployment sounds so silly that it borders on absurd. The FED has stated that the unintended consequences of QE are unknown, but lowering the unemployment rate 1% now that is worth it. It’s like saying a family spent 5k to much in a given year, freaks out leverages the house, liquidates the college funds, and bets everything on 5 black. I have already stated the effect of interest on the Gov’s expenditures and the deficits which would follow. If rates rise, it’s an end game move. And I am not that smart, I can’t imagine that the “masters of the universe” are so stupid to believe that QE will end. It can’t; it can pause, but there is a zero percent chance of it not continuing.

    My apologies for the long post, but my thesis which is a guess, suggests the manipulation in gold is not done by the FED, but rather is being done by a couple big players. Perhaps they are taking turns, basically short gold and go long the general market. Trend followers do the same, which just adds to the herd. Once the market breaks to new highs, we are forced to believe that a) things in the world and the US are in the best shape that they have been in the history of modern civilization or b) we are over extended and it’s time to correct. At this point long gold short spy would take place. If I am correct, our linear way of looking at things may produce a mass rally in PM’s.

    Anyways thoughts for a week-end thread. Sharing thoughts with no real basis of support to be clear. Timeframe should be known quickly, since as we get closer to all-time highs, the more likely we will tag at the least all-time highs, which creates a vacuum on the guaranteed trade. After the break is the big question. Do we correct and find support or do we simply dump?
    .
    Last edited by Keys; 01-26-2013 at 10:59 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    The economy is fixed and a new Equity bull market has begun. Sell your bullion.
    Done. Thanks for memories.
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    Keys, It all makes sense to me. Has AAPL money shifted to GOOG?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob L View Post
    Done. Thanks for memories.
    Why can't I find a 4x QQQ fund?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shakey View Post
    Why can't I find a 4x QQQ fund?
    It's out there. It's called the TSX Venture - $CDNX on stock charts.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    No I don't hold those views. ALthough I will grant them that gold is still in a downtrend and has not shown us a new trend.
    Tend to be an eye opener in the morning, however. Will pass on the 2nd cup of coffee for awhile.

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    I'm one of the Gang Keys's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by At Ease View Post
    Keys, It all makes sense to me. Has AAPL money shifted to GOOG?
    I have no clue....

    AAPL was due to fall back in April of last year as it went semi-parabolic. Weirdiest break I have ever seen, but a break none the less. Also in my view Apple has lost some of its fundy support. I have a buddy in the retail industry in cell phones/internet/general communications, and I should have listened to him. But he was showing how easily it was to hack into any Apple cell phone remotely from another computer, and how Samsung was taking market share because it was a better product. Not investable information I guess, but it is the opinion of his company that Samsung is better than Apple for a multipule of reasons. I am sure there is a value trade in Apple at some point, but I won't be buying here(and of course I could be wrong).

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    A lesson on not procrastinating: it is a BEAUTIFUL (even by SW FL standards) day here. The wind is a little light, but otherwise totally a day to go sailing.

    BUT, I still have not repaired the fuel line leak, replaced the cracked battery, or repacked the stuffing box (well, to be honest, the mechanic is doing 1 and 3, I'm only capable of #2, but with all this travel, I did take 2 weeks to call him). So, I guess I'll be doing something other than taking the boat out.
    “We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be.” ― Kurt Vonnegut, Mother Night

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    Hamvestor, noted your query yesterday about SAND. You can find a number of articles re SAND in Seeking Alpha. Some would agree that it is (was) overvalued, but it is very price resilient when negative PM miner market pressure relieves relative to other mining stocks, and it is continuously adding streaming royalties.
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    It was good while it lasted.

    Long NFLX
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    My Weekend report published. I will check in as much as possible today, but I wish everybody an excellent weekend.

    A Higher Plateau | The Financial Tap
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    just a note, looking back at the Jan 2012 move Gold actually corrected approx $40 twice within a few days of eachother around these same levels after a strong start before it broke thru the IC.....just an FYI

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    Keys, Have heard the same. Apple makes a nice product, however so do others. So it was just a matter of time before they priced themselves out. Those who own, have and those who can't buy others and those who are looking, look for best deal.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    The economy is fixed and a new Equity bull market has begun. Sell your bullion.
    Not only is the economy fixed, but, as anyone tuned into CNBC knows, there is also a shortage of homes for sale. All bank-owned homes...suddenly gone. Pooof! And the wealth effect from rising home values will support stocks.
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    Interesting quote from a post elsewhere:


    “From an emotional point of view, it is usually most difficult to buy into the most prolonged downtrends, and it is most difficult to sell into the most extended rallies. It has been proven in many psychological studies that if there is a brief, sharp plunge in the financial markets, far more investors can handle such a situation as compared with a protracted period of declines, even if the latter situation results in a smaller loss of real money. When stock markets worldwide collapsed by huge percentages in September through November 2008, even inexperienced amateurs generally were able to avoid the temptation to sell near the bottom on November 20. However, in 2009 as the markets declined much less in percentage terms, they did so relentlessly for weeks, thereby causing huge withdrawals from equity funds especially in February and March. Sharp, intense financial pain is thus less likely to cause a behavioral change than persistent, grinding losses. As humans, we can handle short-term panic but we can’t deal with long-term despondency. As a result, I generally favor buying an asset which has been relentlessly pressing lower than one which had been in an uptrend and has recently plummeted. Something which is in an extended downtrend will have had plenty of time to shake out nearly all amateurs and other uncommitted holders, while giving top corporate insiders ample time to add to their holdings.”

    Steven Jon Kaplan

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    Gold Weekly

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    Last edited by Rob L; 01-26-2013 at 02:06 PM.
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    This analyst's interesting commentary includes an update on Wilshire 5000 & gold

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob L View Post
    FYI:
    Musings on Markets: Macro Analysis 1/25/2013

    Respectfully submitted,
    Ellsworth
    [COLOR="#008000"][FONT=Fixedsys][I]Looking Critically,Ellsworth

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    Fake Outs

    I've been onboard for all of the following. I must be crazy but here I go again and this time the stakes are higher. Does anyone believe it has one more run left in her?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bug View Post
    Interesting quote from a post elsewhere:


    “From an emotional point of view, it is usually most difficult to buy into the most prolonged downtrends, and it is most difficult to sell into the most extended rallies. It has been proven in many psychological studies that if there is a brief, sharp plunge in the financial markets, far more investors can handle such a situation as compared with a protracted period of declines, even if the latter situation results in a smaller loss of real money. When stock markets worldwide collapsed by huge percentages in September through November 2008, even inexperienced amateurs generally were able to avoid the temptation to sell near the bottom on November 20. However, in 2009 as the markets declined much less in percentage terms, they did so relentlessly for weeks, thereby causing huge withdrawals from equity funds especially in February and March. Sharp, intense financial pain is thus less likely to cause a behavioral change than persistent, grinding losses. As humans, we can handle short-term panic but we can’t deal with long-term despondency. As a result, I generally favor buying an asset which has been relentlessly pressing lower than one which had been in an uptrend and has recently plummeted. Something which is in an extended downtrend will have had plenty of time to shake out nearly all amateurs and other uncommitted holders, while giving top corporate insiders ample time to add to their holdings.”

    Steven Jon Kaplan
    Of course, the flip side is, you might be sinking your money into a value trap. You know, "Bargains that stay bargains aren't really bargains."

    All I know is if the PM bull ever comes back to life, those long silver and gold will do just fine. Those holding miners.....well, they'll probably be fine. But if you insist on extra juice, why not go for AGQ or use futures or leverage the metals some other way?

    And if you insist on buying miners, why not wait until they outperform metals for a stretch longer than a couple days or weeks? If the gains in store are that massive, you aren't going to miss much by waiting.
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    I'm part of the BBT furniture JHNewman's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Catfish View Post
    I've been onboard for all of the following. I must be crazy but here I go again and this time the stakes are higher. Does anyone believe it has one more run left in her?



    Yeah, me. Long-term, has at least 2 runs left in her.

    BUT -- I haven't been playing the miners on the long side lately, nor do I intend to. Silver/USLV is my horse for now. And on the short side in the future, possibly DUST.
    Last edited by JHNewman; 01-26-2013 at 04:37 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    The economy is fixed and a new Equity bull market has begun. Sell your bullion.
    From 2003 to early 2007 the gold bull was alive and well against the backdrop of an economy that appeared to be just fine. Yeah, gold can catch a bid as a fear trade, as a "vote of no confidence" trade, but the dominant factor behind the long gold trade--since the run began in 2001--has been currency debasement.

    I actually mused to Gary yesterday that hey, maybe the reason gold has been poorly bid is that big money honestly does believe stocks are the place to be because they really do see a world economy (or at least a US economy) that is coming back for real. And then he reminded me gold did just fine circa 2003-2007.
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    Quote Originally Posted by spitz View Post
    Hard to believe I know, but this S&P rally is still not over. I got a (very reliable) "topping signal ignored" signal on Friday. It means we should see about 3 more days up before any pullback. When we do get the pullback it should be the wave 4 down of 5, then the wave 5 top on about Feb 4 with the Ceres/Uranus/Saturn Golden Triangle.
    spitz, please keep us informed. Used to be that traders could count on Monday down, Tuesday up, or vice versa. This rally has torn the daylights out of some of their timing. Glad to have Tony and You around!

    Also, saw this on previous thread. Hope I can live up to expectations.

    "I think this forum is kind of dangerous in that most people are holding the same view and there is little alternative discussion. As I always say, it is healthy to look at both sides. I have been one of the few here trying to warn you guys metals were topping. Of course our Bunnyfish too but she has been away. And Neo and MrM, probably a few others I missed. This is why I'm very glad that Melinda has joined us. We need more alternative views and healthy discourse. When something is not working for me (like my silver short last week and then my gold long this week) I usually try to take a break from it and concentrate on something else. As Melinda has mentioned, Tony Caldero has been just outstanding calling the SPX. Check out his site. Let's make money."

    Melinda
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yo View Post
    Not only is the economy fixed, but, as anyone tuned into CNBC knows, there is also a shortage of homes for sale. All bank-owned homes...suddenly gone. Pooof! And the wealth effect from rising home values will support stocks.
    With great respect, and IMO, I ask you to be very careful here! The Equity Bull has been going since 2009 and has about a year or so left in it. (See Tony Caldaro's website.) If you're going to sell your bullion, at least wait for a bounce, or for stocks to correct. Please take care.

    Regarding tuning into CNBC for reports on the shortage of homes, etc., I hope you're joking. CNBC can be as clueless as the next person working at a fast food joint. Home values will not support stocks; The Fed has been the main support for stocks. There is no shortage of homes, just a shortage of NEW homes. Home construction is active over most of the country. Do not depend upon one segment of the economy (again) to support stocks (again), or anything else for that matter.

    Keep in mind that there was more than the usual discourse in the last FOMC Minutes over the continuance of QE. This is not to say that Ben will stop QE, in fact, he won't, until he leaves office. However, there's growing negativity from other Governors and as stocks have now hit 1500+, there are less reasons (excuses) to continue liquidity injections at this rate. IMO, Bernanke will continue QE until he's been able to chase as many investors as possible out of govt issued securities. Don't know how long this will take.

    If you're interested in equities, the only and best guidance you can get (and it's free) is:

    the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on | OEW: an Objective approach to the Elliott Wave Theory

    The Best of Everything to You All!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    The economy is fixed and a new Equity bull market has begun. Sell your bullion.
    Part of my post above was also regarding what Poly is saying.

    Melinda
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    Yes.
    Whew! Yes to being sarcastic. Poly, you scared me! LOL! Not funny, but....geez.

    Melinda
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    I'm part of the BBT furniture SeattleSun's Avatar

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    Ray Dalio sees Game Chagers as Money Shifts

    A lot of BS to sit thru for Rays few comments but he appears to think money will start to flow into risk assets in 2013.

    Anyone have a good site for bonds discussions? Need a drive by from Jeff.


    Again: my goal is to identify the end of the Great Bond Bull that started in 1981.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ml]Bridgewater


    Last edited by SeattleSun; 01-26-2013 at 06:39 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by catbird View Post
    Of course, the flip side is, you might be sinking your money into a value trap. You know, "Bargains that stay bargains aren't really bargains."

    All I know is if the PM bull ever comes back to life, those long silver and gold will do just fine. Those holding miners.....well, they'll probably be fine. But if you insist on extra juice, why not go for AGQ or use futures or leverage the metals some other way?

    And if you insist on buying miners, why not wait until they outperform metals for a stretch longer than a couple days or weeks? If the gains in store are that massive, you aren't going to miss much by waiting.
    Gold miners are priced for $750 gold. Buying them today represents a 60% discount. This is what Ben Graham called the "margin of safety".

    Buying gold today represents paying full price.

    The truth is that gold at $1650 is by no means cheap. It has already tagged its all-time inflation-adjusted high in 2011. It was cheap at $250, when nobody wanted it and everybody said it was going to $50. It is not cheap now.

    It is safer by far to own miners at a 60% discount today than gold itself, let alone a leveraged ETF.

    ***

    This next part is not directed at you, Catbird, but it's clear that we've reached one of those very special moments in market history when you realize that most market participants don't really understand what a stock is.

    For instance, I have recently seen several people pointing out a dreaded "head and shoulders" formation that indicates the $HUI could go to 150.

    Let's remind ourselves of what a stock is. A stock is a fractional share in a company. It's not just a line on a chart or a number on a screen. It's a machine for making money. Unlike a rock or mineral, a company actually generates value on an ongoing basis.

    Let's take Barrick Gold (a company I neither own nor like) as an example. Right now it is trading at roughly 5X 2013 earnings, based on $1650 gold. If the $HUI goes to 150, we could assume that Barrick would be trading at 1.5X earnings. At that rate, the company could buy up its entire float in 18 months. It would be forced to, because otherwise private equity would simply step in and take the company out.

    At that point, the remaining handful of shareholders -- mostly management -- would be entitled to Barrick's entire $3 billion in annual profits.

    Perhaps this is why insiders at gold and silver miners are buying right now? Because they know that at 5X earnings, share buybacks are a given? Because the company itself will backstop their investment?

    Right now, people selling shares in gold miners are literally operating on superstition alone. They see the dreaded head-and-shoulders cave painting on their wall and roll their eyes in fear and trembling. The stocks are going to zero!

    Uh, why? Seriously, why? How?

    I can make a case for $750 gold or $250 gold, easy, but I can't make a case for HUI 150 when gold is at $1650.

    I also can't make a case for miners staying where they are now.

    The last time they were this cheap was in 2008. Just to give you a sense of context, in 2008, these companies were literally on the verge of extinction. They couldn't roll over their debt because of the credit crisis. As a result, I would routinely wake up in October 2008 to see a stock I owned like NovaGold down 30% because management had just been forced to issue shares just to stay in business. SLW was priced at $2.50 because it was on the verge of going out of business.

    Now we have the same state of abject panic, because... uh... wait... remind me again?

    These companies aren't going out of business. They are making money, all of them. And yet they are priced for bankruptcy, just like 2008.

    And, of course, everyone's terrified of them. Terrified to own them, just as they were terrified to own equities in summer 2011 just because they were going down for no reason at all.

    If you were an idiot, you sold your equities in summer 2011 because they were going down (and because the dreaded cave paintings told you they were going to zero). Now the cave paintings and the head-and-shoulder gods are telling you to sell your miners and buy back the equities you puked up in summer 2011 -- at twice the price. What are you going to do?
    Last edited by Bug; 01-26-2013 at 07:38 PM.
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    BBT Aficionado spitz's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bug View Post
    If you were an idiot, you sold your equities in summer 2011 because they were going down (and because the dreaded cave paintings told you they were going to zero). Now the cave paintings and the head-and-shoulder gods are telling you to sell your miners and buy back the equities you puked up in summer 2011 -- at twice the price. What are you going to do?
    This is why I love futures so much. A 10 point move pays the same for the same investment no matter what the price.

    As for your question, I'll be picking me some equities on Monday, because I understand them. I don't understand miners. But that's just me I guess.
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    The planets, an egg and Erik Sven's meatballs tell me how to trade so you sure as heck don't want to follow me either.

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    I'm part of the BBT furniture SeattleSun's Avatar

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    Gold Coppock Indicator for Gold Updated to 1/25/`3

    The updated Coppock Indicator for gold is shown below. It has not formed a trough yet, and no buy signal so far, but the year-over-year rolling return percentage change expressed in standard deviation terms seems to indicate an oversold condition - Georg Vrba






    Here is some back ground on the Coppock Indicator in case your not familiar with it Coppock curve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    I have never seen the Coppock Indicator used with gold before and I note the caution in the Wike write up of "It's not regarded as well-suited to commodity markets, since bottoms there are more rounded than the spike lows found in stocks." Of course you would need to regard gold as a "commodity" to heed that warning.

    Perhaps The Landlord would comment on the coppock indicator.

    SS
    Last edited by SeattleSun; 01-26-2013 at 09:18 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by spitz View Post

    As for your question, I'll be picking me some equities on Monday, because I understand them. I don't understand miners. But that's just me I guess.
    Miners are equities.

    It's the simplest business on Earth. They pull rocks out of the ground and sell them.
    Last edited by Bug; 01-26-2013 at 08:02 PM.
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    BBT Aficionado spitz's Avatar

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    Jan 30, FOMC statement. That'll be the "cause" of the S&P drop next Wednesday.
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    The planets, an egg and Erik Sven's meatballs tell me how to trade so you sure as heck don't want to follow me either.

    There are 4 seas (mare in Latin) with colors as their names: Black, White, Red and Yellow.
    Sochi Russia (Olympics), Ukraine, and Crimea all border the Black Sea, or dark horse.

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    I'm part of the BBT furniture SeattleSun's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    The economy is fixed and a new Equity bull market has begun. Sell your bullion.

    There are an infinate number of fundamental reasons I could state that say your wrong.

    But there is a possibility that the Gold to Dow ratio bottomed in 2011 at 6. I was looking for a lower single digit bottom but perhaps the world's central banks are winning.

    Of coure my big hope is the US House of Representatives will come to my rescue with some American Austarity. Then again perhaps higher taxes by Obama is a better bet? Or a combination of both to lower the DOW. Or should I be hoping for higher gold with a N. Korea explosiion?


    DOW to Gold Ratio Monthly last 13 years from recent top in the 40's.




    DOW to Gold Ratio Monthly since 1900
    Last edited by SeattleSun; 01-26-2013 at 09:11 PM.
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    So shouldn't we be long miners and short gold in a pair trade?

    Perfect contrarian setup with a value backstop.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleSun View Post
    Ray Dalio sees Game Chagers as Money Shifts

    A lot of BS to sit thru for Rays few comments but he appears to think money will start to flow into risk assets in 2013.

    Anyone have a good site for bonds discussions? Need a drive by from Jeff.


    Again: my goal is to identify the end of the Great Bond Bull that started in 1981.
    You and me both! I want to know if/when money starts to come out of bonds in a big way; not the dribble that's been happening. Then again, this might be the way that money will move over time. Might not be a big slam of a rotation. Who knows? Not me...

    Melinda
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    Quote Originally Posted by spitz View Post
    Jan 30, FOMC statement. That'll be the "cause" of the S&P drop next Wednesday.
    Hi spitz. You really think so? How big a drop do you think? The timeframe would suggest not more than 10 points.

    Melinda
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    Bug
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy Sales View Post
    So shouldn't we be long miners and short gold in a pair trade?

    Perfect contrarian setup with a value backstop.
    Not a bad idea.

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    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    Looking at the Gold to XAU ratio, the trade should just be long GDX and short Gold.
    "Until we see what we are, we cannot take steps to become what we should be" ~ Charlotte P. Gilman

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    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy Sales View Post
    So shouldn't we be long miners and short gold in a pair trade?

    Perfect contrarian setup with a value backstop.
    Too funny. You had beat me to the post. This wasn't there when I started reading the stream. You're perfectly correctly, with that ratio all you would care about is GDX beating gold, down or up.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleSun View Post
    There are an infinate number of fundamental reasons I could state that say your wrong.

    But there is a possibility that the Gold to Dow ratio bottomed in 2011 at 6. I was looking for a lower single digit bottom but perhaps the world's central banks are winning.

    Of coure my big hope is the US House of Representatives will come to my rescue with some American Austarity. Then again perhaps higher taxes by Obama is a better bet? Or a combination of both to lower the DOW. Or should I be hoping for higher gold with a N. Korea explosiion?


    DOW to Gold Ratio Monthly last 13 years from recent top in the 40's.




    DOW to Gold Ratio Monthly since 1900
    OK obviously I was being sarcastic.
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    Quote Originally Posted by catbird View Post
    From 2003 to early 2007 the gold bull was alive and well against the backdrop of an economy that appeared to be just fine. Yeah, gold can catch a bid as a fear trade, as a "vote of no confidence" trade, but the dominant factor behind the long gold trade--since the run began in 2001--has been currency debasement.

    I actually mused to Gary yesterday that hey, maybe the reason gold has been poorly bid is that big money honestly does believe stocks are the place to be because they really do see a world economy (or at least a US economy) that is coming back for real. And then he reminded me gold did just fine circa 2003-2007.
    Gold has done just fine recently too. Still not a single negative year and a massive 2009-2010 and 2011. This is a brief period of negative correlation but I don't think its much more than that.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Melinda View Post
    Hi spitz. You really think so? How big a drop do you think? The timeframe would suggest not more than 10 points.

    Melinda

    S&P 500 Snapshot: The Eighth Consecutive Interim High By Doug Short
    January 25, 2013


    The S&P 500 has moved higher for eight days in a row. Eight straight days of gains for any of the major stock market indexes are generally bullish for the market no matter what the other indicators say. The eight straight days also show that the rally which started with them has probably not yet reached a mid-point.


    Last edited by SeattleSun; 01-26-2013 at 09:32 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bug View Post
    Interesting quote from a post elsewhere:


    “From an emotional point of view, it is usually most difficult to buy into the most prolonged downtrends, and it is most difficult to sell into the most extended rallies. It has been proven in many psychological studies that if there is a brief, sharp plunge in the financial markets, far more investors can handle such a situation as compared with a protracted period of declines, even if the latter situation results in a smaller loss of real money. When stock markets worldwide collapsed by huge percentages in September through November 2008, even inexperienced amateurs generally were able to avoid the temptation to sell near the bottom on November 20. However, in 2009 as the markets declined much less in percentage terms, they did so relentlessly for weeks, thereby causing huge withdrawals from equity funds especially in February and March. Sharp, intense financial pain is thus less likely to cause a behavioral change than persistent, grinding losses. As humans, we can handle short-term panic but we can’t deal with long-term despondency. As a result, I generally favor buying an asset which has been relentlessly pressing lower than one which had been in an uptrend and has recently plummeted. Something which is in an extended downtrend will have had plenty of time to shake out nearly all amateurs and other uncommitted holders, while giving top corporate insiders ample time to add to their holdings.”

    Steven Jon Kaplan
    Great quote. It's this type of market that Equities have not experienced yet. These grinding bears are what normally clear an entire generation. 2008/09 was painful, but it wasn't prolonged. A long 2-3 year bear market here would utterly destroy investors and keep them out for another 15 years.
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    I'm part of the BBT furniture SeattleSun's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    OK obviously I was being sarcastic.
    Yes I know but I am NOT.

    PS - I bought all my bullion under $300/oz over 12 years ago, so I am getting antcy.
    Last edited by SeattleSun; 01-26-2013 at 09:37 PM.
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    BBT Aficionado spitz's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Melinda View Post
    Hi spitz. You really think so? How big a drop do you think? The timeframe would suggest not more than 10 points.

    Melinda
    I'm terrible with price but Tony is looking for up to 40 points pull back for wave 4. That is, if Jan 30 turns out to be the top of wave 3.
    The planets, an egg and Erik Sven's meatballs tell me how to trade so you sure as heck don't want to follow me either.

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    BBT Aficionado spitz's Avatar

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    Merriman:
    On January 30, the largest planet of our solar system will turn from retrograde to direct motion. On the same day, the Sun will form a square aspect to Saturn, which symbolically annoys the big guy.” When markets move up into such Jupiter transits, it oftentimes marks a pause or reversal. This could be the case now too, since the parabolic rate of motion up for many of these markets is not sustainable.

    Perfect!

    Also:
    The damage was even greater in Gold, which fell from 1695.90 on Tuesday, January 22, to a low of 1655 on Friday. It has more to go before meeting our target for the “Trade of the Year.”

    Last edited by spitz; 01-26-2013 at 10:34 PM.
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    The planets, an egg and Erik Sven's meatballs tell me how to trade so you sure as heck don't want to follow me either.

    There are 4 seas (mare in Latin) with colors as their names: Black, White, Red and Yellow.
    Sochi Russia (Olympics), Ukraine, and Crimea all border the Black Sea, or dark horse.

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    Poly: How abt a couple of pics? You with the Family! We have had snaps of the Silver contest winners, now need a snap of the Blog Owner!

    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    I've been there in the past, we learn the hard way. If you're trading the market, might as well try and trade it long, you would at least have the dominant trend behind you.

    Yes 5 yr old gymnastics and the Ice skating. The 8 yr old has Ice Hockey late in the afternoon. Coming off a 4 hour Friday night sleep makes it a long, but yes very rewarding day.
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    The gold and silver streamers are the best performing sub class in the metal complex. That should tell you something about the way miners are managed. SLW has less than 40 employees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!

    I am tired of all the foreplay. Judgment day can't come soon enough. I'm not getting any younger.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    The gold and silver streamers are the best performing sub class in the metal complex. That should tell you something about the way miners are managed. SLW has less than 40 employees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!
    Why does it matter that SLW has less than 40 employees?

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    Last edited by Catfish; 01-27-2013 at 07:48 AM.
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    A good Sunday to all BBT visitors

    Bug, you look more than terrific again.

    My XGLD weekly outlook. Do the math please FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free.

    I´m not in the EW camp followers. I followed Tony Caldero´s utterances (on Neo´s advice at those times), nearly day by day, from Nov-2010 to Dec-2011. Summa summarum: a very disappointing outcome and I´m glad I didn´t follow his deflationary forecast on the S&P for 2012.

    I´m particularly not in the Robert Prechter´s deflationist camp. One friend of mine (former banker), a strong believer of Prechter´s EW principles and his financial forecast, moved completely out of its physical gold savings at the end of 2008 and bought a farm in the north of Germany, in the middle of nowhere. He was waiting for "the end of the world". Too early... Today you get the farm for less than 2008. His family is stuck there, as I call "in the pampa", and he is working back in Hamburg to maintain the 2008 purchased derelict barns.

    I fully recommend this French "breath of air" with a sane evaluation on the actual situation from Jean-Marie Eveillard. No sensationalism, he always tries to portray the actual sentiment view http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor...Eveillard.html

    P.S. As Jean-Marie I share the same view on the markets and we both have the same accent
    Last edited by Mickette; 01-27-2013 at 09:26 AM.
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    Good morning Mickette. Your risk taking Looskit is off to the Horseshoe in Cleveland OH in search of riches. LOL. Can't do any worse than with my stock market gambling !

    P.S. Bug indeed is looking mighty fine again
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mickette View Post

    I fully recommend this French "breath of air" with a sane evaluation on the actual situation from Jean-Marie Eveillard. No sensationalism, he always tries to portray the actual sentiment view Jean-Marie Eveillard

    P.S. As Jean-Marie I share the same view on the markets and we both have the same accent
    I have always liked Jean-Marie's interviews. He is one sharp guy. I like the accent too, although it initially took me a few minutes to be able to effortlessly understand what he is saying.
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    BBT Aficionado spitz's Avatar

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    I deleted my S&P roadmap. Upon further review, SPX is giving clear topping signals, so a pull back (wave 4 down) is due here. Then it should continue up.
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    The planets, an egg and Erik Sven's meatballs tell me how to trade so you sure as heck don't want to follow me either.

    There are 4 seas (mare in Latin) with colors as their names: Black, White, Red and Yellow.
    Sochi Russia (Olympics), Ukraine, and Crimea all border the Black Sea, or dark horse.

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    Get your hard hats on for next week (unless you are in equities). FOMC Tuesday and Wednesday and jobs on Friday.

    We all know how PM's love FOMC days
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    Quote Originally Posted by SF Giants Fan View Post
    Get your hard hats on for next week (unless you are in equities). FOMC Tuesday and Wednesday and jobs on Friday.

    We all know how PM's love FOMC days

    this week could be the exemption that confirms the rule... A BIT OF OPTIMISM from everybody PLEEEEEEEAAAAASEEEEEEE
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bug View Post
    Now we have the same state of abject panic, because... uh... wait... remind me again?
    It's a shame I can't like a post more than once.
    Bug likes this.
    “We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be.” ― Kurt Vonnegut, Mother Night

  76. #76
    William Wallace Honorary Club SF Giants Fan's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sophia View Post
    this week could be the exemption that confirms the rule... A BIT OF OPTIMISM from everybody PLEEEEEEEAAAAASEEEEEEE
    Here is your optimism :-).

    Sophia, Persephone, Tiger5 and 2 others like this.

  77. #77
    BBT Aficionado MikeS's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by spitz View Post
    I deleted my S&P roadmap. Upon further review, SPX is giving clear topping signals, so a pull back (wave 4 down) is due here. Then it should continue up.
    well that didnt take long

  78. #78
    BBT Aficionado spitz's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS View Post
    well that didnt take long
    We should always be critical of our own analysis and willing to change our positions.
    Shakey, KAL, Sophia and 8 others like this.
    The planets, an egg and Erik Sven's meatballs tell me how to trade so you sure as heck don't want to follow me either.

    There are 4 seas (mare in Latin) with colors as their names: Black, White, Red and Yellow.
    Sochi Russia (Olympics), Ukraine, and Crimea all border the Black Sea, or dark horse.

  79. #79
    BBT Aficionado MikeS's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by spitz View Post
    We should always be critical of our own analysis and willing to change our positions.
    question for you....its still possible that your May date for Gold could be a high correct?

  80. #80
    I never sleep! Rob L's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mickette View Post
    A good Sunday to all BBT visitors

    P.S. As Jean-Marie I share the same view on the markets and we both have the same accent
    Your voice is MUCH deeper than I thought it would be.
    Persephone, Mickette, Bug and 1 others like this.
    "What if everything is an illusion and nothing exists? In that case, I definitely overpaid for my carpet."

    -Woody Allen

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