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About LinkBacksNothing intelligent to say, so I went to old reliable and mentioned the Fed. I'm thinking we get a nice opportunity to add tomorrow (Wednesday) as gold loves to drop sharply simultaneously with Bernanke speaking. Almost never fails.
This is a discussion on Tuesday, June 19 - Waiting on the Fed within the The Lounge forums, part of the Bull Bear Talk Forums category; Nothing intelligent to say, so I went to old reliable and mentioned the Fed. I'm thinking we get a nice ...
Nothing intelligent to say, so I went to old reliable and mentioned the Fed. I'm thinking we get a nice opportunity to add tomorrow (Wednesday) as gold loves to drop sharply simultaneously with Bernanke speaking. Almost never fails.
Last edited by catbird; 06-19-2012 at 12:20 AM.
Probably this time it won't...
The rest here
I am surprised "love" isn't on the list. $100/hr or is it $33.3/squirt?
Miyagi,Originally Posted by MrMiyagi
What I have learned over the last year or so is to expect the unexpected. We are now waiting for the price of gold to drop when BB speaks. I think you might be on to something " 'ole wise-one with green shoe laces, standing on mars but says it's Sedona."
TZ at the other blog paraphrased 'someone' with regards to 'something' about "the markets job is to inflict the most pain to the most amount of people." I don't know about you, but I've had my nuggets kicked a ton this past year. I haven't walked upright since April 2011.
Last edited by Rob L; 06-19-2012 at 12:59 AM.
"What if everything is an illusion and nothing exists? In that case, I definitely overpaid for my carpet."
-Woody Allen
Do you live in Bangkok?
"What if everything is an illusion and nothing exists? In that case, I definitely overpaid for my carpet."
-Woody Allen
Interesting comments from Armstrong's latest article.
If hyperinflation occurs than he argues that the "reserve currency" will be the last to enter hyperinflation.The dollar cannot move into HYPERINFLATION for it is the RESERVE CURRENCY that would bring everything down with it. The value of the dollar will certainly decline against assets, but it will not move into HYPERINFLATION. World War III would breakout long before that. Capital cannot simply flee to yuan, Brazil or any other place, because if the RESERVE CURRENCY goes, so does everything else. China’s reserves would vanish overnight
Armstrong uses fringe to mean small economies whose economies are destroyed like Zimbabwe or Weimar and not large central economies like Historic Rome or the British Empire. Thinking about this - this is what those of us who are buying gold to "store wealth" are effectively doing. They are removing the money supply out of circulation and thereby reducing the velocity of money and increasing the deflationary pressures. And this is also what is happening in Greece and lesser degree Spain with the bank runs. This forces government and central banks to increase liquidity to counter the increasing deflationary pressures , though unless the US economy is effectively destroyed there will always be demand for currency and hyperinflation will be unlikely. That said, gold and commodities can continue to do well as government deficit spending coupled with low interest rate continues to debase the currency.Empires do not die by HYPERINFLATION – that is reserved for the fringe. When an empire dies, it historically has ALWAYS been by DEFLATION. How? Real wealth is driven from the ABOVEGROUND economy into the UNDERGROUND economy where it is hoarded and tucked away. This is why we find hoards of Roman coins. This reduces the VELOCITY of money and commerce is reduced.
Mr Lowe.
I don't know much but I can tell you that here unemployment is quite evident. Unemployment is high in a LOT of places. Restaurants are busy (I would not say full as was said on another blog) but people spend like idiots in any economy.
I can't be optimistic of the markets aside from election pumping driving, or at the very least maintaining it. Bounces I find are technical from oversold levels then latecomers pile in before it turns around. This seems to be happening in faster than it used to, swings are wilder and quicker. I don't feel confident holding long stocks aside from miners and short ETFs. I am a bit underwater on some TNA but at least I know enough to sell calls and average down and eventually get rid of that.
Maybe I am dead wrong and people just don't want to work; who wants to earn money, right? Maybe I have no clue and should just sell everything and go work at one of the plentiful jobs that pay more than 8$ an hour. Perhaps in Ireland or Spain or Greece for a change of scenery.
Maybe I should go to bed..
It was Mars.. you got me!
Economic Data Being Released Tuesday.
May housing starts at 10AM. Consensus for 720,000 SAAR from 717,000.
4 week Treasury bill auctions at 11:30AM.
Crap. Vacation is over. Back to the grind ;-(
hmmmm, interesting, I think my wife is standing on place 1
now you know the reason i'm on this forum
ok, positions checked and see, she's very close, just a matter of anti
Metals, especially Silver, continue to coil in a very narrow range. I'm personally watching for a sharp break lower (DCL) out of the coil, only to be quickly reversed in a lockout 10 day move. I'm seeing a possible very quick move to $1,740 and $34
Poly, do you plan to trade any of your positions in light of this view or are you going to hold through any short-term drawdown? thanks
Good day to everyone!
Next target for the euro currency. After that reversal trend.
EURUSD(hourly)20120619140913 - Mickette's library
Miners continue to impress. What a difference from the pain we all have gone thru lately. I am curious, and hoping to learn from all the sages here. What do you rely on most for indicators. Take a look at the attached, you'll see several I have been using. I would like to get some feedback from the group on indicators. Besides, technical trend lines, and MA's.
2012-06-19_0837 - wchowe's library
"Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils."-- (Louis) Hector Berlioz
I typically always hold through the 1st DCL because its generally the shortest in duration and the move out of that DCL is often sharp. It's easy to get caught position-less out of the 1st DCL.
Getting close to buying me some OIL. Who likes UCO at these numbers? Indicators are trending up, MACD crossover. Almost down to 1 year low.
2012-06-19_0913 - wchowe's library
"Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils."-- (Louis) Hector Berlioz
Poly... I hope yours plays out. I really don't want to see Silver goes under $26 again... it'll be ugly!
Kimble Charting Solutions Blog » Is Silver forming a large bearish descending triangle pattern?
Not sure what kind of hold period you're looking at but bought some XLE yesterday--seems to do better than UCO (unless you're talking about just a trade)
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
Wow. From Vietnam. Haven't seen that before. Would love to visit there.
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
I'd like to ask Armstrong how he proposes the US govt will pay for its huge deficits when deflation hits. If the economy takes a nosedive this would imply a nosedive in tax revenues. Does he expect them to actually cut spending when Keynsian thinking rules our monetary and fiscal policies? I believe the govt prints till it runs out of zeros and HI ensues. Reserve currencies have fallen over history and the USD will be no different. Personally I believe the EURO will be the next reserve currency despite all the sensationalism emnating from the financial media.
My experience: Kimble is not always right.
Chris Kimble has never published critical comments pointing out his own error in reasoning.
Ha ha ha....LOL Now your avatar is "Alka Seltzer" after the array of gastronomic indulgences this past week. Very clever, fella!
Poly,
For those of us (actually just me) who accidentally exited all of the NUGT (didn't read the whole message) a few weeks ago, when do you see a good time to re-enter? If there isn't a good time, I will just sit tight with what I have.
Hi Pluto!
I share the same point of view. A slimmed Euro and stronger as was the DM in the past.
Thought this might be interesting and topical. Here is the FOMC 2011/12 Schedule & Short-term PM Performance thereafter:
Jun 22, 2011: Gold peaked at $1,558, dropped to $1,479 in next 7 days, -$79 or -5%; Silver peaked at $36.78, dropped to $34.33 in next 3 days, -$2.45 or -7%;
Aug 9, 2011: Gold peaked at $1,780, dropped to $1,724 in next 3 days, -$56 or -3%; Silver peaked at $39.51, dropped to $37.57 that da, -$1.94 or -5%;
Sept 21, 2011: Gold peaked at $1,817, dropped to $1,533 in next 3 days, -$284 or -16%; Silver peaked at $40.69, dropped to $26.09 in 3 days, -$14.60 or -36%
November 2, 2011: Gold and silver rallied after this meeting;
November 28, 2011: Gold and silver rallied after this meeting;
December 12, 2011: Gold peaked at $1,715, dropped to $1,563 in next 3 days, -$152 or -9%; Silver peaked at $32.25, dropped to $28.18 in 3 days, -$4.07
or -13%;
January 25, 2012: Gold and silver rallied after this meeting;
March 13, 2012: Gold peaked at $1,706, dropped to $1,634 next day, -$72 or -4%; Silver peaked at $33.82, dropped to $31.64 next day, -$2.18 or -6%;
April 25, 2012: Gold peaked at $1,646, rallied for 4 days to $1,671 and then dropped to $1,527 over next 12 days, -$144 or -9%; Silver peaked at $31.00, rallied for 3 days to $31.41 and then dropped to $26.79 over next 12 days, -$4.62 or -15%;
June 20, 2012: TBC
If we now are moving down into an DCL I guess it has to arrive below gold $1556, were we had the half cycle low. The DCL should be the lowest point after the highest point of the daily cycle. And now without a new daily cycle high in its second part, I guess we need a touch below $1556?
Yes, it's possible, if the only similarity btwn the "new" Euro and the old Euro is the name.
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
He is of the opinion that the reserve currency will go the way of the Roman currency or British Sterling where the government debase their currency but the end game is a debt crisis rather than hyperinflation. His comment is that not one "major" currency has hyperinflated (many fringe currencies have) but many reserve and major currencies have fallen in importance over time. And I'm not sure he means outright "deflation" like the 30s (and if so I don't agree fully). I believe he means an economy that moves into and out of price inflation/deflation (inflation as the government spends and deflation or low inflation as the economy slow down). He is in the debt crisis camp (rather than currency collapse) because what he observes from Romans and other major power is a debt crisis where capital moves from public assets (treasuries) to private assets (equity, commodity, real estate, gold etc) because of a loss in confidence in public debt/government. This maybe what is starting to happen in Europe, though many are moving into US treasuries. But at some point, this will impact the US and force the central banks to raise interest rates and undertake austerity to save the currency from hyperinflation and at the expense of banks, corporations and citizens (i.e no further bailouts and possible defaults on debt). That is, if push comes to shove, the government will choose to save currency by raising rates and austerity rather than risk economic collapse, hyperinflation and a mad max chaotic world. His timing forecast is 2020.
That said, the best way to raise question about his theory is for someone to give evidence of a major economic power whose currency died of hyperinflation rather than a debt crisis like Armstrong argues. It is a theory I wrote about several other possible scenarios here.
Yes and he often posts a bullish scenario one week and a bearish the next. And he only repost the calls that turn out to be correct.
What a coil on silver - if it trades any narrower you won't be able to scalp 1 cent...
The indicators on AGQ are crawling the midline - TSI, MACD. So perhaps we have to wait for big bad Bennie to speak before we get a massive move (in either direction)
Place your bets, place your bets... :P
"But at some point, this will impact the US and force the central banks to raise interest rates and undertake austerity to save the currency from hyperinflation and at the expense of banks, corporations and citizens (i.e no further bailouts and possible defaults on debt)"
I agree with your general comment, but would add that productive citizens who have amassed capital necessary for investment and growth are being blocked right now from doing what they do best in a capitalist system. A raising of interest rates and undertaking austerity measures would free that capital up to stimulate new growth. I know you know all this, I'm just trying to remind people that there was a time, not long ago at all, when something like QE wasn't looked upon as a savior but as a destroyer.
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
Oh good grief!
Wayne Campbell: No Way!
Garth Algar: Way!
I am probably just confusing the issure but fwiw, you may be confusing DCL with a failed daily cycle, failed c-wave, etc. The lower trendline that needs to be broken is currently at 1580 and rising. 1556 is the bottom for the entire upcoming c-wave advance.
If gold holds the 10dma (closing basis) its likely crawling the 75dma waiting for the 10 to catch up in a second DC. Were seeing that resitance at the 75dma I was expecting.
Last edited by William Wallace; 06-19-2012 at 10:45 AM.
Give me the strength to die well. ~William Wallace
@ Steve RE. oil Stocks
Trader Jeff Clark has a new buy signal for oil stocks.
...But at some point, this will impact the US and force the central banks to raise interest rates and undertake austerity to save the currency from hyperinflation and at the expense of banks, corporations and citizens (i.e no further bailouts and possible defaults on debt).
I disagree with this point, Armstrong thinks the raise in rates and austerity will happen here, but I think it happens in Europe. In fact it's already happening in Europe and at some point they will raise rates to maintain their single mandate of price stability. If the ECB managed the Euro like the FED managed the $$ it would be at parity right now. The politicians in washington do not have the political will to cut spending. We've got two presidential candidates who will not cut spending significantly. We haven't even had an approved budget since Obama took office.
At the end of the day HI will happen to the $$ b/c year after year the USA spends $3.6 billion/day more than this nation actually has and they cover the shortfall with printed money. I can't see other nations around the world accepting funny money for real goods in perpetuity. The other players will turn to the euro b/c it's the only viable alternative. Despite its imperfections the Euro is a solid currency managed for price stability. There's some printing going on via LTRO, etc. but as a currency bloc there isn't a trade deficit like the USA. The crisis in Europe is a debt/solvency problem, not a currency problem. The PIIGS will have to default and start over by producing as much as they consume. No nation can have something for nothing forever, and that includes the reserve currency.
The Dollar is clearly in a new DC that topped on day 1.
Give me the strength to die well. ~William Wallace
I know oil is searching out 1, 2, and 3.5 year lows. Today may be day 1 of the 3.5 year cycle, but big red candle on $wtic. I believe the oil cycles are not the most realiable. Keep hearing $75.
Junior miners are outperforming the majors. I sold the last of my NUGT and rolled into GDXJ and added to my FSM. Looking to add more junior miners.
Pick ur brains: Any precedent for that? What does that imply? And if so, do you think it's related to gold possibly being in its 2nd dc?
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
Hmm, I didn't notice in how many diff. time frames GDXJ outperforms NUGT. Might do same
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
So you expect we are in DC #2 now? This has been a very interesting daily cycle, or mix of 2 daily cycles. Not really a good way to put a trendline on a 1st daily cycle andshow a break of the line to indicate a cycle low.
Someone pinch me.
I believe the dollar is oversold and due for some relief. Makes me wonder about oil.
WTIC looks more like a new DC that topped on day 1. More in line with a final DC of a multi-year low.
Last edited by spikeiii; 06-19-2012 at 11:16 AM.
Personally, I believe that the possible June 6 DCL is off the table now, or yesterday would be another DCL.
EDIT: June 6
Last edited by spikeiii; 06-19-2012 at 11:23 AM.
NUGT is still below the sell point, so if you got out of all your NUGT, you got the best price since early April. So I see no harm in getting a position back here and ride with the current plan.
Yes, but the problem with switching frequently is that the asset you move to is the one that suddenly becomes the least performing.
Sorry, confused by your May 6 date. Do you mean June 6? We're talking about gold or dollar? If gold, and we're in 2nd DC, I don't understand 1st.Personally, I believe that the possible May 6 DCL is off the table now, or yesterday would be another DCL.
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
I agree. He draws SO MANY pretty charts that he is wrong and right very often. He also seems to force the issue, drawing multi year trend lines of two points only where one of them is the current price. Don't care for them to be honest.
For longer term hold, do you think GDXJ offers at least as much as NUGT with less risk?
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
6/22/10 to 8/6/10, Dollar topped on day 2. That would imply that the Dollar IC topped on week 4 and gold is in a second DC most likely.
Give me the strength to die well. ~William Wallace
I wouldn't be suprised in the least.
Give me the strength to die well. ~William Wallace
There is no hard and fast rule for price movements, a raw complete cycle is simply a Low-High-Low. But in general what you describe are the characteristics of the majority of Cycles. This is partly why I have said I expect marginal new highs, followed by a drop into the 1st DCL. But again its not a rule.
The other observation that I can not stress enough is that Daily Cycles are not often clearly forming cycles. Unless you're day trading, ignore them, they can be hard to predict in real-time and they don't help one's longer term outlook. The Daily Cycle becomes more important after the 2nd DCL because at this point the cycle is approaching the mid-point. the mid-point is where traders/investors should become much more conservative and defensive.
wow. just looked at that on chart. Sorry but pls. walk through how if dollar IC topped on wk 4, it implies second gold DC.
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
Not in performance, not even close. But certainly risk adjusted return, yes.
"The other observation that I can not stress enough is that Daily Cycles are not often clearly forming cycles. Unless you're day trading, ignore them, they can be hard to predict in real-time and they don't help one's longer term outlook. The Daily Cycle becomes more important after the 2nd DCL because at this point the cycle is approaching the mid-point. the mid-point is where traders/investors should become much more conservative and defensive. "
Now that helped.
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
Do you mean if you are using it to goose rtn by trading in and out? Or as long-term hold. I thought NUGT as l/t hold only beats GDXJ in shortest time frames.
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
A typical dollar IC is 25-30+ weeks, IF the dollar topped on week 4 and is to drift lower for several weeks I would expect to see Gold continue to push higher now, but a second DC is not a definite here, we could see gold move into a DCL on a Dollar dead cat bounce, or simply because we are still in a 1st DC...the dollar and gold don't always trade inverse to one another.
Last edited by William Wallace; 06-19-2012 at 11:35 AM.
Give me the strength to die well. ~William Wallace
Hi everybody,
Sold back my Cac, Dax and S&P bought yesterday ( 1329 on S&P)... It seems a bit overbought now...
Not that the HUI should be indicative, but its weak, and a the snp is overbought... a nice dip tomorrow would be in line with what Poly is expecting as a headfake to the downside, before this rally continues.
I have yet to see a better explanation that stands up to history and reality and am currently in the "muddle through" scenario with a possibility of a world wide debt crisis event view. The crux of this hyperinflation/debt crisis debate comes down to the question will US politicians destroy the economy and allow the currency to collapse and permit the US to enter a mad max chaotic world? Let's face it - no one has the answer here but many people have opinions. And if I had to take a position I would venture that politicians would go down the path of austerity and higher rates like they have done in the past. There is precedence for this - Volker in 80s with interest rate rise and as recent as Clinton in 90s with a balanced budget.
To me what is being described is currency debasement like the Romans and many countries have done (and not hyperinflation). The question as to whether other countries will accept funny money comes down to the continued economic and military strength of the US to back the deficit government spending (money printing as measured by the debt/GDP ratio). As long as there is demand for the US dollar from their exported goods and reserve based commodity transactions supported by the US military there will not be hyperinflation. If the US economy collapses than the possibility of hyperinflation is more probable and this is one precursor for hyperinflation to be taken seriously. Though before we get close to this kind of decision point, I expect the US will enter into some kind of a war. That said, I tend to think the US reserve currency importance will diminish over time and the currency will continue to depreciate along with other fiat currencies. An improved Euro or alternative/gold backed currency are all possibilities but there still needs to some dramatic changes before this becomes practical.
[Note the trade deficit is exaggerated by the fact that the US dollar is the reserve currency. That is, foreign countries needs US dollars to complete international transactions (buy oil) by design. Also since the Japanese Earthquake (and with aging Japanese population), Japan is now running trade deficits and with their high debt/GDP ratio look to face hyperinflation/debt crisis before the US. I find it interesting how they operating like a reserve currency and now also transacting with China in Japanese dollar].
For me to get serious about the possibility of hyperinflation I think we need to see economic collapse in US (i.e. debt/GDP ratio at least greater than the 200% of Japan) and a diminished US military.
Leveraged 3X funds have to reset trades every single day, so you won't get 3X long-term. Just compare the charts to the index.
Last edited by spikeiii; 06-19-2012 at 11:53 AM.
Thinking about this - this is what those of us who are buying gold to "store wealth" are effectively doing. They are removing the money supply out of circulation and thereby reducing the velocity of money and increasing the deflationary pressures.
Gold is the "strike metal". If your buying and hoarding gold you are going on "strike" from the economy. Dropping out.
"It takes courage to be a Pig!" Barton Biggs (1932 – 2012)
yep, that's the other issue.
Wer die Wahl hat, hat die Qual.
Borrowers are on strike too, etc., etc. Why do you think interest rates are negative?
How about employers?
We still have to sell gold to pay the monthly expenses.
The Addams Family...
Last edited by spikeiii; 06-19-2012 at 12:25 PM.
I don't want to be Mr Gloomy... they all point back to the gap.
HAL 9000: I've just picked up a fault in the AE35 unit. It's going to go 100% failure in 72 hours.I don't want to be Mr Gloomy... they all point back to the gap.
GLD honoring Chopstick from yesterday. Now what?
Thank you Sensei!I don't want to be Mr Gloomy... they all point back to the gap.
sorry, what is HAL 9000 and AE35 please? I have never been good with abrev.
HAL 9000, the computer from 2001 A Space Odyssey.
The AE 35 was another computer in that same film.
Hello Dave....
Last edited by MrMiyagi; 06-19-2012 at 12:45 PM.
Open the pod door, Hal.
Don't follow me! My trading tools are a box of crayons, a magic eight-ball, and a big bottle of scotch.
The novel explains that HAL is unable to resolve a conflict between his general mission to relay information accurately and orders specific to the mission requiring that he withhold from Bowman and Poole the true purpose of the mission. With the crew dead, he reasons, he would not need to be lying to them. He fabricates the failure of the AE-35 unit so that their deaths would appear accidental.
$GLD inflows of $378m over the last week, erasing more than half of its net ouflows quarter-to-date
"It takes courage to be a Pig!" Barton Biggs (1932 – 2012)
Thanks for your answer. I am rather new to cycles. Traded them since late 2010. I trade rather volatile futures, hence i have calculated on how to protect yourself late in a daily cycle. The plan is to sell the contracts and take a part of the gains, and buy options with a short experationday. If the dcl hit the options get worthless and if u get a surprice on the upside you have continues gains through the options. If u now end up very late in a stretched cycle with optionsgains u can protect them too buy exchange the options to once with a higher strike. Once the dcl hits and the options gets worthless, u go back to future contracts.
This morning i sold half of my silver contracts and bought augustoptions with strike 30. if we get a dcl in silver i buy back my contracts, and if silver rally i have optiongains. Only problem, i am left in the mud if silver continues sideway for 1 more month :(
You do nice work Mr M. Nothing new to report from the extended hours camp.I don't want to be Mr Gloomy... they all point back to the gap.
"I am convinced that life is 10% what happens to me and 90% how I react to it.....we are in charge of our Attitudes" Charles Swindoll
ah ah, got it!HAL 9000, the computer from 2001 A Space Odyssey.
The AE 35 was another computer in that same film.
Hello Dave....
If the equities market is anticipating more easing from the Fed as Twist expires and/or to support the euro, someone ought to let the PM traders know. Equities up nicely, dollar down...and PMs? This may be the coil that quickly reverses tomorrow. Miners are looking (relatively) strong and I suspect that will be the indication that the metals dip is short-lived.
Like a rabbit, nibbling on a bit of TZA here. Probably early...
SPX is moving exactly as i expected out of the June 4th ICL. It's going to be very interesting to see how it reacts up in the 1,378 area, but I do believe it gets that high at some point in the next 2 weeks. Equities are one MASSIVE SHORT OPP, but there is always the fear of a big breakout above 1,422 before this opp. I don't expect it, but then the FED has influence over the market.
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