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Monday, July 1st - Happy Canada Day!!!

This is a discussion on Monday, July 1st - Happy Canada Day!!! within the The Lounge forums, part of the Bull Bear Talk Forums category; Let's party like it's 1867....

  1. #1
    I never sleep! Rob L's Avatar

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    Monday, July 1st - Happy Canada Day!!!

    Let's party like it's 1867.

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    Last edited by Rob L; 07-01-2013 at 12:34 AM.
    "What if everything is an illusion and nothing exists? In that case, I definitely overpaid for my carpet."

    -Woody Allen

  2. #2
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    Posted Thursday of last week, #162 5 pm or so,

    " Quote Originally Posted by Metal Head View Post
    You mentioned a while back that sentiment in gold needs to get even more bearish before bottoming... aren't we there yet from this price action? Miners near 210 HUI, gold dipping below 1200... relentless selling and oversold indicators everywhere. All media basically against PMs, calling this bull is over. What else are you looking for and need to see it being rejected enough?
    The round number 1200 is a reasonable bounce point."

    SD Reply: In fact, what we have just witnessed is breakaway gap, exhaustion gap, rejection of exhaustion via this extension, today, and a giant opportunity to see today's gap fully filled. The odds of this exhaustion gap getting filled are around 90%, which are very high. However, my guess is it will be a very ugly picture. What I expected the other day is what highly probably will happen, but I can't tell you exactly what day.. but within 2 weeks very, very high probability. So, the 50 points up is very real and very low risk. But the ride up there will be bumpy and shocking in the beginning. "

    Comment today, Monday: We are less than 10 points away from the end of the free money. A tight stop on 1/2 as the profits are in. The balance will ride to 1250, maybe as early as the opening. 30 and 40 solid points with very low risk is an excellent trade. It's Miyagi style, but with very low risk.

    After 1250, it's god's money til there's another set up of low risk. The market can ride maybe to 1300 but the pullback will probably be steep and thus without a close and lagging stop, one will lose much if not all the money now on paper.
    Last edited by slumdog; 07-01-2013 at 01:34 AM.
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    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    Frikkin hot this week Mr Lowe, I don't like that a bit...
    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
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  4. #4
    I never sleep! Rob L's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrMiyagi View Post
    Frikkin hot this week Mr Lowe, I don't like that a bit...
    After 10 months of dark sky and a ton of rain, I welcome heat and clear skies. Fear not, Mr.M, it'll be raining and dark before you know it.
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    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    Spikey-spikey happening in the market futures, I'm curious how it will pan out tomorrow.
    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
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    "This is it make no mistake about it. This is it! The waiting is over!
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    Tex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawaiifive0 View Post
    "This is it make no mistake about it. This is it! The waiting is over!
    Agreed bottom is in. Dips should be bought... I have started a position, and will add on dips.

    Looking to go long SnP too.
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    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  8. #8
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    stopped out of gold 1240. missed 1250.

    a huge gap is yawning down to 1210. 1200 is a round number.

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    GDXJ 1-4 reverse split is effective today at the open.

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    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    Not seeing anything to warrant the overnight enthusiasm, more likely just thin trade. ISM numbers out this morning and these should move the market.
    "Until we see what we are, we cannot take steps to become what we should be" ~ Charlotte P. Gilman

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    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    The June prediction tournament has closed, I will work out the winners today and get back to you.

    July is open, post your picks here:
    Monthly Prediction Tournament - July
    "Until we see what we are, we cannot take steps to become what we should be" ~ Charlotte P. Gilman

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    Tex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    Not seeing anything to warrant the overnight enthusiasm, more likely just thin trade. ISM numbers out this morning and these should move the market.
    Equities shrugged off bad data from China.
    The snp in my opinion is looking to surprise to the upside. For selfish reasons, Im hoping for a dip to buy though
    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

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    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tex View Post
    Equities shrugged off bad data from China.
    The snp in my opinion is looking to surprise to the upside. For selfish reasons, Im hoping for a dip to buy though
    Could be. New highs from here could only mean run-away blow-off IMO.
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  14. #14
    Tex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    Could be. New highs from here could only mean run-away blow-off IMO.
    ...and when long, I would welcome it
    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

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    I'm one of the Gang Paul_K's Avatar

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    Copper is very strong this morning. Where is this in it's cycle? Is copper coming back from the dead?
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    Dollar is key to gold.

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    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    The June prediction tournament has closed, I will work out the winners today and get back to you.

    July is open, post your picks here:
    Monthly Prediction Tournament - July
    June Winners are:

    CATFISH S&P with 1,611 actual was 1,610.37

    LOOKSIT GOLD with 1,234 actual was $1,232.10

    CONGRATS! Silver coin and a lottery chance for the end of year drawing.

    Send me your address via PM.
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    I'm one of the Gang Paul_K's Avatar

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    "time chart considers the 2008 low as 0%, and uses the all-time high of 2011 as the 100% measurement. " Of particular note here is the 38.2% nails the 2009 high and the 161.8% nails our current low."

    The TSI Trader. How to trade the stock market using the True Strength Index
    Dollar is key to gold.

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    Not very encouraging charts from Barry Ritholz:

    Is Gold Overdue for a Bounce? | The Big Picture

    “Here comes the bad news: The bounce in a commodity like Gold — or its primary trading vehicle, GLD — is less likely to achieve that sort of happy ending. The bull market is broken, the prior narrative has utterly failed, and is no longer taken seriously, except by yellow metal jihadists and other assorted suckers.”

    Look @ the charts in his posting.

  19. #19
    Tex
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    Too many bears and pessimists now (crowded trade).
    Its getting boring.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Not very encouraging charts from Barry Ritholz:

    Is Gold Overdue for a Bounce? | The Big Picture

    “Here comes the bad news: The bounce in a commodity like Gold — or its primary trading vehicle, GLD — is less likely to achieve that sort of happy ending. The bull market is broken, the prior narrative has utterly failed, and is no longer taken seriously, except by yellow metal jihadists and other assorted suckers.”

    Look @ the charts in his posting.
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  20. #20
    jin
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    Hi, Cedrec, Do you have a target for USO?:-) TIA.

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    Poly what about this mornings trade? I dont have much time this morning...

  22. #22
    Tex
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    Oil, copper, telegraphing higher equities.
    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  23. #23
    Tex
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    Initiating snp long, will only add on dips.
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    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  24. #24
    Neo
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    Wiseguy closed his long position in Gold.
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  25. #25
    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    ISM numbers were OK, but nothing to get excited about. Barely positive while, employment showed contraction. I guess the new normal is anything not in contraction is good. But not good enough for the corporate top line, not weak enough for the FED to do anything else.
    "Until we see what we are, we cannot take steps to become what we should be" ~ Charlotte P. Gilman

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  26. #26
    Tex
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    To me this is starting to look like a day 5 on equities more and more by each passing day and action.
    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tex View Post
    To me this is starting to look like a day 5 on equities more and more by each passing day and action.
    what does that mean?

  28. #28
    Tex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pablo View Post
    what does that mean?
    Depends who you ask.
    To me, personally, it should result in new highs on the SnP... so a trip above 1685
    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

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    what is up with SAND?
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  30. #30
    I'm one of the Gang Dialogue's Avatar

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    S&P now one point above its 50dma, but loitering there. Decision time!

  31. #31
    I'm one of the Gang Icon's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Neo View Post
    Wiseguy closed his long position in Gold.
    Who is wiseguy? Did he ride it all the way down, and close longs on this small bounce?

    Thaanks in advance....

  32. #32
    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tex View Post
    Depends who you ask.
    To me, personally, it should result in new highs on the SnP... so a trip above 1685
    But there is absolutely nothing unusual about this move when looking at a final DC. You see counter strength before drops in every final DC.

    Again not saying it has to be, just pointing out the action is normal. Bears need to worry with a break of the downtrend, currently around 1,634-36. Then a close above 1,655 should go long.
    "Until we see what we are, we cannot take steps to become what we should be" ~ Charlotte P. Gilman

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  33. #33
    Tex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poly View Post
    But the there is absolutely nothing unusual about this move when looking at a final DC. You see counter strength before drops in every final DC.

    Again not saying it has to be, just pointing out the action is normal. Bears need to worry with a break of the downtrend, currently around 1,634-36. Then a close above 1,655 should go long.
    I agree with you completely, nothing about this action is unusual, its just that we have different cycle counts and thus different expectations.
    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  34. #34
    KHC
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    Sold ANV July Calls at $0.10 (bought at $0.05) because I don't like ANV's price action today.

    Keep SAND July $7.50 Lottery Calls because SAND is freakingly strong....
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  35. #35
    Tex
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    Financials at 52 week highs.
    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  36. #36
    Neo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Icon View Post
    Who is wiseguy? Did he ride it all the way down, and close longs on this small bounce?

    Thaanks in advance....
    A trader a few BBT members follow for a while. He has had several good calls, but also a bad ones this year. The purpose of these posts is to compare the strategies of the different traders some of us follow.
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  37. #37
    I'm part of the BBT furniture Gracegift's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Icon View Post
    Who is wiseguy? Did he ride it all the way down, and close longs on this small bounce?

    Thaanks in advance....

    Wiseguy Trading - Automated Trading Systems by Wiseguy Trader
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  38. #38
    BBT Aficionado MikeS's Avatar

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    lol NUGT and DUST both on BOW...take your pick
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  39. #39
    I'm one of the Gang Catfish's Avatar

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    U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI June 2013
    50.9 vs. 50.5 exp. vs. 49.0 prev.
    Mfg PMI Employment
    48.7 vs. n/a exp. vs. 50.1 prev.

  40. #40
    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    Intraday NYMO at +40 range, still above the 20BBand and very very cozy with the 10.
    NYADV over 2300.
    VIX day's low.
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  41. #41
    Tex
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    Rocket!
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    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  42. #42
    I never sleep! Rob L's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tex View Post
    Rocket!
    Platinum is 'where it's at' today.
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  43. #43
    Tex
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    Its make it or break it day for the USD... new highs today on day 8, deciding if it shall be a LT or RT cycle.
    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

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    silver lagging, any concern?

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    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tex View Post
    Its make it or break it day for the USD... new highs today on day 8, deciding if it shall be a LT or RT cycle.
    Needs to drop regardless. A HCL should form first, then it will decide to LT or RT.
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    I never sleep! Rob L's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by drey View Post
    silver lagging, any concern?
    Not to me - it's only one day. A longer duration is needed before one makes a comparison.
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  47. #47
    KHC
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    weekend-sentiment-summary-june-week-4.html

    Scroll down to the bottom and you'll see the sentiment in Gold/Silver.
    Sentiments are just so bearish out there....
    Even with this rally, I don't think the sentiment will be any better.

  48. #48
    Super Moderator Poly's Avatar

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    Still like the reward potential on shorting oil here at the top of the triangle. I've added a fair bit more on my personal account, stop is not far above.
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  49. #49
    KHC
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    I think Dollar topped on last Friday and Dollar is seeking its DCL now.

    The question is whether Dollar index will drop below the prior low at 80.51....

  50. #50
    I'm one of the Gang Persephone's Avatar

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    Closed /ym long; going short.
    /cl too, at 98. Thanks, Poly!
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  51. #51
    Tex
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    Quote Originally Posted by KHC View Post
    I think Dollar topped on last Friday and Dollar is seeking its DCL now.

    The question is whether Dollar index will drop below the prior low at 80.51....
    The USD made a new high today...
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    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  52. #52
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    Closed my NUGT position this morning at 6.20 -- took a nice chunk out of that bounce from 4.55. Looking for a bullish retest of the downward trending channel to play another leg up. Otherwise, if we flush above and close below that trend line today, DUST would look pretty juicy for another leg down on the miners. Gotta be nimble in these vehicles...
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    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    Index and ETF option volumes mid-day.
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  54. #54
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    If there is anyone in BBT land that feels that they are missing this move, please don't. Neither gold nor GDX has crossed the 50dma. In fact, there is a lot of work just to get to that point.

    GOLD

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    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob L View Post
    Neither gold nor GDX has crossed the 50dma. In fact, there is a lot of work just to get to that point.
    GLD has been pushed back by the 20sma many, many, many times so far this year. It has not been convincingly over it since last summer.
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    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
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  56. #56
    I'm part of the BBT furniture Cedric's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by jin View Post
    Hi, Cedrec, Do you have a target for USO?:-) TIA.
    Hi Jin,

    Waiting for USO to break out above 35 for a valide buy confirmatipn (IHS). I am still very bullish in Oil
    Still Cac short for intermediate term and buying very soon silver & miners but not yet.
    The dollar should roll over soon.
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  57. #57
    KHC
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tex View Post
    The USD made a new high today...
    Oops. I must be blind...

  58. #58
    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    Feels like we're in Saudi Arabia.. 9:24am and 24 Celsius...
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    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
    Also.. I'm not the real Mr Miyagi; he's been dead since 2005.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob L View Post
    If there is anyone in BBT land that feels that they are missing this move, please don't. Neither gold nor GDX has crossed the 50dma. In fact, there is a lot of work just to get to that point.

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    This guy writes that the miner's rejecting the 50dma back in early June is a tell for how much they're likely to zoom up over the next 4 months--by an average of 50% or more. This has been posted previously here but it makes for interesting reading. His predictions were made on June 21.

    Final Capitulation Coming in Precious Metals | The Daily Gold
    Besser tot als Rot.

  60. #60
    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    VIX option report; traders rolling over to August.
    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
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  61. #61
    jin
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    Thanks Cedric. On one hand, dollar will be soft for a few days, that has to affect oil price, on the other it is on top of channel as poly said, and is at least for now, putting up a topping candle on USO. I have put on a very small put, and see if it will bite. I will keep your 35 in mind.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    Hi Jin,

    Waiting for USO to break out above 35 for a valide buy confirmatipn (IHS). I am still very bullish in Oil
    Still Cac short for intermediate term and buying very soon silver & miners but not yet.
    The dollar should roll over soon.
    Persephone, Cedric and froll61 like this.

  62. #62
    KHC
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tex View Post
    The USD made a new high today...
    Quote Originally Posted by KHC View Post
    Oops. I must be blind...
    Hmmm....I checked finviz.com, it shows the high is on Friday. Dollar hasn't made another high on Monday...

    Futures USD Chart Daily

    Tex, where did you see Dollar make a new high on Monday?

  63. #63
    Tex
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    Quote Originally Posted by KHC View Post
    Hmmm....I checked finviz.com, it shows the high is on Friday. Dollar hasn't made another high on Monday...

    Futures USD Chart Daily

    Tex, where did you see Dollar make a new high on Monday?
    I'm showing...
    A high of 83.229 today and a high of 83.171 for Friday on the index (not futures/contract)
    The futures contract itself (Sept.) had a high of 83.43 on Friday and a high of 83.47 today.
    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  64. #64
    KHC
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tex View Post
    I'm showing...
    A high of 83.229 today and a high of 83.171 for Friday on the index (not futures/contract)
    The futures contract itself (Sept.) had a high of 83.43 on Friday and a high of 83.47 today.
    Okay. Somehow stockcharts.com and finviz.com both showed a high of 83.60 on Friday. Not sure what's wrong here....

  65. #65
    TZ
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    I think it is very likely the low in gold was last thurs/fri. All the signs seemed to be there.

    I still, however, give gold a 1 out of 5 on the TZ bullish scale since we have not YET technically switched any indicators to the other side. That can happen very quickly from here and I will start getting long (rapidly if necessary), but I'm not gonna get emotional and jump without the plan falling into place (learned that lesson over last year). I like to trade with leverage and that isn't warranted yet although getting 1x position is likely close (I already have a core which never changed).
    Rob L, KHC, Dan and 2 others like this.

  66. #66
    I'm part of the BBT furniture Cedric's Avatar

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    Buying USLV 5.80

  67. #67
    I'm part of the BBT furniture Cedric's Avatar

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    Waveridah,

    If gdx close above 25 (inside your flag daily pattern), your flag GDX pattern will fail (best trades comes from fail pattern)
    Let s see the close...

  68. #68
    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    I have some free time here, a couple of updates.



    Poly, Rob L, Tiger5 and 2 others like this.
    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
    Also.. I'm not the real Mr Miyagi; he's been dead since 2005.

  69. #69
    I'm part of the BBT furniture Cedric's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by jin View Post
    Thanks Cedric. On one hand, dollar will be soft for a few days, that has to affect oil price, on the other it is on top of channel as poly said, and is at least for now, putting up a topping candle on USO. I have put on a very small put, and see if it will bite. I will keep your 35 in mind.
    Wait just before the close Jin, I guess that the candle will look more nice
    jin likes this.

  70. #70
    I never sleep! Hawaiifive0's Avatar

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    Forgot to mention that I bought NUGT in size @ 6 with stop below ATL. Praying now!

  71. #71
    I never sleep! Hawaiifive0's Avatar

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    Also bought LXFT @ 18.52 with stop below ATL and Long July calls for SHLD @ 44.

  72. #72
    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
    Also.. I'm not the real Mr Miyagi; he's been dead since 2005.

  73. #73
    MBM21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawaiifive0 View Post
    Forgot to mention that I bought NUGT in size @ 6 with stop below ATL. Praying now!
    Imo, you shouldnt be trading on hope! At least move your stop to break even to flatten your risk here...
    froll61 likes this.

  74. #74
    KHC
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    Today is Day 2 of a new daily cycle. I think the probability is very high to see Gold rally 7~12 more trading days
    Persephone, Cedric, Tex and 2 others like this.

  75. #75
    I'm part of the BBT furniture Gracegift's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by KHC View Post
    Today is Day 2 of a new daily cycle. I think the probability is very high to see Gold rally 7~12 more trading days
    Then give the bull a 1/4 flip
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    If any race can be vilified on racial grounds, no race is safe. Jim Denison

  76. #76
    jin
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    LOL, that is what I am afraid of. :-)
    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    Wait just before the close Jin, I guess that the candle will look more nice
    Persephone and Cedric like this.

  77. #77
    Yo
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    Long SPY 161 strike puts at 69 cents - expiring Friday.

  78. #78
    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yo View Post
    Long SPY 161 strike puts at 69 cents - expiring Friday.
    NYMO getting more and more "toppy" everyday.

    Long term though, NYSI turned up on Thursday.
    Yo likes this.
    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
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  79. #79
    jin
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    Ok, Mr. M, you have to explain what $NYMO "toppy" mean here. Because it is high above BBand?

    Quote Originally Posted by MrMiyagi View Post
    NYMO getting more and more "toppy" everyday.

    Long term though, NYSI turned up on Thursday.

  80. #80
    The 10K Club- You only wish! MrMiyagi's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by jin View Post
    Ok, Mr. M, you have to explain what $NYMO "toppy" mean here. Because it is high above BBand?
    It has been above the 20BBand for 3 days running now. My bet is bearish follow up but I don't know much.
    Persephone likes this.
    Don't follow or make any trades based on any chart, guess, study, joke or prediction I make.
    Seriously. Don't follow me. Just don't. I only guess at things.
    Also.. I'm not the real Mr Miyagi; he's been dead since 2005.

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